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Milan Vojtek Profile picture
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May 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The total DeFi market cap also reached the last summer lows while decent DeFi projects suffered 90% devaluation or more which are typical bear market bottom numbers.

DeFi is a risky asset class, it can be destroyed once regulations comes in. Image
Oh and always do your math. I have seen serious problems lately regarding calculating %.

For example if AAVE total loss goes to -95% from -90% that's not -5% loss from now, but -50% from the current price.
#AAVE Image
#Sushiswap looks completely destroyed. Image
#COMP as well. Rip. Image

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More from @vojtek_milan

Milan Vojtek Profile picture
May 12
1)
 The most interesting topic for me currently is the relatively mild devaluation of altcoins, according(!) to the assumed market phase.
🧵
2)
I will explain everything in detail since my charts are looking messy sometimes, just like this one.

Orange chart below: TOTAL3 = TOTAL - ETH - BTC

- Observations -

BTC tends to form a long term support at a certain point of the market.
That's the horizontal red box. Image
3)
The moment, when the support formed (in hindsight) and #BTC break above has been marked with the vertical, dashed white line.

That's the moment when TOTAL3 formed the "1st floor".
Marked this in 17' & 21" as well.
The 1st floor became the bear market bottom later on in 2017.
Read 9 tweets
Milan Vojtek Profile picture
May 11
This is brutal. Tons of cryptos are as oversold or more than it was in the 2018 bear market, except BTC & ETH.

Some capital deployed here again.

Not necessarily these cryptos below, just using them for demonstration purposes as these are existed in the previous cycle.
#BTC
#XRP
Read 7 tweets
Milan Vojtek Profile picture
May 10
I compared a couple of alts - that already existed in the last cycle - and #BTC and I have to admit again that this cycle is completely different from this perspective.

The key points to compare:
- Cycle peaks
- The point when BTC is losing the 100 week MA Image
*First of all, it's pretty hard to determine the "cycle top".

According to HTF indicators I'd rather mark 2021 as the cycle top of BTC, but I stick to the actual data this time.
Facts: 2018 vs. 2022

Each coin - obviously - constantly lost its value from the cycle peak to the point where BTC lost the 100 week MA (ex. LINK)

Worst overall losses until the capitulation:
BTC: -70% vs. -49%
ETH: -87,4% vs. - 50,7%
LTC: -87% vs. -80,7%
LINK: -87,9% vs. -75,9%
Read 7 tweets
Milan Vojtek Profile picture
May 10
Okay, so let me speculate this time again.✍️

Now there are definitely less people interested in crypto than in last October, but probably still too many wants to pick up cheap coins.

Although many of us were sidelined last summer and having PTSD of a missing rally and... Image
...trying to believe that we are going to witness the same rally from these levels again. Market not always gives a 2nd chance.
The macro outlook completely changed since then - quantitative easing turned into tightening, inflation, energy crisis, supply chain issues are reality.
CT is full with different scenarios and everybody is 100% confident about of their assumptions.
- It's just the beginning, dead cat bounce and going lower, then up
- It's the beginning of a multi year macro bear & recession
- One more pump before recession
- Up only from here.
Read 4 tweets
Milan Vojtek Profile picture
Dec 7, 2021
Cycle top - lengthening cycles (thread).
1)
 Although I still see the possibility of a new ATH - at least statistically - I would not be disappointed if the top would be 69.000$ for this cycle.
I don't argue with the possibility but with the arguments itself.
2) My biggest concern is that people tend to give too much importance of halving dates.
I know it fundamentally positive (block reward halving) and important, but does it necessarily has to mark exact periods in the market?
3) My subjective, speculative perspective: find the points when #BTC found support on the 200 MA on the weekly TF after it made a new ATH.
Since the 200 WMA didn't exists before 2014, I draw the presumed place of it.
Read 6 tweets

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