Prices send signals to both supply and demand like a ringing phone. One of the two typically pick up. For many reasons, supply is not available, but the phone is still ringing, sooner or later demand has to answer. #OOTT
U.S. on-highway diesel prices are crazy high on a nominal basis, but we've still got a ways to go before we match the highest real prices from 2008.
This is key, the year-over-year change in real diesel prices this time around is higher than it was back in 2008... But that's comparing peak 2008 to now, we still don't know when diesel prices will come down.
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Long story short - the U.S. East Coast had a large part of it's import blanket pulled out from under it.
Looking at the PADD1 distillate supply/demand balance we can see that as in-region refinery production decreased due to refinery closures, PADD1 first relied on receipts (pipeline/tanker/barge) from other PADDs.
As the pandemic hit, (early 2020) the East Coast was inundated with supply up Colonial and Plantation Pipelines but then those receipts fell to around 600kb/d, until about Q3/4 of 2021.
Those of you who've followed me for a long time know, I have been a fan and defender of EIA my entire career. Sadly, that comes to an end today. This new API data browser is a massive step backwards in terms of usability and accessibility for EIA's data.
The old system was massively easier to use and understandable than this V2. I could navigate to what I wanted, click the key, get the code, copy/paste into excel, then run the EIA excel plug-in and boom my data appears. But now...
Now, I can navigate to the data series I want on the website, but as soon as I click the blue arrow I have to start from a generic menu of data items. Now I'm forced to go from PADD1 imports of Distillate fuel oil - all the way back to energy source!?!?!
Allow me to head off any confusion about recent U.S. - Russia import numbers. (thread) #OOTT
Russia is not a significant source of crude oil for U.S. refineries. But because total U.S. crude oil imports have fallen, Russia's share has gone up - that's basic math.
However, Russia is a significant supplier of "Unfinished oil" imports.
Interesting: Many vehicle manufactures have turned to Turbochargers - squeezing more power out of smaller engines but needing higher octane gasoline (premium) for optimal performance (i.e. what the EPA sticker says). #OOTT
This means more cars likely say "Premium recommended" (i.e. to get EPA sticker numbers), and not "Premium Required". At the same time, the share of premium gasoline sales is rising - up to 13%, the highest it's been since ~2003, and have recovered faster than other grades.
The share is even higher if only considering Reformulated gasoline - 18%, the highest share since ~2001
Despite the many events and developments in the oil world in 2019, the thing I think was the most influential = Satellites.
(Thread) #OOTT
There are now numerous satellite data service providers and entirely new analytical insights built from them. From the tracking of ships, reading of inventories from space, to tracking oil rig deployments, and even pipeline construction.
While these services are not new per se in 2019 - I think they certainly came to the forefront this year. For example: the analytical community was able to see and examine the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia almost the next day from satellite imagery.
In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this happened since monthly records began in 1973. #OOTT#TWIP bit.ly/38b67Kn
The United States is a net exporter of petroleum!
*me in my office when data was released...
Now - before everyone gets giddy let's put things into the proper context.