Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OPEC

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#OPEC En resumen:

1. Se reunió la OPEC+ en marzo para reducir la producción 10 millones de barriles diarios (mbd) por la destrucción de la demanda por el COVID-19

2. México solo aceptó una reducción de 100 mil barriles diarios y el acuerdo quedó en una reducción de 9.7 mbd
3. El recorte de 9.7 mbd sería solo dos meses (mayo y junio) y a partir de julio comenzaría a subir gradualmente la producción hasta el segundo cuarto de 2022.

4. Algunos países aumentaron la producción en abril, los inventarios se saturaron a precios bajos.
5. Cuando comienzan los recortes en mayo y la caída natural de producción principalmente de Estados Unidos y Canadá, no ha elevado los precios como se esperaba

6. Los inventarios siguen altos y la demanda no se ha recuperado, por lo que un aumento de producción no es deseable
Read 7 tweets
Thread on #OPEC and OPEC+ meetings today:
(Media: please feel free to quote)

1- What is the importance of this meeting? 1-

First, Deepening the production cuts from what was previously agreed upon for the month of July, which would accelerate the rebalancing of the markets
2- Second, the unprecedented focus on the commitment of all members & the establishment of a monthly monitoring system for the production of member states & the #oil market. This means that the possibility of a monthly renewal of the agreement exists if there is a need for it.
3- Third, establishing a new system used for the first time by OPEC: reduction of future production quota if countries violate their current quota. This system has been historically adopted by world commodity organizations such as the Tin, Bauxite a& Coffee organizations.
Read 11 tweets
A top (retired) bureaucrat reminded me that today marks the silver jubilee of @H_D_Devegowda being sworn in as PM (01 June 1996). I told him it is actually a year short, but, he said there is no harm in ushering it a year earlier. I asked why? 1/6
Troubled about developments in India’s neighbourhood and at the borders, he said, Gowda did so much to build goodwill in the neighbourhood during his short tenure, which has never been acknowledged by the lords in #Lutyens. 2/6
He was the most trusted PM in #Kashmir, held polls there after a decade. He had a fantastic thing going with #Pakistan. He was the first PM to focus on the North#East and stay there overnight; create a special cell in the PMO, and release a special multi-crore package. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
My take on the week that was, and what’s next. #OOTT #EFT #shale #OilPrice #crudeoil #OPEC

When oil became waste: a week of turmoil for crude, and more pain to come
So a bit more on this. A lot right now rests on what happens next, both in terms of various economic regions trying to recover a bit and find ways to do a bit more business - and whether that's possible. #OOTT #OPEC
After all it's not often you see a nation like Azerbaijan tell a BP-led consortium that yes, you have to stop producing. Usually the big oil companies are exempt from this sort of thing. #OOTT #OPEC

Not anymore. @dmitryZ_reuters
Read 38 tweets
#BeyondHeadlines: There are not-so-obvious global reasons why the #OilMarketCrash is NOT good for #India.

Heavy #QE/ currency pressure + Intense #geopolitical tension

= #India, importer & friend to all oil producers, in the crosshairs.

Thread on these impacts of #OilPrice 👇 Image
US #oilprice crashed negative for the 1st time in history. West Texas Intermediate (a US crude) traded as low as -$40.32 a barrel. So far the bulk of the losses are in US crude, -200 to -1000%! Global (Brent) crude has not gone down as much because global storage still exists.
#COVID19 #lockdown has sharply cut all travel & thus demand for oil. Excess supply of oil resulted in a shortage of #storage space, esp in North America. As they & slowly the rest of the world run out of storage, the demand for future oil contracts (futures) goes down sharply
Read 11 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets
Oil #Brent #crudeoil WTI vs Brent. Image
1. Most popular grades of oil quality are West Texas Intermediary (WTI) & Brent North Sea Crude (Brent) (sourced from US from Permian basin)
It’s a benchmark for North America
2. Brent is a blend from of 15 oil fields n other in the North Sea. It's 2/3rds of world production. Benchmark for Africa, Europe + Middle East
Read 21 tweets
Actualizo #Gasolinas
La tendencia del precio del Gasoline RBOB sigue en el margen de ~70uscents/Gal.
No han habido cambios sustantivos, a pesar de ver ahorita al #WTI metido en -40 USD/Ba.
Sin embargo, habrá que considerar que los factores más importantes en la crisis petrolera actual son:
1. Insuficiencia de los recortes acordados en la #OPEC
2. De forma indirecta, @GobiernoMX y @rocionahle causaron los descuentos brutales en el Arab Light hacia América.
3. Básicamente esto trajo como consecuencia también una crisis de almacenamiento, es decir, parte de la solución a esta crisis no solo estriba en los recortes de producción, sino en la capacidad de almacenamiento que tengan los países productores.…
Read 7 tweets
Absurdes aus der Welt des Kapitalismus: der #Ölpreis schmiert ab. In #Texas (#USA) $2/barrel, in #NewYork $5.48/barrel (WTI) bzw. $26.44 (Brent).
Ursache: der Nachfrageeinbruch durch #Coronavirus #covid19 und Preiskrieg #Russland/#SaudiArabien. /MS…
Nachdem langsam aber sicher auch die Speicherkapazitäten knapp werden, dürften die ersten Inhaber von Öl-Futures sogar in negative Preise akzeptieren - also bezahlen, damit jemand ihnen das Öl abnimmt. Der #Umweltschutz lässt grüßen... /MS
... wtf. Keine Minute später kracht der #Ölpreis auf unter $1/barrel ein (WTI). Der Preis lag mal bei jenseits $140/barrel vor der Wirtschaftskrise 2008ff... /MS
Read 13 tweets
#WTI #CrudeOil futures for May,expiring tomorrow,tanked 57%,to $7.98 per barrel

