Why #AMC#GME MOASS is more likely now: 1- the retail strong base. 2- major shorts use leverage. 3- bear market seduces shorts. 4- retail have not sold per OBV, #LogTheFloat & AA. Wouldn’t matter even if they did b/c: 5- retail owns at least 4 times the float; Documented for DOJ
6- Fed may limit the shorts via SEC to prevent an arbitrary recession. 7- institutions needing to make money & $GME $AMC are the best vehicles b/c of FOMO support & historical precedent. 8- negative beta = fast recovery 9- small & mid caps move higher faster in a recovery phase
10- major indices are down more than 20% which means by historical standards we are in margin call zone. 11- everything (stock, crypto, spy, my wife sex appetite) have been tied together which means breakaways occur soon. 12- imbalances cause stress for high risk equities.
There are more reasons to believe MOASS will happen in 2022 than anytime before. I may be wrong but I put my money where my mouth is. NFA
Notable contribution of followers:
GME apes DRSing,. GME stock split dividend , potential banning of Chinese stocks/bonds as collateral.
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A few assumptions in my "new solution" DD for #AMC & #GME Please comment if these assumptions are wrong or need adjustment: 1- Most brokerages don't fulfill orders immediately. They keep the money / may benefit from a decline in two days or longer aka T2+. No enforcement
2- Naked shorting is legal. Synthetic shares can be created to maintain an "orderly" market. The system has no enforcement mechanism and squeeze plays that last a few days encourage such practice. MMs & shorts benefit. Type 1 synthetic shares.
3- Big money buys huge puts, MMs create synthetic shares & sell them while they dont have any shares & / no shares available (Type 2 synthetic shrs) MMs purchase it cheaper later MM benefit more from deflation. Big money shorts as much as they want. burden on MMs => option fukry
(1/5) A few important notes on #AMC 1- The bull trend is being tested but not broken. A few more days on this trend and we cross a major resistance 2- Even if price drops bellow it nothing changes. The main strategy of buy and hold still applies. It only delays MOASS a little
(2/5) 3- The late day price action was an option game to collect premiums & had nothing to do with shorts & short interest but MMs 4- Volume is dry and slight buying pressure moves the price up because ape dont sell 5- Day traders have been kept out and that is a very good thing
(3/5) 6- AMC shares are with diamond hands now. literary no one wants to sell after waiting for months. 7- Take the shares of diamond hands out of the float & the "official" short interest % of float will be above 200%. Unofficial % is much higher
As a data analyst #AMC ape it was my duty to do my part: The true value of current shares including synthetic shares falls within this range: ~1.5B to ~5.5B with 99% confidence (1% chance the true number falls outside this range). See thread below for data and method. (1/13)
I extrapolated the number of #AMC synthetic shares using advanced statistical software based on the recent SAY shareholder vote and 3 indicators: Sample size, variability in population, & confidence level. (2/13)
Assumptions: a) 63,000 retail investors voted (not randomized so it might be biased & we should control for that- e.g. people with more shares had more tendency to vote).
b) 68,000,000 shares voted for Timothy B (first question)
c) 4,100,000 retail investors exist (3/13)