Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OPEC
Most recents (24)
On my podcast, I read my @Medium column, "Ideas Lying Around," describing a #TheoryOfChange for unrigging markets, addressing the climate emergency, building worker power and saving news publishers from #BigTech:
doctorow.medium.com/ideas-lying-ar…
1/
doctorow.medium.com/ideas-lying-ar…
1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/06/12/onl…
2/
pluralistic.net/2023/06/12/onl…
2/
What is this amazing theory of change, that can do so much to right the world's wrongs? Fittingly, it's the same theory of change that got us into this mess. It's #MiltonFriedman's theory of change.
3/
3/
OPEC PLUS Oil Update: June 2023
#OPEC have announced another cut in oil production, to try and resurrect the oil price. A reduction in oil price hits the income for Russia, and it can be devastating for russian revenue.
The last time the oil price collapsed back in 1998 -… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#OPEC have announced another cut in oil production, to try and resurrect the oil price. A reduction in oil price hits the income for Russia, and it can be devastating for russian revenue.
The last time the oil price collapsed back in 1998 -… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Russian oil price (quoted as Urals) - is falling fast and is now at or below break even for production cost.
1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil
/2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crude’s supposed ‘weakness’ since last June’s highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make
/3 the case that Demand has somehow collapsed. This is nonsense & ignores the extraordinary SPR maneuvers that were employed in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Simply put, if ~600k b/d are dumped from the SPR, oil prices should drop, & they did. Extra SUPPLY. 222mm bbbls. Historic
1/ Quello che (convenientemente) tanti analisti-atlantisti non osano dire è che la nomina di #DiMaio è nomina U$A. Spinta, forse sì, da Draghi (anche se Di Maio gravita in "zona U$A" da luglio 2018) ma voluta da oltre-oceano.
Perché gli U$A hanno voluto Di Maio? (segue)
Perché gli U$A hanno voluto Di Maio? (segue)
2/ Gli U$A hanno voluto #DiMaio in quel ruolo chiave perché gli servirà un "totalmente devoto" (come lo sono Von der Leyen e altri pupazzi UE) quando i tagli alla produzione di greggio da parte di Opec+ (1mln/barili-die) e Russia (-5% su prod. totale) saranno effettivi
(segue)
(segue)
3/ A brevissimo inizieranno a sentirsi gli effetti di questi tagli (#Opec e taglio russo alla produzione di greggio) e tutte le economie occidentali saranno messe a durissima prova.
Le colonie (U$A) europee dovranno resistere per "tenere a galla" la madrepatria 🤮 U$A.
(segue)
Le colonie (U$A) europee dovranno resistere per "tenere a galla" la madrepatria 🤮 U$A.
(segue)
地球正義聯盟~資料館
#OPEC+ #推高全球油價
#石油輸出國組織 宣佈
令人震驚的「#每日減產」
115萬桶後下一步是什麼？
油價嘗試每桶US$100…
🔹上星期有什麼發生了？
🔸能否看出什麼端倪來？
1）#沙特🇸🇦同意以「#對話夥伴」身份加入「#上海合作組織」
2）#中國🇨🇳和 #巴西🇧🇷達成協議，#放棄美元 進行貿易
#OPEC+ #推高全球油價
#石油輸出國組織 宣佈
令人震驚的「#每日減產」
115萬桶後下一步是什麼？
油價嘗試每桶US$100…
🔹上星期有什麼發生了？
🔸能否看出什麼端倪來？
1）#沙特🇸🇦同意以「#對話夥伴」身份加入「#上海合作組織」
2）#中國🇨🇳和 #巴西🇧🇷達成協議，#放棄美元 進行貿易
OPEC+ ülkeleri [Irak, Kuveyt, Umman, Cezayir, Suudi Arabistan, BAE , Rusya] petrol üretimini günlük 1.15 milyon varil azalttıklarını duyurdu. Bu karar enerji tedariği konusunda sıkıntılı günler yaşayan AB'yi ve onu güdümleyen ABD'yi bir hayli zorlayacaktır.
Buna karşın yaptırımlar nedeniyle "indirimli" satışlar yapan Rusya'dan petrol piyasanın altında fiyatlarla alım yapan Hindistan ve Çin'in bu karardan büyük oranda etkilenmeyeceği söylenebilir. Hatırlarsanız ABD ve AB, Rusya yaptırımı sonrası Körfez'e petrol çıkartması yapmışlardı
Bu ziyaretlerde Suudi Arabistan ve BAE gibi ülkelerden petrol üretimlerini artırmaları istenmişti. Şimdi üretimde yeniden azaltmaya gidilmesi ve bu kararın bence anlamlı bir döneme denk gelmesi hayli yoruma açık.
Summary of the voluntary cuts:
RUS: 500,000
SAUDI ARABIA: 500,000
IRQ: 211,000
UAE: 144,000
KWT: 128,000
KZT: 78,000
Oman: 40,000
Algeria: 48,000 #OOTT #OPEC twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
RUS: 500,000
SAUDI ARABIA: 500,000
IRQ: 211,000
UAE: 144,000
KWT: 128,000
KZT: 78,000
Oman: 40,000
Algeria: 48,000 #OOTT #OPEC twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Wait for more countries to announce tonight… #OOTT
The thing is,
Elon Musk is being financed to destroy this platform.
