Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OPEC

Most recents (24)

OPEC oil output again misses target in June as outages weigh -@Reuters survey

* OPEC output falls 100,000 bpd from May

* Libya, Nigeria post biggest declines

* Compliance with OPEC+ cut pledges rises to 253%

#oil #opec #energy #crisis @BisonInterests…
OPEC missing their recent quota increase by half a million barrels per day? You don't say ...
Read 5 tweets
G7 is the latest to try to push OPEC+ to produce more #oil

Too bad that "OPEC+ Spare Capacity is Insufficient Amid Global Energy Crisis" (October, 2021)…
"G7 is mindful of shrinking spare production capacity and **crucially** wants KSA to **keep some powder dry**"

They obviously missed the memo:
The Myth of OPEC+ Spare Capacity
September 18, 2021 - @BisonInterests…
Read 5 tweets
#energy is life; and is the foundation upon which complex industrial civilization is built. Our #EnergyCrisis has begun; and we face the slide into #Collapse as that foundation crumbles.
#OPEC reveals production declines for May 2022.…
The #Diesel crisis won't be fixed by new refining capacity.…
Read 11 tweets
1-5 Now it is official: President Biden to visit #SaudiArabia on July 15 and 16, during his Middle East tour.
After meeting with the Saudi leadership, he will meet with the leaders of what some experts call “the Arab NATO”: GCC leaders, Egypt, Jordan, (& Iraq). #OOTT #COM #EFT
2-5 Oil is not among top issues given the importance of security issues in the region. My guess is that Saudis are more interested in highlighting their climate change plans & efforts while showing that they actually have been increasing oil production & will continue to do so
3-5 While mega commercial deals are expected, nuclear deals will attract media attention. Saudi Arabia, in its carbon reduction efforts, needs nuclear energy. It remains to be seen if Saudis will continue to invest in the US refining sector
Read 5 tweets
UAE energy minister: Situation is not encouraging when it comes to quantities of crude OPEC+ can bring. We have seen the conformity of the OPEC+ group and the conformity is more than 200%. Risk for oil market is when china demand recovers.
UAE energy minister: Talking with our friends in Germany and others if they are interested in our natural gas. #ONGT
UAE energy minister says crude prices 'nowhere' near peak yet. #OOTT
Read 3 tweets
OPEC Sec Gen: “OPEC is running out of capacity... with the exception of 2-3 members all are maxed out ... the world needs to come to terms with this brutal fact.” From RBC Conference.

Sounds a lot like this from @BisonInterests, Oct 2021:…
And sounds like "The Myth of OPEC+ Spare Capacity" is seeing further validation…
Although we didn't really need #opec to tell us this. Just look at this #oil production miss chart from last month!
Read 8 tweets
Thread: 1 June 2022: Day 98 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Kalush Orchestra, the rap-folk band that won Eurovision for #Ukraine, has sold the Eurovision trophy at auction for $900,000 in order to buy drones (the PD-2 unmanned aerial system) for the country's war effort against the #Russian invaders.…
Vladimir Shamanov on the "superiority" of #Russia's army; intentions with Poland, Baltics, Romania; taking 5 to 10 years to fully demilitarized and denazify #Ukraine, leveling the country if need be and trying its officials and journalists at a "Nuremberg"
Read 66 tweets
Crude oil mkt: Below are some of the main catalysts we are watching

Anything to add? Let me know

There is still a lot of uncertainty, but risks may still be skewed to the upside #OOTT

Thread 1/9
2/9 Lockdowns in China is arguably the biggest headwind for oil prices right now - but these won't last forever (right?)

Rising interest rates and weaker macro backdrop also a headwind

But a shortage of oil could keep prices elevated #OOTT
3/9 An EU oil embargo on Russia appears to be around the corner. Some are arguing that these may disappoint - so that's bearish? The way I see it is there is likely to be more disruption to Russian oil flows, not less. This is already a tight market #OOTT
Read 9 tweets
Thread of news items related to #NOPEC
1- Trump calls on Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production…
2- Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources…
3- OPEC and allies’ oil production cut is Trump’s ‘biggest and most complex’ deal ever: Dan Yergin…
Read 6 tweets
🇸🇦🇦🇪🛢️⚡ #Saudi and #UAE ministers have warned that spare capacity is shrinking across all energy sectors as crude oil, diesel and natural gas prices hit record highs.

“I have never seen such things,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who has been attending #OPEC meetings since the 1980s, said Tuesday at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the recent price surge.

"The world must wake up from the existing reality. The world is running out of energy capacities at all levels."

