Stephen Drennan Profile picture
May 10 69 tweets 13 min read
Thoughts on the lineup.

I thought it would be Mane rested, not Salah, on the basis of how much they have played lately. Called the Robbo rest.

I thought Fabinho & Thiago might get a rest here - again as the 2 mids to start most recent games.
#AVLLIV | #LFC
Delighted Jones is getting a start.

Delighted to see Bobby back on the bench.

Thiago, Firmino, Salah, Origi - all players who can change a game off the bench if needed.

Come on you Reds!
Had to reset my router. Got it back to see a replay of a goal with Ali, Matip and Tsimikas (i think) lying in the box while Douglas Luis taps into an empty net.

No idea how that came about. It looked a fucking mess though in the aftermath.
Equaliser - just as much of a mess :D

Matip!!!
Matip challenges for a 50/50 loose ball in the box - spins up into the air - Jota challenges for it, breaks out wide - put back in, Matip slides in to score from 4 years.


Couldn't tell you. It was all a bit chaotic. No official assist given to him or anybody - suggesting it came off a Villa player before Matip put it in.
A few people have said this. I didn't see it though. Apparantly well off on the first ball, had a shot, saved, then they won the second ball put it in and scored?

That was a poor through ball from Jota. Diaz could do nothing with that. He carried it forward quite a long way but the ball was so straight Diaz could never get to it first.
Jota works hard at the front and presses - but he doesn't always make the right choices to do so. Just then, his press from the front opened up the space, Keita has to step up into it and they bypass our first two lines very easily.
John McGinn is looking a bit pigeon chested there. :D

Another scramble in the VIlla box. This one cleared. Game been a bit like that so far. Lots of spaces all over the place.
It will very much suit us. We can shred a team giving us this space. Eventually it will settle down and we will turn the screw a bit.

Oh... mane heads just wide. That was really close.
Ali has a moment. Wow.

Kicks the ball right at Watkins who is standing between him and Fabinho - ball breaks back to him thankfully, he miscontrols, spins, and desperately clears before Watkins can even really react. Phew.
Oh our line got caught on that set piece. Played the corner out deep, our line is stepping up and the Villa runners all get a charge on them. Ali caught in no mans land as the header flies over the bar.
Coutinho is very good at freeing himself from pressure and getting his head up as he did there.

That is the problem with giving up the space we do. You need constant pressure on the ball - Coutinho invites you to try and win it then whisks it away. Then he can pick you off.
Fabinho having a rough few minutes here. Now holding his hamstring. Ball is out of play and is now sitting down calling for the physio.

I said before kickoff I thought it would be him and Thiago rested purely on amount of games started lately. Surprised he wasn't.
On the flip side of that - maybe he didn't trust Hendo - Keita - Jones after that Brighton game where the midfield just evaporated and Brighton dominated the space between the lines. Hendo was in the box in open play trying to score when 2-0 up that game - it was nuts! :D
Fabinho walks off the pitch. No replacement ready yet so we play with 10. Hendo will come on shortly though.
Mane plays a loose pass towards Hendo who was on his heels a bit, then loses the 50/50, Tsimikas fouls to stop the counter, ref plays advantage, Naby eventually blocks a pass and wins it back, Hendo plays Diaz in down the right, massively overhit cross
Now Mane scores - but it is offside. I think Diaz was offside on the first pass some distance. Yep - about 5 yards on the replay.
What a ball by Trent fizzed into Keita on the penalty spot, but Keita can't sort his feet out quick enough and he misses his shot with the ball hitting his standing less.
*standing leg

Naby has the right idea pressing Coutinho there. Don't try to win the ball. Just be close enough that he can't get his head up and play forward pass. Make him think about moving sideways or backwards. Get too close he just skins you. Only needs to get it right once
Lovely balance and feet that from Jones to stand Coutinho skill, shimmy both ways, then break past him towards goal leaving him standing.
Jones really is just a whole bunch of talented things waiting to be put together and moulded into whatever you want him to be. The way he received the ball, unbalanced people with his movement, spins people, stop-starts in the box to make space, turns to face people - these are
qualities you specifically search out for in a player. They are hard things to do at the top level. That is why a lot of players just have no press resistance. We all say Hendo on the soccer am skills challenge, or that video he made as a kid - he can do things with a ball. But
doing them on a pitch, under constant pressure and with the self belief and confidence to keep doing them if you get caught in possession and the crowd groans. It is hard like.

Jones just has an outrageous amount of good things as a midfielder. And runs for days. I'll buy all
tickets to him being a future starter for us if nobody else is buying. Think he will be top quality for us.
Half time. A very scrappy, disjointed performance so far. The Fabinho injury didn't help. Came during our best period of the game... then Villa had the better of things after that until Hendo could get up to speed and the midfield could settle. We took control again the final 5
Went on a bit about Jones there - but I feel like he is one of those players that most people don't see the quality of simply because he is an atypical midfielder that would break through at a club like Liverpool.

