Today Finnish government announced intent to apply to NATO (Finnish Parliament will vote on it likely already Monday). Sweden will also apply. Both will be welcomed with open arms at NATO
There is talk of NATO-Russian border doubling. Let's do Thread
Mappy Thread About NATO 2/
The current border between NATO and Russia is about 1,000 km (600 miles) and when Finland joins NATO, Finland adds 1,200 km (800 miles) to that border. It sounds like the border does double. But actually, it is FAR FAR FAR worse for Russia than that...
Mappy Thread About NATO 3/
So to be clear, the stories you read are true. They just are misleading, in how bad it is for Russia. Reality is FAR FAR worse than doubling of the border
Let's start with Kaliningrad
Kalina-whatingrad? Yes. This bit on the map:
Mappy Thread About NATO 4/
Kaliningrad (in red on left) is part of Russia, but not connected to the rest of Russia.
It is like Alaska is not connected to continental USA, it is on other side of Canada
Or how Gibraltar belongs to Britain, but sits on the Southern tip of Spain.
Mappy Thread About NATO 5/
Of Russia's border with NATO, about 400 km (250 miles) is the Kaliningrad borders with Poland and Lithuania. These are technically borders between NATO and Russia, but in a war, this area would immediately be surrounded
Mappy Thread About NATO 6/
Because there is no land access from Russia to Kaliningrad, in time of war with NATO, it would not be a strategic opportunity for Russia to stage attack against NATO. It would be surrounded and blocked, not unlike how Mariupol was in Ukraine war
Mappy Thread About NATO 7/
In case of 'invasion' one way or the other, in a prolonged war between NATO & Russia, the relevant border is the rest of the border with NATO, not this enclave of Kaliningrad. Instead of 1,000 km, we now have 600 km to consider. Next look at Lapland..
Mappy Thread About NATO 8/
Up North, in Lapland, Norway (=NATO) & Russia share about 150km of a border. This crooked borderline (red line) follows a river. But if you come 200km (120 miles) West from border, the narrow point is just 30km (20 miles) across (blue dotted line).
Mappy Thread About NATO 9/
If there was a (prolonged) war between Russia & NATO, actual frontier would be this narrow point, 30 km wide (20 miles) rather than that snaky riverbed, in very difficult area that Norway/NATO could not hope to defend. The narrow passage EASY to defend
Mappy Thread About NATO 10/
So while it is true, that currently NATO has about 1,000 km of border with Russia, the militarily relevant border is only 30km up in Norway, plus about 450km at Estonia & Latvia bordering directly Russia.
Mappy Thread About NATO 11/
If Russia sees actual militarily relevant border going from 480km adding Finland 1,200km plus making the Norwegian part now count fully, it goes to 480+1,200+120 = 1,800 km. The border does not double, it quadruples in size
Mappy Thread About NATO 12/
The military headache to paranoid Russian Generals who always fear that Germany and Britain will attack them again (often with France, and recently adding USA) - now their 'safe' border is suddenly expanding FOUR-FOLD. No wonder they are freaking out
Part 2 is up
After looking at the simplistic land border DISTANCE matter there is something far more serious for Russian military ambitions: the sea lanes.
Part 2 of our mappy things Threads looks at how the Baltic changes for NATO with Finland & Sweden
On Monday Judge Chutkan in DC (Jack Smith 2) case will hold a hearing about putting a gag order on Herr Hezbollah, the nation's Terrorist-In-Chief. Trump was under protective order. He breached it many times. So this is now his 'final warning'
Let's do a Thread
GAG ORDER THREAD/2
Don't look at me like that! This is JUSTICE. It is EXACTLY the same legal standard that would apply to you and me. Nothing more, nothing less. Trump is a FIRST TIME OFFENDER; has NEVER been convicted of any crime (yet). He was put on a 'protective order' FIRST
GAG ORDER THREAD/3
Then Trump repeatedly broke that protective order. We WITNESSED IT LIVE on TV and on social media, REPEATEDLY
But the Judge CANNOT do anything about it. Until she is FORMALLY told by the prosecution. She CANNOT do anything yet. It would be same for you and me
We certainly feel it was taking too long. In reality this is about par for the course, in some ways FASTER than normal, for such a large criminal conspiracy. Timing is similar to Watergate
FIRST of PLANNERS of Jan 6 go to trial, in Georgia in two weeks !!!
