A rare tweetstorm brought on by #2000Mules, the 98% BS Dinesh DeSouza film that has MAGAs re-swallowing TRUMP'S BIG LIE whole. First, check out:
gregpalast.com/2000-mules-bel…
gregpalast.com/2000-mules-bel… 1/ @jennycohn1
Now add to all that this little chart: 2/
What does this show? It shows:

1) A Biden victory margin reduced by 5.5 million votes from the aggregate of tracking polls and 6 million votes from the national exit poll.

2) The Trump approval rating for these polls was 44.6% and 46.0% respectively. 3/
What does that tell us? It tells us that all these polls' samples were GENEROUS to Trump voters, showing HIGHER levels of support (approval) than Trump had been receiving at any time in the months before the election. Significantly higher... 4/
These polls - all of them - did NOT "oversample Democrats" or show any sign of bias to Biden - just the opposite.

So what REALLY needs explaining is where those 6 million Biden votes went - what could account for this egregious red shift for the nation as a whole?... 5/
Was it Republican "mules" stuffing ballot boxes (just as they accused Democrats and nonprofits of doing)? Was it Louis DeJoy and the USPS spiking ballots through late delivery or just "losing" them? Was it targeted mistabulation? Or AOTA?... 6/
It did not change the result for TRUMP (although he apparently was led to expect it would) but it avoided the embarrassment to the GOP of a 12 or 13 million vote national shellacking, and it sure spelled trouble for DEMOCRATS below the top of the ballot (as usual)... 7/
But WE didn't make a movie (unless you want to go back and watch Dorothy Fadiman's "Stealing America: Vote by Vote," or David Earnhardt's "UNCOUNTED: The New Math of American Elections," or the others, now decades old). THEY did... 8/
Which pretty much sums up this whole Alice-In-Wonderland nightmare. Don't look now but it's going to get worse. 9/9

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More from @JonathanSimon14

May 10
A rare tweetstorm brought on by #2000Mules, the 98% BS Dinesh DeSouza film that has MAGAs re-swallowing TRUMP'S BIG LIE whole. First, check out:
gregpalast.com/2000-mules-bel…

https://t.co/Uj8PTF4M4b
1/ @jennycohn1
Now add to all that this little chart: 2/ Image
What does this show? It shows:

1) A Biden victory margin reduced by 5.5 million votes from the aggregate of tracking polls and 6 million votes from the national exit poll.

2) The Trump approval rating for these polls was 44.6% and 46.0% respectively. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 31, 2021
The biggest mistake we're making is assuming that GOP office-holders, by virtue of serving and holding office in a democracy, therefore support that democracy and hold values compatible with its survival. 2/
THEY DO NOT. If they didn't before Trump, they now know that they cannot survive and hold power in a democratic United States - that is, they must undermine and destroy our democracy, the democracy that they ostensibly serve, in order to themselves survive politically. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24, 2020
OK, some "interesting" numbers re. US COVID REPORTED case and death rates by partisanship of state governor. The updated stats come from: nbcnews.com/health/health-….

It sure looks like some GREAT healthcare in those red states! I'll copy in the spreadsheets at the end, but... 1/
just to sum it up: If you're unlucky enough to live in a state with a Democratic governor, you are 4.15 times as likely to die from COVID as your lucky red-state counterpart. How did we arrive at that stunning figure?

First, you are 2.6 times as likely to come down with COVID 2/
Then, once you have been diagnosed with COVID, you are 1.6 times as likely to die from it.

So, you may well ask, WHAT IS GOING ON HERE? Is it that red states like FL and TX and OH and SD have just been so quick to social distance and so conscientious about it?

Hardly. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Sep 22, 2019
American "exceptionalism" is a particularly dangerous set of blinders and an inevitably fatal hubris that's eventually brought down EVERY empire. People are people, power is power, greed is greed, fear is fear, lust is lust, motives are motives, wherever and whenever...1/
That recognition should bring both empathy and humility. We have a right to be proud of our Constitution and diligent efforts to tame the Hobbesian beast. But we also would do well to acknowledge our many failures in that endeavor and many cruelties and injustices along the way.
And ultimately to understand that no nation has ever succeeded in perfecting humanity or eliminating its baser motives. At best, we build a framework with checks, balances, controls. But to think that simply because we're Americans we all play by the rules is willful blindness.3/
Read 5 tweets
Sep 12, 2019
I couldn't agree less. Exit polls are used around the world as validation tools - in spite of the very issues you point out. Too much eagerness not a problem (can't answer unless asked); nonparticipants (refusals) are recorded & factored in; lying is against interest and rare. 1/
That said, exit polls are certainly not perfect - there's quite a bit of art (the stratification algorithm, e.g.) to go with the science. But when we observe certain pervasive patterns (e.g., accurate for noncompetitive/nonsuspect races, red shift for competitive/suspect)...2/
...it speaks volumes and in fact is HIGHLY probative. Such second-order comparatives (see, e.g., 2016 National vs. Swing States attached) transcend the issues with a single exit poll. We would almost certainly NOT keep seeing such meta-patterns in the absence of targeted fraud.3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 29, 2019
We've got to keep up this fight. But I think we've ALSO got to realize how banana-peel slippery is the ground under our feet. The whole system's ultimate aim is transparently to remain non-transparent! Whatever sleight of legislative/administrative hand that takes. 1/
Like, for example, seizing on a touchscreen "crisis" to push "paper," while KNOWING that the computerized devices that will mark that paper for the voter are just another open invitation to rig. And like promoting the useless SEA act in place of the effective SAFE act. 2/
I've called it "One step up, two steps back" (with apologies to Bruce) and I believe it is why we don't need the SEA act but a SEA CHANGE. We need to wake America's voters up to the fact that this is THEIR democracy being destroyed and THEIR responsibility to SAVE it. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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