They don't have to answer to Shareholders. They can destroy the brand if they want to.
Media Execs will sink all the money they want into this; because they're losing customers to Twitter users.
Elon Musk is being financed to destroy this platform.
They don't have to answer to Shareholders. They can destroy the brand if they want to.
Media Execs will sink all the money they want into this; because they're losing customers to Twitter users.
There are Autocrats around the world who would pay hundreds of millions in taxpayer money to spike a global communications platform that's bringing democracy to the far reaches of the planet.
This platform is all about engagement.
Corporate Media offers the opposite. #BigData
This platform is all about engagement.
Corporate Media offers the opposite. #BigData
I've been kicked off this platform more times than I can count.
I probably deserved it once, I'll give them one. But, seriously...
No liberal has ever censored a view. Ever. We judge folks for their views, and conservatives take THAT as a personal attack.
Human nature.
I probably deserved it once, I'll give them one. But, seriously...
No liberal has ever censored a view. Ever. We judge folks for their views, and conservatives take THAT as a personal attack.
Human nature.
The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d)
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d)
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously.
आज आपण अश्या कंपनीबद्दल जाणुन घेणार आहोत जी बर्याच जणांना माहिती नसेल पण नफ्याच्या बाबतीत ती कंपनी जगातील 'दादा' कंपनी आहे. खासकरून ऑईल मधील!!
या कंपनीचे नाव 'सौदी अरामको'(Saudi Aramco) असुन या कंपनीचा 2022 मधील नफा हा तब्बल १६१ बिलियन डॉलर्स एव्हढा आहे😱
#threadकर #वसुसेन
या कंपनीचे नाव 'सौदी अरामको'(Saudi Aramco) असुन या कंपनीचा 2022 मधील नफा हा तब्बल १६१ बिलियन डॉलर्स एव्हढा आहे😱
#threadकर #वसुसेन
त्यात नेमकं 'अरामको' च्या पथ्यावर रशिया-युक्रेन युद्ध चांगलच पडलय.तेलाच्या भरमसाठ वाढलेल्या किंमती आणि अरामको ची तेल उपसायची क्षमता या सगळ्यामुळे ही कंपनी म्हणजे पैसे छापायचा कारखानाच झालाय. दिवसाला साधारण १.२ करोड बॅरल उपसायची ताकत ही कंपनी ठेवते.🔥
जाळनं धुर्र संगटच!!😅😄
जाळनं धुर्र संगटच!!😅😄
म्हणजे विचार करा की अरामकोचा नफा मागील वर्षीपेक्षा तब्बल ४६% नी वाढला आहे!
आणखी सोप्या भाषेत म्हणल तर या कंपनीचा नफा एका बाजुला आणि अमेझाॅन, गुगल, मायक्रोसॉफ्ट आणि टेस्ला यांचा एकत्रित नफा एका बाजुला😄
आता तुम्हाला समजले असेल की अरामको ला मी सुरूवातीला 'दादा' कंपनी का म्हणलो ते!
आणखी सोप्या भाषेत म्हणल तर या कंपनीचा नफा एका बाजुला आणि अमेझाॅन, गुगल, मायक्रोसॉफ्ट आणि टेस्ला यांचा एकत्रित नफा एका बाजुला😄
आता तुम्हाला समजले असेल की अरामको ला मी सुरूवातीला 'दादा' कंपनी का म्हणलो ते!
Riyad 🇸🇦 -⚡️Ministro dell'Energia saudita, principe Abdulaziz bin Salman:
- Vieteremo le nostre esportazioni di petrolio verso qualsiasi paese che imponga un prezzo massimo sulle nostre forniture, e altri produttori potrebbero seguirci
1/6
- Vieteremo le nostre esportazioni di petrolio verso qualsiasi paese che imponga un prezzo massimo sulle nostre forniture, e altri produttori potrebbero seguirci
1/6
2/ Il Regno ha il diritto di preservare i suoi interessi economici e attuare tutto ciò che ritiene opportuno per stabilizzare la sua economia.
Ridurre la produzione in nome di prezzi equi è un diritto intrinseco imposto dagli interessi nazionali.
Ridurre la produzione in nome di prezzi equi è un diritto intrinseco imposto dagli interessi nazionali.
3/ - La legge "NOPEC" non tiene conto dell'importanza della riserva di capacità produttiva e delle sue ripercussioni sull'economia globale.
- Ho ripetutamente avvertito che la crescita della domanda globale supererà l'attuale livello di capacità produttiva di riserva.
- Ho ripetutamente avvertito che la crescita della domanda globale supererà l'attuale livello di capacità produttiva di riserva.
Must Read 🟢
Death of a Myth
We are experiencing the death throes of the #US unipolar hegemony over large parts of world. theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
Death of a Myth
We are experiencing the death throes of the #US unipolar hegemony over large parts of world. theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
"Until citizens begin to realize the magnitude of their govt’s policy deceptions, it will become increasingly difficult to understand the #US changing global position & adjust to the effects of the growing negative perception of our country held by many people around the world."