The Prince's #UAE colleague, Suheil al-Mazroui, said at the same meeting that without increased investment around the world, ...

Read 4 tweets
Thread : 🧵
With #OPEC Plus clinging to #oil pumping operations at nearly the same level, which leads to a continuous rise in fuel prices globally, in my opinion, the key to this crisis is in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
#KSA #USA #Russia #Ukraine #EU #NATO #Iran Image
As it is known, #Riyadh is the second largest oil exporter in the world with about 10 mbd and the second largest reserves. #SaudiArabia also leads the #OPEC, which includes a number of oil exporters, making it an important influence on global oil prices.
It is important to stress that the current rise started since the 4th quarter of last year, months before Russian invasion in #Ukraine, with assurances from #US, confirming its attempt to communicate with the Saudi side to raise the level of production, hitting a dead end.
Read 8 tweets
🚨 OPEC out of spare capacity? Price up, exports down.
We forecast OPEC+ spare capacity running low months ago at @BisonInterests ...…
OPEC plans to remove the IEA as secondary source - delegates #OOTT #opec @IEA h/t @Amena__Bakr

Step in the right direction? Check your sources. Tag your sponsor.
Read 5 tweets

Follow our liveblog for the latest updates on the three summits taking place in Brussels today. ⤵️…
@NATO leaders are meeting from 10:00 CET this morning to agree on additional support for #Ukraine 🇺🇦, which will also include protective equipment against a potential use of chemical and nuclear weapons in the country, writes @alex_owski.
#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has created “the most serious security crisis in a generation,” @jensstoltenberg tells reporters upon arrival, adding that “there is a new sense of urgency.”

By @alex_owski
Read 63 tweets
#EIA #oil data: #crude -1.9 mln bbls; at 411.6 mln; -13% v 5-yr avg for period
#gasoline -1.4 mln bbls; +1% v 5-yr avg
#distillate -5.2 mln bbls; -18% v 5-yr avg
#propane -1.6 bbls; -21% v 5-yr avg
Total commercial stocks -8.1 mln bbls
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #energy
#EIA #oil #data: U.S. #crude oil #refinery inputs averaged 15.4 mln bpd week to March 4, 2022, -21,000 bpd vs previous week; #refineries operated at 89.3% capacity; #gasoline output rose to 9.6 mln bpd, #distillate output fell to 4.6 mln bpd.
#OOTT #diesel #energy #refining
#EIA: #oil data: U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 mln bpd last week, +0.6 million bpd vs previous week; last 4 weeks #crude oil imports averaged 6.2 mln bpd, +10.1% vs year-ago period
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #inventory #energy #data #exports #crudeoil #tankers #imports
Read 4 tweets
1/10 🧵
An obvious patriotic deed for U.S. citizens wanting to protect the nation's economy, support #Ukraine, weaken Putin, is to use even ONE gal/week less #gasoline. It was an obvious way to help curb inflation from start of reopening #oil demand surge, before any war.
But #oil/fossil industry's crisis response has been to taunt U.S./EU citizens about a fossil dependence imposed on them via decades of organized political and economic power deployed to stifle #renewables and enrich oil oligarchs & tyrants, both domestic and foreign.
U.S. #oil production was hit by COVID, made worse by GOP/Trump's negligent (was it purposeful?) and idiotic pandemic policies, not Biden or Greta or Democratic policy. Even as COVID loomed clueless Saudi Arabia & allies were prepping a price war w/Russia & U.S. shale.
Read 10 tweets
1.Add to that Saudi-Arabia's decision to stand by the 2020 oil pact with #Russia (ie not pump more #Oil into the market)
#Putin seems to have had a clear picture when he made the decision that in the short-term he has #OPEC backing and that the West was still dependent on his gas
2. The pact was achieved after the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia in early 2020. The Saudis were willing to reach a compromise with Russia after #Trump intervened and threatened to halt military aid to #Riyadh if it doesn't come to terms with Moscow.
3. Presumably Trump was making that effort on behalf of American #LNG exporters that were under threat of going out of business due to the low price environment.
Russia has been courting Saudia and the Emirates since the 1970s. Previously the Soviet Union supported...
Read 5 tweets
Was bedeutet der #UkraineKonflikt für die #Weltwirtschaft ? Thesen in einem Thread:
1. Der Konflikt trifft auf eine fragile Weltwirtschaft.
2. Diese hat sich von #Corona dank massiver staatlicher Hilfen und #Liquiditätsflutung durch die maßgeblichen Notenbanken deutlich erholt.
3. Was aber angesichts der weiter vorhandenen Angebotsstörungen und der schon seit Jahren zu geringen Investitionen in die Erschließung neuer fossiler Energiequellen (auch aufgrund des Drucks in der Klimapolitik) zu Inflationsdruck geführt hat. 2/3
4. Dies hat in den #USA und #UK aber auch in der #Eurozone den Druck auf die #Notenbanken #EZB #FED erhöht, die geldpolitischen Zügel anzuziehen. 3/4
Read 10 tweets
FEB 14, 2022

