Thread by @Usherwood

While you wait for #QueensSpeech let's run through all the ways that up-ending the Northern Ireland Protocol is a bad idea

1/

Firstly, it's not a legally-viable option, under either the Protocol itself or under international law

Many details here:

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1522495882603675649?s=20&t=30h_d_c0hY8YD3nyH5x0zw

2/

Secondly, it's politically and geo-politically awful, in terms of fallout, blowback and general damage to the rules-based order just when there's a big war on about just that

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1523938749847162881

3/

Thirdly, it makes no sense in purely negotiating terms

Crashing the bus now won't improve the terms of the NIP, as I'll explain briefly

4/

Starting point is the idea of a BATNA (a best alternative to a negotiated agrt): i.e. what you can get inside a deal v. what you can get outside it

Explainer here:

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1138031566960111616?s=20&t=dD8Pqqn9aMZUf7KTKweh8Q

5/

That explainer sets out what to do if you're working out whether to make a deal in the first place, but it also holds if you're inside a deal already

6/

Again, calculation is simple: can I get more of what I need by defecting from the deal than from sticking to it?

Given economic, political, geopolitical & legal costs listed above, that's a v.high bar for UK govt to clear

7/

Even in narrow terms, ditching NIP to 'save the Good Friday Agt' doesn't work, because opening E-W carries implications for closing N-S, so threat to GFA is still there

8/

Crucially, EU's view is that UK can't afford to bin NIP (heightened by previous failed bluffs so to do), so no incentive to fold, even if this isn't a bluff

9/

In sum, UK doesn't have a credible play through rejecting NIP

But doesn't mean NIP is great, so most productive strategy is constructive engagement within NIP system

Boring, but much better chance of getting to a fair & stable outcome for all

/end