Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW37 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover Free Hit and double GW37 at length:

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In this latest article, I cover the best differentials to own in GW37: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/best-fpl-diffe…

Q: Best FH draft?

If I was on a FH this GW, I’d pick something like this:

Pickford
Cash Trent Mykolenko
Salah Son Zaha Coutinho
Richarlison Kane Ings (c)

If you’re having trouble affording this, Trent to Robertson to enable this team is a fine compromise to make...

... I will explain my selection process behind this team in the coming questions.

Q: Who is the best captain this week?

With Watkins' minutes in doubt for the first game of the double GW, I think Ings is the standout captain this week. I'm generally biased towards double GWers when it comes to captaincy and the same is the case this week...

... In my opinion, a Villa attacker has the highest ceiling in terms of expected points this week and with the way things have panned out, Ings is expected to start both fixtures. I prefer a Villa attacker to an Everton attacker this week as their underlying numbers are...

... much better - under Gerrard, they are averaging 1.5 xG and 2.2 big chances per home game as compared to Everton who are averaging 1.1 xG and 1.4 big chances per home game under Lampard. Villa's recent numbers suggest they have been unlucky to score more goals over the...

... past six matches as well - they are ranked 3rd for big chances and 4th for xG-non penalty in this spell. However, despite accumulating a xG of nearly 11, they have scored just seven times in this spell which makes them second in terms for underperformance in this period...

... I like both fixtures too - Palace are likely to be without Guehi which significantly weakens them while Burnley are 18th for xG conceded this calendar year with serious doubts on the availability of both Tarkowski and Mee. Ings is on penalties as well which always helps...

... He recorded three big chances against Liverpool the other day and was unlucky not to have notched - I think that will change in this double GW.

Q: Kane or KDB on Free Hit?

I'd go with Kane:

*Higher goal involvement over the season (42% v 37%)

*Better underlying numbers (xGi)

*West Ham at home defensively are decent, Burnley are 18th for xGc this calendar year

*Penalties

*Spurs are likely to score more goals according to the odds

Q: Why double Everton defence over double Villa defence?

Villa under Gerrard v Everton under Lampard

(home games)

xG conceded per game: 1.5 v 1.1
Big chances conceded per game: 1.9 v 0.8

As you can see, Everton statistically have the better defence. Having said...

... that, under Gerrard, Villa have been fairly predictable in terms of CS - having kept zero v the top eight and eight CS in 15 matches v the bottom 12. However, I would still back an Everton defender – particularly the upside with someone like Mykolenko who has really...

... caught my eye in recent weeks. Everton have recently switched their formation as a result of which Mykolenko has been playing wing-back over the past few games. Against Watford, he recorded three shots, two of them being in the box, and had an average position as high...

... as Richarlison. Playing in an in-form defence at the moment, Mykolenko has explosive potential to deliver at both ends of the field which makes him a really solid pick.

Further, Everton are much more solid at home as compared to away under Lampard - they are averaging...

... 1.1 xG conceded and 0.9 big chances conceded per home game as compared to averaging 2.1 xG conceded and 3.1 big chances conceded per away game under Lampard. Having kept three clean sheets in the previous four home fixtures, they look good to add to that tally.

According...

... to the bookmakers, Everton are the most likely team to keep at least one clean sheet this week which further adds to my optimism on the Everton defence.

Q: Why Pickford over Martinez on Free Hit?

*Better defence

*More saves (110 to Martinez's 89 this season)

*Better for bonus pts as he accumulates bonus quicker with a superior mins per baseline BPS ratio to Martinez

*I prefer double Villa attack to double defence. Similarly, I prefer double Everton defence over double Villa attack

*Cash and Digne are cheaper than Martinez and have a higher ceiling with their attacking potential

Q: Why Coutinho on a Free Hit? If you own him, would you keep him this week?

I’d keep Coutinho if I had him this week – in fact, I’d even have him on a Free Hit. As suggested earlier, I think Villa’s attackers have the highest ceiling this week. Coutinho should start...

