Thread by @salihenergy

Crude oil mkt: Below are some of the main catalysts we are watching

Anything to add? Let me know

There is still a lot of uncertainty, but risks may still be skewed to the upside #OOTT

Thread 1/9

2/9 Lockdowns in China is arguably the biggest headwind for oil prices right now - but these won't last forever (right?)

Rising interest rates and weaker macro backdrop also a headwind

But a shortage of oil could keep prices elevated #OOTT

3/9 An EU oil embargo on Russia appears to be around the corner. Some are arguing that these may disappoint - so that's bearish? The way I see it is there is likely to be more disruption to Russian oil flows, not less. This is already a tight market #OOTT

4/9 China aside, how is oil demand in other parts of the world?

Well, it seems to be ripping in India (third largest oil consumer in the world) #OOTT

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1524447884439076868

5/9 What happens when China is back + summer driving season + more jet fuel + less OPEC spare capacity + less strategic reserves. What am I missing here? #OOTT #OPEC

6/9 Demand destruction is what we need to rebalance the market

There are now some signs of it in some parts of the world (e.g. Nigeria), but subsidies are fighting it

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1524341546606338049

7/9 Meanwhile, SPR falls by record to lowest since May 2001 (EIA) #OOTT

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1524411494926069761

8/9 There is still another very effective way we could stop further spikes in oil... need him to get on board #OOTT

9/9 Anyway, given heightened volatility, I wouldn't be surprised if Brent tumbles after all the stuff I wrote above. Oh well..