Paediatric hepatitis twitter is a little wild at the moment
As a result, there is a lot of stuff circulating which is totally incorrect
Whilst there's much we don't know, there is some stuff we KNOW is not true
A short thread to bust some myths 💥
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The important take-away is that these cases COULD be linked to #COVID19 and this must be investigated, but there is little certainty over *any* of the current hypotheses
Lots of people however seem certain it is related to covid, and therefore false links have been made
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First, a recent paper from Japan purports to show an epidemiological link between Omicron and cases of paediatric hepatitis
It actually just shows big countries have more people, and more people means more cases of #COVID19 and hepatitis
A case of post-covid autoimmune hepatitis is being shared as if this is an explanation
This case was diagnosed by anti-lkm antibodies, a test for autoimmune hepatitis which should be done on all cases, and if +ve would EXCLUDE them from the outbreak
This is VERY important - the case definition means that causes such as autoimmune hepatitis and acute covid hepatitis would explicitly be excluded from this outbreak analysis
It is puzzling precisely because these causes are being investigated and have not been found
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Now @BrodinPetter has proposed a very elegant hypothesis in Adenovirus triggering activation of intestinal reservoir of #SARSCoV2 and subsequent superantigen stimulated liver disease
This has no supporting evidence *yet*, but needs investigating
A separate study from Boston children's hospital with a larger sample size did not replicate this finding, despite antigen being present in blood of children with acute #COVID19
This doesn't rule it out, but shows the case is far from cut and dry
Enough people have shown why the new paper on the link between omicron cases and paediatric hepatitis is beyond worthless
It does however demonstrate the dangerous phenomenon of:
- Coming to a conclusion first
- Then searching uncritically for anything that supports you
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These cases are serious, and we need to use our best scientific knowledge to understand them - fortunately lots of great people are doing this
Covid could potentially play a role, and this hypothesis has been on the table since the beginning
But it is far from the only one
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Although I am concerned by the state of discourse on this topic on twitter, it was nice to be reminded at #ESPID2022 that the real experts approach this with open, critical and inquisitive minds
Thomas is right, but in some ways maybe he's also wrong
For Europe, broadly speaking there is not much difference in outcomes - almost all these observed differences are within the margin of error, or are subject to uncertainties of the modelling
I think that *does* tell us something about the differences in policies
Namely, that the differences between policies of European nations are all of pretty marginal significance
Demographics, healthcare infrastructure, stochasticity etc dwarf their effects
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We argue over a lot of these things, often in a very heated way (remember all the comparisons of "plague island" to the supposedly much superior policies of continental Europe?)
The reality is they are small-fry - not to say they do nothing, but the differences are small
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Firstly, a few people have said that the "extreme" or "idealised" form of focused protection was never seriously suggested
This was specifically what was outlined in the original proposal of the Great Barrington Declaration - with non-vulnerable resuming "life as normal"
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I maintain that all non-vulnerable people resuming life "as normal" would have resulted in such high prevalence of infection as to cause unacceptable harms
Including the non-vulnerable themselves in a short time period, as well as unacceptable spill over to the vulnerable
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A thread on how good everything is going in the UK currently with regards to #COVID19 despite no remaining restrictions
Only necessary because so many people are now just blatantly lying about it
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Random population sampling via the @ONS which is TOTALLY UNAFFECTED by how much people in the community decide to test themselves show prevalence is down
In fact, it is very, very down
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Prevalence is now lowest in CHILDREN by a long way (less than half of almost any other age group)
Even better, this started falling WEEKS before schools closed for Easter, so has literally nothing to do with schools being open or closed