He is someone you see breaking through at Lyon.
Thought he was excellent first half. Quietly our best player probably. Opens up spaces every time he gets it. Took a clattering from Coutinho too who was wound up :D
Player he reminds me most of is young Steve McManaman. But he isn't as direct as Macca - and that is because Macca was a winger when he broke through. And also because he wasn't in a dominant team trying to create space against low blocks every game.
Output usually comes later for midfielders/wingers. Both Gerrard and Lampard ramped up their numbers in mid-20s. Using Macca as the example again as a winger, he was averaging under 4 league goals a season until 23/24. Then 7, 6, 7, 11.

Barnes was 24 in his first big output season of 15 goals and 15 assists.
Coutinho

Aged 20, 3 goals
21, 5
22, 5
23, 8
24, 13
Anyway, you get the idea with that. Don't really look too hard at output from penetrative players in their breakthrough years. It tends to come later. Sometimes never does. But it isn't a problem because penetration is just as important as finishing in our system.
Jones taken out in front of the box.

Trent and Tsimikas over it. Shocked if it isn't Trent.
That looked really close. Seems to clip the side netting as it curls away
Coutinho looks like he is away from Virg after he slips. Virg gets back, wins the ball, leaves Coutinho on the deck.
Big tackle that from Tsimikas. Gets back and gets a toe on the ball before Watkins can get it out of his feet and shoot in the box.
Jota with a not very subtle push on Konsa. Gets 1v1, whistle goes. Ref brings it back for the FK.
Really feel like we are marginalizing Diaz on the right first half. Now on the left but hasn't got into the game yet either.
Nearing the hour mark. Would have said Thiago and Salah will come on then... but having already made one sub it changes things a little. Suspect we see Mo. Then Thiago later.


We don't really play with a CF.

It is better if you think of that position as an attacking midfielder as he does a lot of midfield work.

Jota does the attacking part well and the midfielder part poorly. Mane is good at both. And as it is so key to the
system, being able to do both parts of that job is crucial. Hence why Firmino was so crucial to us for so long

Jones off for Thiago. Which means Klopp sees the problem more in terms of control and sustaining - everything up to the final third - rather than the final third stuff
Quietened Villa down but not much of a threat yet ourselves.
Oh and Mane just scored. So scratch that! :D
Brilliant from Diaz. So happy we moved him onto the left second half. Stands up Mings, backs him into the box, opens up an angle for the short cross, puts it on Mane´s head a few yards out, nods it into the bottom corner.
Virg makes up 20 yards on Danny Ings from a standing start - gets into the box, takes it of him, then the late flag goes up.
Hendo left standing by a simple backheel on the touchline. Thiago comes across to cover the #6 position and losses the 50/50. High line picked off by the through ball. Ings 1v1. Big Ali save.
Salah on for Diaz. He moves across the pitch at the speed of a sloth getting a piggy back off a slug. Eat up those minutes lad!
Mo in behind with his first touch of the game, takes it away from Konsa, but leaves the keeper open to gets his hands on it in doing so.
Mo & Trent combine to work it down the right, Trent fizzes it in, cleared right in front of goal, back to Trent, smashes another across the box. Nobody gets a touch this time.

Oh and now Mings shits himself receiving under pressure and desperately puts it out for a throw.
Love that by Hendo. Pressures McGinn, doesn't dive in, stays in front of him, delays, delays, eventually turns him around to face away from our goal and the counter is long dead.

Textbook that. Defending isn't about making tackles. Descalation is FAR more important.
Watkins off for Bertrand Traore. Assume there is an injury there as he has looked their biggest threat all game.
Mings heads a corner out. Keita lets fly from fully 25 yards - it curls away from the post just wide.
Keita screaming at our forwards who are high up the pitch while we try to defend a throw in deep in our half. Salah and Mane get back to help out.

We are looking very tired.
Ings scored. Flag up for offside.

Replay shows he was miles off.

But we are needing to take the sting out of this here. We don't want 10 more minutes like the last 5.
Seeing lots of criticism. Listen, you want to be in a situation where you play every single game possible in a season and still in a title challenge in mid-May. BUT... that means your key players likely play a fucking tonne of football with games every 3 days for months.
So you will be tired at the end of games. You will have some slow starts. People will switch off. They are still human. There is still a point for them that it gets to you a bit. It happens.
So calm your arse with the moaning and excessive criticism. If your expectations are for us to put in performances that our dominant and 100mph for months on end then the problem is your expectations, not the reality.
My prediction before the game below. I expected a slow game that was scrappy, a battle, struggle to get going but we would find a way to squeeze out a result.
Mings being an idiot. His team chasing a goal and instead he is wanting to push Keita, hold onto the ball, waste time, throw it back eventually, get Moss to stop the game to have a word, kill whatever little momentum they have, waste about 90 seconds.
Keita now down with an 'injury' for another 30 seconds.

