Thread by @DrPhillipLee

This is right and has good advice for @UKLabour. It won’t be enough to get rid of this awful Government though and get the UK back on track. Here’s why…and what needs to happen next theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

The #LocalElections2022 confirmed a permanent shift. Labour isn’t going to win back all of the ‘Red Wall’. London is increasingly politically & economically separate from the rest of the UK. Scotland is still SNP dominated. Opposition parties haven’t caught up & must change more

The Lib Dems made good progress. Worth remembering, though, that disillusioned Tory voters find it much easier to switch parties in local elections than in general elections. Their support is still fragile. They now need tax and business policies attractive to ‘soft’ Tory voters

The Greens also made progress. But our flawed electoral system means this will likely help the Tories at the next general election. In Wokingham in 2019 the Green candidate didn’t campaign or attend the count. Their 1000+ votes could make the difference next time. Time to wise up

Tory strategists will conclude all’s to play for at the next general election. Expect the Government to spend tactically to ‘buy’ votes. They will play dirty. Changing leader would help. (It shouldn’t: all the alternatives are bad; it’s just that the public doesn’t know this yet)

But that will only happen if Sue Gray’s report is so damning about Johnson’s Downing St flat party that he can’t be defended any more. Now that Starmer is embroiled in his own #Partygate, Johnson might keep going 😬 and I now expect him to call a general election in autumn 2024

Labour needs to accept that the electoral map has changed since 2016. Some changes are permanent. Labour should be working Wycombe just as hard as Wakefield. It also needs to continue marginalising the ‘hard’ left. For too many, they are still not an electable alternative

The Lib Dems need to do more to become a bearable home for ‘soft’ Tory voters. Their aims should be to help remove the Government and then ultimately replace the Tories as the alternative to Labour. Lib Dem electoral opportunities remain on the centre-right of UK politics

Our electoral system is biased in favour of the Tories, especially after boundary changes. Despite the woes it has inflicted, this Govt has 30 months to improve its electoral chances. I still fear it will get a small majority at the next election. Currently feels like 1990 to me