So January 6th, 2021 was two years and 9 months ago. Over 1,000 of the violent mob have been caught, over half prosecuted, and prison sentences for those running up to more than a decade in prison. That is justice
The ORGANIZERS of the Jan 6th plot are Trump, the Seditious Six..
The ORGANIZERS of Jan 6 are
Trump
Seditious Six (Giuliani, Flynn etc)
Evil Eleven of Congress (Gosar, Gym, Gaetz etc)
and a handful others (Roger Stone, Bannon etc)
They are ALL CAUGHT
Jack Smith STARTED to prosecute the organizers. Look who he has as WITNESSES to this crime
Trump calls Hezbollah "very smart" for their terrorist attack? Same Senile Man called Putin smart for invading Ukraine. And called murdering dictators MBS and Kim Jong Un smart
Meanwhile Trump has called HIS OWN CABINET and HIS OWN GENERALS idiots & stupid
General Mattis: Trump's not mature, a 5th grader
General McMaster: he's a dope, kindergartner idiot
Colonel Esper: irresponsible
General Milley: crazy
General Hytin: an idiot
General Kelly: Trump's crazy, an unhinged idiot
Next...
Then let's ask Trump White House staff, people Trump selected:
VP Pence: Trump is reckless
CoS 1 Priebus: he's an idiot
CoS 2 (Kelly, in above)
CoS 3 Mulvaney: terrible human being, a clown show
CoS 4 Meadows: Trump is worthless
SoS Tillerson: he's a fucking moron
Trump was massively embarrassed in New York, and that trial still continues. But this incident (Trump sitting in NY court for 3 days and then bailed) exposes insight into how incredibly stupid, and self-destructive Trump is
Let's do a Thread
New York New York Thread /2
So what happened? Trump sat in the civil trial - he is NOT required to be there (he must attend all criminal trials which start in March 2024). He feuded with the judge, got hit with a gag order, then stormed out of New York. Let's see how dumb it was
New York New York Thread /3
Donald the Duck McTrump's whole brand is based on the carefully constructed fake illusion, that he is somehow a 'billionaire'. WE know he is not. That Trump is a fake, a con-artist, living on other people's money. But his SUPPORTERS believe that lie
What happens next? The House cannot conduct any other business until it has selected a new House Speaker. The GOP is in civil war. It may be chaos for a while. Most likely they find a suitable Republican Speaker
DEMs do not have votes for DEM Speaker
BUT DEMs could make a deal
If a slice of Republicans (as few as 6) ally with DEMs, then that alliance could select (a Republican) speaker
Realistically the most logical such choice is an EX House Republican, like Liz Cheney
Because of GOP civil war, DEMs have leverage now
This is the deal I suggest:
DEMs make deal for ANY Republican who they can trust (like Liz Cheney, Kinzinger) where promise is 2 House Votes every week. One vote on legislation provided by GOP, the other vote legislation provided by DEMs. Both will get a floor vote each week
With Friday's bombshell news in court filing by Jack Smith of 3 more prosecution witnesses - now just about as big as they come - let's do a Thread about the flippers in Trump's life, the rats who all testify under oath, in criminal courts, against Trump
Flipper Thread/2
Trump committed an act of insurgency against America. That word is rarely used. The legal EFFECT is the same as 'treason'. Trump committed a crime which is essentially as bad as treason
So who does Jack Smith have as a witness? Trump's OWN Attorney General Barr
Flipper Thread/3
Bill Barr was not just the nation's top lawyer, as Attorney General, when this plot was first hatched - Barr learned of the idea - and TOLD TRUMP IT IS ILLEGAL. That is what Barr will testify under oath. That Trump KNEW this plot is illegal