Ref blows the whistle. Full time. 1-2 win. Job done. Onto the final.
Expected goals mirrors the actual result pretty well. Villa had chances. Many were offside and so don't count. We had more and better quality chances overall.
Yeah. A lot of people who have absolutely no idea the physical and mental fatigue that you will have in our situation moaning that the players don't look as fresh and alive as they did in September.

I guess it doesn't happen in FIFA.



I think it counts as a 0. No shot = no xG which means no big chances which are based on xG models.
All eyes on Fabinho to see the extent of his injury. I fear that even the mildest of hamstring strains means he is out for 2 weeks and misses everything up the UCL final.

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More from @babuyagu

May 11
Just a reminder that assists are THE most variance suffering metric in football. Even more so than goals as there are fewer assists than goals AND they are entirely dependent on another player.

So when Kulusevski has 11 this season from an xA of a little over 5, that screams
regression to the mean.

NPxG + xA is very consistent with him.

19/20 Parma 0.46 per 90
20/21 Juve 0.45 per 90
21/22 Juve 0.49 per 90
21/22 Spurs 0.48 per 90
However his output - which remember is FAR more prone to variance than expected goals and expected assists are

19/20 Parma 0.55 per 90 (20% over)
20/21 Juve 0.33 per 90 (27% under)
21/22 Juve 0.47 per 90 (4% under)
21/22 Spurs 0.83 per 90 (83% over)
Read 10 tweets
May 11
Said this at the time. That we would live to regret chasing the only opposition to a monopoly out of town with pitch forks.

When your list of 'good guys' are Qatar, Boris the Bastard, Rupert Murdochs empire, Sportswashing teams, FIFA & UEFA - you know you have wandered down the
wrong fucking path and need to re-evaluate. They are the very people ruining everything good in football. If they are opposed to something and trying to whip up a pitchfork wielding mob to back them - take a breath and wonder if it might be a moment instead for calm heads rather
than heightened emotion to force you to act, not think. Maybe we should sit down and hear them out. Maybe we should speak to both sides and get football to change for us fans now that we finally have some leverage.... nope too late. We fucked it. Doh!
Read 4 tweets
May 11
I don't think Moss was biased towards Liverpool. I think he just blows the whistle when he gets too far from play as he can't keep up.

And naturally, as Liverpool the slower attacking side and Villa the quicker attacking side then the decisions against Villa were more noticeable
He gave 12 fouls against Liverpool last night and 10 against Villa. This despite us only defending for half the amount of time Villa were and us attempting the majority of the dribbles in the game.
The PGMOL have a problem in that there doesn't seem to be an abundance of quality young referees coming through.

This is why the EPL has by far the oldest list of referees in the top five leagues. The others are sticking to at or close to FIFA's previous retirement age of 45.
Read 4 tweets
May 11
There is this weird assumption that if I use stats I didn't watch the game. I literally sat here doing a thread following the game.

I use stats to question or quantify what I saw. I am using them to weigh my opinion to see if it is fair and accurate or if my biases are running
wild and created a distorted view. No, data won't see everything but I also specifically look out for the things that data won't pick up for that reason - because I understand the data well enough to know what is collected and what isn't.
For example - Henderson pressing John McGinn, stopping a counter and turning the ball away back into the Villa half won't be picked up in the data we see after the match.

It will get picked up later when Statsbomb release their data though. And when @AnfieldIndex do theirs.
Read 25 tweets
May 10
Okay lets do the math. They HAVE to lose a game that we win to be tied on points yes?

So their GD goes down in that match by at least one. Ours goes up by at least one. Yes?

So at best the GD is +1. And that is assuming both results are by a single goal.

So no, i disagree.
The main thing is to ALWAYS win the game. Throwing men forward when struggling to just get over the line here would have been abject stupidity. Which is why Klopp wasn't pushing people forward. Because he isn't stupid.
Read 5 tweets
May 10
Zero.

This is like these people that believe they could win a game/set against Venus Williams in Tennis.

People in the comments saying they would score 10. Motherfucker - Grealish has five and they spent more than £100m on his ass.

Nobody is spending more than 100p on you.
You will do nothing. You will run around for 2 minutes, then look winded while the game passes you by. And nobody is passing the ball to the guy who makes Ali Dia look like George Weah!
Read 4 tweets

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