The Global Oil Balance is Much Tighter Than is Believed


#oilprices #CrudeOil #energycrisis #opec #ESG #GreenEnergy #fintwit #eft #oott #energy #oilandgas #SaudiArabia #RussiaUkraine #RussiaCrisis #ElectricVehicles
Last week’s events will be remembered for many reasons but for us, the major market mover was the International Energy Agency’s admission that global oil demand is wickedly higher than what the agency was willing to admit previously…

Why did it take so long for the agency to reconcile its data series? It is a mystery. You might be thinking that this is some sort of academic debate but it is not.

In our previous columns, we have written about the topic of “missing oil”…

Read 17 tweets
"I believe IPTC can be a powerful catalyst in the transformation of commitment to action," says Nasir K. Al-Naimi, SVP Upstream of #Saudi @aramco at the International Petroleum Technology Conference #IPTC2022
"We know the world needs us now, perhaps more than ever, to ensure the #energy transition leaves no nation behind," says Nasir Al-Naimi of @aramco at the International Petroleum Technology Conference, held at Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Centre #IPTC2022
.@Aramco is among the lowest #oil producers in terms of #carbon intensity, Aramco's chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan says at the International Petroleum Technology Conference #IPTC2022
Read 26 tweets
Thread on #OPEC meeting #OOTT
1- This forthcoming OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday is going to be held under the biggest political crisis since OPEC+ has been initiated.
The optimal outcome is a short meeting where they stick to the plan unless Russia wants to increase production.
2- If it was not for the Russian-Ukrain issue, one would argue for an increase in the group's ceiling, which ultimately means higher production by those who can increase production. In a sense, it legitimizes these increases.
But that comes with a risk of angering some members
3- The increase can be justified by curbing a sharp rise in oil prices. Saudis can also justify adding the voluntary cuts that they made in the past. After all, the planned increases were eliminated or reduced in the past, now they can use the same logic, but in reverse. #OOTT
Read 8 tweets
Thread on the most important events in the oil market in 2021:
1- What constitutes an important event?
An event that is NOT common, different from the past, & sometimes different from the prevailing conventional wisdom that has ramifications on several fronts & for years to come
2- That immediately excludes many of the expected trends: increasing prices, production, demand, rigs, revenues, profits, stock prices, etc. It also excludes The Biden Administration's requests for OPEC to increase production and the use of the SPR.
3- The most important event in 2021 with a significant impact on oil market balances in 2021 & beyond is the change in #oil market structure & the role of OPEC+ leaders in global energy markets & climate negotiations. That changed the economics and the politics of the oil market.
Read 8 tweets
Bison thread on buying the oil and gas dip. Looking forward to thoughts, concerns, feedback and discussion!
Read 6 tweets
Thread: General comments & forecasts for the global oil market in 2022. Constructive comments are welcome. If comments don't fit your books, just ignore them.

1-13 The oil market will be tighter than forecasts, especially relative to OPEC’s forecast. No major inventory build.
2- The biggest surprise might come from increased demand for oil in the oil-producing countries themselves. That is a double-edged sword; BULLISH.

On the other side, if #COVID19 & its varients come back with vengeance: lockdowns, inventory build, etc.. OPEC+ is expected to react
3- Average oil prices for 2022 will be higher than that of 2021, but prices will be range-bound, even when China refills its SPR.

No $100 oil under normal circumstances. Possible under certain conditions. #Oil #OPEC #OOTT #China
Read 14 tweets
Thread on why I am bullish on oil in the long run:

1- In all outlooks, the largest decrease in global oil demand comes from the massively improved efficiency in ICE vehicles. That is massively exaggerated.

2- Do the numbers! The impact of #ElectricVehicles is exaggerated!
3- The outlooks ignore the global shift in consumer taste from small cars to crossovers, SUVs, and trucks.

4- All those who are bearish on oil are looking at a static picture. The world is dynamic. If oil prices collapse, oil will be too cheap to ignore by all groups.#oil #OPEC
5- The outlooks ignore the new consumers of energy as they did in the past with Bitcoin and data centers. That creates competition for electricity, and that leads to fuel switching and private generation.
#Bitcoin #Datacenters
Read 14 tweets

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