June contract,expiring on 19thMay, traded@ $26.62/barrel

July futures,traded@ $28/barrel

And all this,despite #OPEC's decision to cut supply by 9.7 million barrels a day,wef 1st May2020

Normally,spread between #Spot &one month forward contract,is 40-50 cents

This time,spread is $10-12,implying weakness in #crudeoil,will continue

Global demand for #Oil in April 2020,was lower by 29 million barrels per day,Vs April 2019

#COVIDー19&global #lockdown, playing out
Indian #Crude basket is a derived basket of #crudeoil comprising #sourcrude(Dubai&Oman)&sweet crude(Brent)

Indian basket,aligned to #Brent crude,has fallen too,but not as much as #WTI crude

April 2020 #Brent@$20.92 per barrel March $32.01
Feb $55.70
Jan 2020@ $63.83

Read 16 tweets
Se ha hablado mucho de una revisión del #PactoFiscalFederal y en términos generales, es válida la propuesta y completamente legal si entidades del país deciden salirse del marco.
Para ello, abro breve #Hilo
En los años 1970s, José López Portillo, promueve una iniciativa para la creación de un #PactoFiscal para centralizar las finanzas públicas y según, emparejar las participaciones fiscales estatales en el marco de los altos ingresos petroleros derivados de #Cantarel
Para ello, se creó la Ley de Coordinación Fiscal.
La cuál, pueden ver aquí:…
Read 11 tweets
Básicamente así está el timeline de la reunión OPEC
1) El REQUISITO para dicha reunión es que todos tenían a cortar producción.
2) En días pasados se discutió la base y cantidades de dicho recorte.
3) A la mera hora, invitan a México.
4) La primera parte de la reunión fue muy básica, posicionamientos y México diciendo que "la mayoría de los países en OPEC + estan trabajando para tener un consenso y estabilizar el precio del petróleo"
Ojo aquí.
Cabe destacar, que dejaron fuera del acuerdo a Iran, Libya y Venezuela. Y Los únicos países que faltaban por acordaron eran: Kazajstán, Brunei y México.
Decían que Rusia y Arabia Saudita ya sabían puesto de acuerdo antes.
Read 14 tweets
"Busy time, busy time," begins @POTUS.
"We're working very hard to get additional things to New York as quickly as possible," says @POTUS, noting he spoke with @NYGovCuomo.
"We're dealing with big parts of the world" to help them "through this terrible situation," says @POTUS.
Read 74 tweets
#RyanDawson: ".. Why is #Turkey so beholden to #Israel? I like you to see this. I has over half-a-million views.
..I explained this at the very beginning of the #SyrianWar

..Why is there conflict in #Syria, and why is there really a target on #Iran? If you stop thinking about>
it in terms of #US-#interest, the #puzzle is very easy. The US acts for only one state's interest, and that's #Israel.

#AIPAC purchased #Congress with a foreign government's financial backing.

Since we learn nothing in #school,
> and the #press is a joke [#Dawson is referring to the #USA, mind you. LG,I], I must go over some background-information about:#pipelines.

Pipelines are not just for transporting oil and gas, they are for political #leverage as well. Each country a #pipeline passes through
Read 8 tweets
OPEC was formed in the 1970s and the cartel could control prices - because the global economy runs on oil, and bulk of the reserves were in the Middle East.

They figured out, Oil Demand is inelastic. People have to buy no matter what price. It’s the most dense form of energy.
Price Elasticity if Demand in the short run was 8x.

1% cut in Oil production would lead to 8% rise in price.

But if prices are too high, then people start saving energy and demand falls.
Read 37 tweets
A must read today on #oil from @IEA

Due #COVID they present 3 scenarios 2020 oil demand
Base case (demand picks up later in year): -90 kb/d
Low case (global measures fail to contain virus): -730 kb/d
High case (quickly contained): +480 kb/d

2/ global oil demand in 2020 falls to a trickle @IEA
3/ US production set to plateau even with their base case of $60 Brent. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority.

