A big deal for #TTF?
Today, Ukrainian Transit Operator OGTSU annouced force majeure on gas deliveries from Russia to Slovakia (Velké entry point) due to damages of facilities in occupied territory which cannot be accessed for repairs.
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tsoua.com/news/diyi-okup…
Today, Ukrainian Transit Operator OGTSU annouced force majeure on gas deliveries from Russia to Slovakia (Velké entry point) due to damages of facilities in occupied territory which cannot be accessed for repairs.
1/3
tsoua.com/news/diyi-okup…
Pro memoria: Russia delivers through 3 major pipeline systems & in the form of LNG by sea.
The pipeline via Ukraine has a capacity of up to 40bcm of which 1/3 of current gas transits via Ukraine is reported to be down now (32.6mcm/d).
2/3
The pipeline via Ukraine has a capacity of up to 40bcm of which 1/3 of current gas transits via Ukraine is reported to be down now (32.6mcm/d).
2/3
Our view:
- Yamal -88% YTD due to "unfriendly state" decision (GER Mallnow at zero too);
- Velké: 6.2bcm YTD, 130days x 32.6mcm/d = 4.2bcm -> 4.2/6.2 = 68% - not 33% - affected.
Ceteris paribus, EU must replace 68cm annualised to match 133bcm deliveries in 2021 by R (ex LNG)
- Yamal -88% YTD due to "unfriendly state" decision (GER Mallnow at zero too);
- Velké: 6.2bcm YTD, 130days x 32.6mcm/d = 4.2bcm -> 4.2/6.2 = 68% - not 33% - affected.
Ceteris paribus, EU must replace 68cm annualised to match 133bcm deliveries in 2021 by R (ex LNG)
Gazprom reaction
https://twitter.com/tmarzecmanser/status/1524069692163383305
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