Since World War II, & particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US was the dominant & unrivaled world power. Instead of being a peacekeeper & honest “world's policeman,” the US has increasingly been a destabilizing bully.
theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
“In five EU countries, every reactor — 18 in total — was built by #Russia. In addition, two more are scheduled to start operating soon in #Slovakia, and two are under construction in #Hungary, cementing partnerships with #Rosatom far into the future.”🤔 #sanctions #Ukraine
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Skipped Abu Dhabi Summit in January to Snub Emiratis: WSJ Sources
#OOTT #OPEC
#OOTT #OPEC
Now, said Emirati officials say, the U.A.E. is having an internal debate about leaving OPEC, a decision that would shake the cartel and undermine its power in global oil markets.
#OOTT #OPEC #Saudi #UAE
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
#OOTT #OPEC #Saudi #UAE
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#Russia #Decoupled
❝ Since the United States has a budget deficit, and no one is eager to buy their debt notes, the Americans have to sacrifice even their allies in order to delay their end a little longer. ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#Russia #Decoupled
❝ Since the United States has a budget deficit, and no one is eager to buy their debt notes, the Americans have to sacrifice even their allies in order to delay their end a little longer. ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#OPEC #SaudiArabia
❝ Maybe the Arabs also know something if they refuse Biden oil, plan to switch to the yuan, ask to join BRICS and look closely at [Russian] weapons? ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#OPEC #SaudiArabia
❝ Maybe the Arabs also know something if they refuse Biden oil, plan to switch to the yuan, ask to join BRICS and look closely at [Russian] weapons? ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#WARSAW #Georgia
❝ Smart people understand everything and try to jump out in advance. Would Erdogan or Lukashenko behave like this if they didn’t know something? ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#WARSAW #Georgia
❝ Smart people understand everything and try to jump out in advance. Would Erdogan or Lukashenko behave like this if they didn’t know something? ❞
#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
Abbiamo tutti i dati della #Russia nel '22 e possiamo paragonarli con quello che sarebbe dovuto essere l'impatto delle #sanzioni secondo #VonderLeyen
🔴Nessuna previsione #EU si è rivelata neppure vagamente esatta🔴 (Come vi diciamo da marzo)
Pil
Stime UE = -11%
Realtà = -2%
🔴Nessuna previsione #EU si è rivelata neppure vagamente esatta🔴 (Come vi diciamo da marzo)
Pil
Stime UE = -11%
Realtà = -2%
Inflazione
Stime UE = +22%
Realtà = +13.7%
Quasi la metà, con trend al ribasso, solo 11% a gennaio, ~come da noi
Stime UE = +22%
Realtà = +13.7%
Quasi la metà, con trend al ribasso, solo 11% a gennaio, ~come da noi
Calo Importazioni (proxy per la difficoltà a rifornirsi)
Stime UE = -35%
Realtà = -9%
Un lieve calo, come già accaduto in passato, nel range normale delle fluttuazioni. Nessun "crollo"
Stime UE = -35%
Realtà = -9%
Un lieve calo, come già accaduto in passato, nel range normale delle fluttuazioni. Nessun "crollo"
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude #permian #eagleford #midland #bakken
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut. Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. #oil #opec
The total cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to market by OPEC+ is almost 1.1B bbls since we started sharing these metrics in January 2021.
13/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas.
For oil markets, it’s fair to say that 2022 has been one for the history books. Price/volume swings and government interventions at a scale and frequency we've never seen before.
Mega year-end thread of the 22 key oil numbers of 2022. #OOTT #oil #OPEC
Mega year-end thread of the 22 key oil numbers of 2022. #OOTT #oil #OPEC
This list could have been much longer (!) and some events have multiple key numbers that would have been worth highlighting, but wanted to keep a good mix across prices and paper markets, fundamentals (S/D), geopolitics, refining and trade flows.
So here goes...
So here goes...
#1 -- $64/bbl
The difference between ICE Brent’s intra-day high and low in 2022 as supply fears and uncertainty drove massive swings. Adrenaline.
The difference between ICE Brent’s intra-day high and low in 2022 as supply fears and uncertainty drove massive swings. Adrenaline.
Here's the #inflation story you're expected to believe (advance warning: this story is entirely false): America gave the poors too much money during the lockdown and now the #economy is awash in #FreeMoney, which made those poors so rich that now they're refusing to work. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2022/12/14/med… 2/
pluralistic.net/2022/12/14/med… 2/
That means the economy isn't making anything anymore. With all that extra money and all those missing workers, prices are skyrocketing.
To hear ghouls like @LHSummers tell it, there is only one answer to this. 3/
To hear ghouls like @LHSummers tell it, there is only one answer to this. 3/
.
Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
.
Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
.
ON the - SIDE
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Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management
2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management
2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!
4-9 Has the US federal government managed the oil market? Yes, and for a long time via different means. For example, the US federal government adopted a communist-style price control that controlled all energy prices throughout the 1970s.
cato.org/commentary/rem…
cato.org/commentary/rem…