... the first game at the very least and if he produces a good performance, he should be good for the second game too. His home underlying numbers are much better than his away underlying numbers which gives me confidence for my optimism.

Q: Why Trent over Robertson if funds allow?

Trent v Robertson

This calendar year (both have played similar mins)

Big chances created: 8 v 4
xGi: 5.4 v 3.1
Touches in final third: 460 v 436
FPL pts per start: 5.6 v 7.6

Robertson has performed better but Trent's underlying...

... data is much better. I would pick Trent on FH if possible!

Q: Why Cash over Digne?

Cash v Digne

(under Gerrard)

Mins per penalty area touch: 37 v 50
Mins per xA: 1293 v 841
Mins per xG: 956 v 2353

Cash has the greater goal threat and goes forward more hence I'd pick him on FH. Both Burnley/Palace tend to concede the majority...

... of their chances on his flank too. Digne is slightly more prone to rotation as well, having just come back from injury.

Q: In this section, I cover Zaha.

With eight goals in his previous 13 matches, Zaha is coming into the double GW in a rich vein of form. The general consensus is that Palace seem to struggle to create away from home - they are ranked 17th for xG away from home this season...

... but his team's lack of creativity hasn't stopped Zaha from scoring in recent times. In fact, he has six goals in his previous seven away games.

He's on penalties and high on confidence having recorded his best ever season when it comes to the number of goals he has...

... scored in a season in his career. Vieira seems to be rotating his team these days but so far, Zaha seems immune to the risk.

According to the bookmakers, Zaha is one of the highly tipped midfielders this Gameweek to return at least once over two games. What I like...

... about him is the fact that even if you're not on a Free Hit, you can choose to buy him this week since he is playing Man United in GW38 who...

... are conceding chances left, right and centre at the moment - so it is not a transfer that can benefit you in this Gameweek alone but in the last one as well.

Q: In this section, I cover Maddison and Vardy.

I haven’t picked any Leicester on Free Hit because as of now, I’m really not sure whether Maddison and Vardy are going to start both games. Both are coming back from injuries and could potentially be managed v Watford ahead...

... of the more difficult game against Chelsea. Vardy would be tempting if we get news that he is starting v Watford – he had 7 shots for Vardy against Norwich, including 3 big chances. I wouldn’t buy any Leicester if not on a Free Hit though! With a...

... Wed-Sun-Thu-Sun turnaround, I’m not sure whether Maddison and Vardy will play all of the games.

Q: Keep/sell Salah?

Since AFCON:

Mane v Salah v Diaz v Jota

Mins per non-penalty xGi: 135 v 93 v 159 v 142
FPL pts per start: 6.3 v 7.8 v 5.7 v 7.6

Salah remains the Liverpool attacker of choice to have. No player in the league has underperformed on his non-penalty xG...

... more than Salah since AFCON. Southampton I believe is a fixture which is prime Salah territory – no team has conceded more big chances than Southampton in this calendar year. They are averaging nearly three big chances conceded in this period and have been very...

... obliging to their opponents of late.

Q: KDB to Son?

I think I would. Son’s expected points are slightly higher in both GWs 37 and 38 as compared to KDB and he’s a better captaincy option in GW38 in particular when Spurs play Norwich. He’s playing for the Golden Boot which always helps.

Q: Kane to Son?

It’s honestly gotten to that stage where I don’t think it is worth swapping. Keep Kane as a differential. His underlying numbers are still really good:

Since Kulusevski, Son and Kane started playing together

Kane v Son
Non penalty xGi: 9.2 v 8.5
Goal involvements: 16 v 17
FPL points: 105 v 126

Q: When to Free Hit?

If you already have several Everton/Aston Villa players in your team coupled with a weak bench, Free Hit in GW38 could be better. In that case, you can choose to target more doublers this week and go all out. If not, I think Free Hit in 37...

... is better as you wouldn't want too many Everton or Aston Villa players in your squad as they play Arsenal and City away on the last day of the season.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already covered Ings and Vardy in my thread. Gelhardt should start with James suspended and needs a goal to beat his target. Gordon too seems realistic as he needs a goal and clean sheet point to overcome his target.

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