Alasdair Munro Profile picture
May 15 11 tweets 5 min read
Paediatric hepatitis twitter is a little wild at the moment

As a result, there is a lot of stuff circulating which is totally incorrect

Whilst there's much we don't know, there is some stuff we KNOW is not true

A short thread to bust some myths 💥

1/ 🧵
The important take-away is that these cases COULD be linked to #COVID19 and this must be investigated, but there is little certainty over *any* of the current hypotheses

Lots of people however seem certain it is related to covid, and therefore false links have been made

2/
First, a recent paper from Japan purports to show an epidemiological link between Omicron and cases of paediatric hepatitis

It actually just shows big countries have more people, and more people means more cases of #COVID19 and hepatitis

See thread

3/
People are also sharing cases of #COVID19 causing hepatitis in other children as if this is proof

These are categorically NOT what is happening in the current outbreak, as acute covid hepatitis is easy to diagnose, and most cases are not covid +ve

4/
journals.lww.com/jpgn/Abstract/…
A case of post-covid autoimmune hepatitis is being shared as if this is an explanation

This case was diagnosed by anti-lkm antibodies, a test for autoimmune hepatitis which should be done on all cases, and if +ve would EXCLUDE them from the outbreak

5/
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
This is VERY important - the case definition means that causes such as autoimmune hepatitis and acute covid hepatitis would explicitly be excluded from this outbreak analysis

It is puzzling precisely because these causes are being investigated and have not been found

6/
Now @BrodinPetter has proposed a very elegant hypothesis in Adenovirus triggering activation of intestinal reservoir of #SARSCoV2 and subsequent superantigen stimulated liver disease

This has no supporting evidence *yet*, but needs investigating

7/
It's worth noting the hypothesis leans on the hypothesis of a similar mechanism behind MIS-C

This is based on work showing S antigen in blood of MIS-C patients in a study from Massachusetts

However...

8/
jci.org/articles/view/…
A separate study from Boston children's hospital with a larger sample size did not replicate this finding, despite antigen being present in blood of children with acute #COVID19

This doesn't rule it out, but shows the case is far from cut and dry

9/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35213684/
The reason these cases are noteworthy is there is *no obvious cause*

As described elsewhere, Adenovirus 41 appears so frequently to raise suspicion, but wouldn't normally cause this kind of disease

Everything is on the table, but needs investigating carefully, without bias

10/
I won't go into all the potential hypotheses here as it's not the point, and there are plenty of good documents from @UKHSA, @ECDC_EU and @CDCgov

My advice would be: anyone who suggests the cause is obvious is not a trustworthy source of information on this topic

11/end

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More from @apsmunro

May 13
Enough people have shown why the new paper on the link between omicron cases and paediatric hepatitis is beyond worthless

It does however demonstrate the dangerous phenomenon of:
- Coming to a conclusion first
- Then searching uncritically for anything that supports you

1/🧵
These cases are serious, and we need to use our best scientific knowledge to understand them - fortunately lots of great people are doing this

Covid could potentially play a role, and this hypothesis has been on the table since the beginning

But it is far from the only one

2/
Although I am concerned by the state of discourse on this topic on twitter, it was nice to be reminded at #ESPID2022 that the real experts approach this with open, critical and inquisitive minds

All science needs critically appraising

Even if you want it to be true

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 6
Thomas is right, but in some ways maybe he's also wrong

For Europe, broadly speaking there is not much difference in outcomes - almost all these observed differences are within the margin of error, or are subject to uncertainties of the modelling

1/🧵
I think that *does* tell us something about the differences in policies

Namely, that the differences between policies of European nations are all of pretty marginal significance

Demographics, healthcare infrastructure, stochasticity etc dwarf their effects

2/
We argue over a lot of these things, often in a very heated way (remember all the comparisons of "plague island" to the supposedly much superior policies of continental Europe?)

The reality is they are small-fry - not to say they do nothing, but the differences are small

3/
Read 4 tweets
May 5
There's been some interesting points raised in response to this post, mainly in regards to my criticisms of focused protection

I will try to address some of them here!

1/🧵
Firstly, a few people have said that the "extreme" or "idealised" form of focused protection was never seriously suggested

This was specifically what was outlined in the original proposal of the Great Barrington Declaration - with non-vulnerable resuming "life as normal"

2/ Image
I maintain that all non-vulnerable people resuming life "as normal" would have resulted in such high prevalence of infection as to cause unacceptable harms

Including the non-vulnerable themselves in a short time period, as well as unacceptable spill over to the vulnerable

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 4
Two of the most controversial ideologies of the pandemic were Zero covid and Focussed protection

Should the UK have pursued these as a goal?

Part 2 of the pandemic review is now online

Subscribe on Substack for more!

alasdairmunro.substack.com/p/zero-covid-v…
Despite frequent comparisons with the NZ, the UK was never in a position to replicate their zero covid response

International integration and much higher levels of disease seeding rendered it impossible

It was a tempting fantasy Image
In some ways, most countries who couldn’t achieve elimination all applied focussed protection, just to varying degrees

But the idea young people could exist without mitigations completely separate to the old or vulnerable is a fallacy Image
Read 5 tweets
May 3
This is such an important question it’s worth it’s own thread

Antibiotic overuse in young children is a massive problem

Not just for antibiotic resistance, but because it may increase risks of developing immune mediated conditions

1/🧵
The overwhelming majority of infections in infancy and childhood are due to self limiting viral illnesses

Kids have A LOT of these, with up to 11 episodes a year being considered “normal”

2/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18167154/
However it is common for doctors to prescribe antibiotics, particularly for very young children

This is despite there being little to no benefit for most of these infections even when the pathogen is bacterial

3/
bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
A thread on how good everything is going in the UK currently with regards to #COVID19 despite no remaining restrictions

Only necessary because so many people are now just blatantly lying about it

1/🧵
Random population sampling via the @ONS which is TOTALLY UNAFFECTED by how much people in the community decide to test themselves show prevalence is down

In fact, it is very, very down

2/ Image
Prevalence is now lowest in CHILDREN by a long way (less than half of almost any other age group)

Even better, this started falling WEEKS before schools closed for Easter, so has literally nothing to do with schools being open or closed

*NOT affected by testing*

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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