This is way above the current levels of $30-$35 #oil with #OPEC failing to reach an agreement #OOTT
Read 5 tweets
1/x In an effort to understand the #OilPriceWar I dug a bit. Here is what I found & another resource thread for any students that are not in school & would like to learn a bit on #markets. #ResourceThread

A. It. began with the #Corvid19 = ⬇️ demand.…
2/x The #Corvid19 -> ⬇️ Dem. to level this ⬇️prod.

B. V. much like the rhyme there was an old woman who swallowed a fly, shell, and a host of other holiday spin offs, the⬇️ demand, would have resulted in a price crash. See #oilprice metrics.…
3/x #Oilprice is complex, here is a site that show some price charts that may be of interest. Here you can create your own dashboard.…
Read 15 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and the #Corona / #COVID19 #Virus. What is it doing to #Global #Energy #Demand & what does it mean for #OPEC?
On March 5th 2020, the Organisation of #Petroleum Exporting Countries #OPEC concluded its 178th Extraordinary meeting. Aside from Ecuador's withdrawal from OPEC, the #Oil #Cartel was hard pressed to fashion a response to the impact of #COVID19 on #Global oil #Demand...
It is no secret that the #global #oil #market is awash in oil. The glut in supply has seen, in the past, a collaboration of sorts between #OPEC & Non-OPEC (mainly #Russia) oil exporters to monitor supply & maintain output at "mutually profitable" levels...
Read 9 tweets
🚨BREAKING 🚨Saudi Arabia is launching the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war: plan for a big production hike, and offering huge discount for its crude | #OOTT #OPEC #SaudiArabia with @A_DiPaola17…
How large are the price cuts to the Saudi official selling prices? Huge, really, really huge. In Europe, Aramco has made the largest month-on-month cut for Arab Light in at least 20 years: a hefty $8 to -$10.25 a barrel | #OOTT
The shock-and-awe Saudi strategy could be an attempt to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia, in an effort to bring them back to the negotiating table, and then reverse the production surge and start cutting output if a deal is achieved | #OOTT
Read 3 tweets
What is #Russia doing in #Syria? Thread 👇

Right now the vast bulk of piped gas to Europe comes via pipeline from Russia. Transporting gas by pipelines is vastly cheaper than by ship (LNG).

This has been a source of major annoyance to the US Military Industrial Complex.
Why? Because Europe desperately needs gas in winter for heating. With the piped gas monopoly, Russia can in extremis shut gas supply. This makes Europe extremely reluctant to confront #Russia.

So what's the solution? Find another source of gas that can be piped to Europe.
#Qatar sits on the world's biggest gas field which it has monetised by LNG. But the US plan that starts to take shape in the early 2000s is to construct a pipeline from Qatar to Turkey (which has exidyunv pipelines connecting to Europe and already carrying Russian gas).
Read 10 tweets
Thread on the contradiction in the Russian position:

1- A large build in inventories in the first half means lower demand for imports in the second half. In other words, no recovery in prices in the second half because of high inventories. 2020 is done!
#Oil #OPEC
2- If they are retaliating because of Trump's sanctions on Nordstream, Rosneft Trading, and some Russian banks, they just gave Trump an unexpected lifeline: very low gasoline prices
3- If they think Brent prices will remain in the $40s and they can cover any budget deficit from reserves, they will be shocked when a price war brings prices to the mid $20s. Ignoring reaction to their action is irrational. They also lost many friends today.
Read 10 tweets
Thread on #Libya oil shut in: The agenda for Sunday's scheduled UN meeting with Libyan stakeholders in Cairo will now include oil terminals, which were not part of this week's 5+5 security meeting in Geneva. #OOTT #OPEC
I do not expect an agreement to materialize over the weekend, but there will be discussions of eastern Libyan stakeholders' demands that would need to be met to reopen the terminals.
Diplomatic pressure over the past 48 hours has raised expectations that a deal could happen soon, but there has been no apparent breakthrough so far.
Read 10 tweets
#Iran’s #oil Minister, Zangeneh: “the new discovery had added 22 billion barrels of crude oil to previous estimates of the field.”
- The newly-discovered oilfield in Khuzesan was named Namavaran, adding the field had an oil in place estimate of 53 billion barrels.#OOTT #OPEC
- The field was estimated to hold53 billion barrels of crude oil in place and there is a possibility of its southward continuation.

- exploration activities began in2016 and given that 31 b barrels were previously discovered,22 billion barrels were added to previous estimations.
- Assuming 10% recovery rate in the field, 2.2 billion barrels of crude oil have been added to the country’s crude oil production capacity.

-This is the second largest oilfield discovered in Iran following Asmari Oil Layer in Gachsaran with 54 billion barrels of oil in place.
Read 4 tweets
1/n 2 days ago as I ws returning home frm my gym I spotted a flag with blue red & white. FRANCE I thot! Hw did I miss 1 of d most powerful flags in d world--RUSSIA? #Putin is in UAE today!Welcome to post-American middle east! 😊👍 My thread on middle east as I understand it
This is Putin’s first visit to UAE in last 12yre, his last official visit happened in 2007. On 14th Oct, he ws in Saudi Arabia.Its the impeccable timing of his visit to GCC that surprises me. Russia thawing its relations with American allies is not a recent phenomenon. 2/n
3/n Russia is right now part of #OPEC as an observer. Since 2015 it hs along with other oil producing countries played a significant role in controlling the oil prices. Bt then its not only abt oil. Russia, Saudi arabia and UAE now hv "space-ties" too.
Read 13 tweets

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