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Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
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May 17 β€’ 10 tweets β€’ 4 min read
Quick thread on long covid & workforce & why it matters:

Today UK report lowest unemployment for 50 years - fair to say there is a labour shortage here right now.

But part of low unemployment is simply that we have *fewer* people to work cos of long term ill health 1/8
Long term sickness is higher than expected (350,000 people) and the Bank of England last week particularly highlighted Long Covid.

Women more likely to be not seeking work cos of sickness than men - consistent with Long Covid which affects women more often 2/8
The 350,000 people reported by the Bank of England is very similar to the 346,000 people ONS estimates as living with Long Covid that affects their day-to-day activities a lot. (it won't be a direct overlap though) 3/8
And Long Covid does not resolve quickly for a lot of people - ONS estimates almost 800,000 have had symptoms for more than a year.

So more and more people with Long Covid can lead a signifcant number ending up no longer being able to work. 4/8
It's not a problem entirely solved by highly vaccinated population or Omicron though - over 400,000 people developed Long Covid from Omicron (and that's not including the big March wave!). 5/8
While vaccination is protective against Long Covid (cuts risks by maybe about half, hopefully reduces duration but not enough data yet), ONS nonetheless estimate that about 6% of people developed activity-limiting long covid after 3 vax doses from 1st Omicron infection. 6/8
The reason I'm doing *yet another thread* on this is because a new wave is on its way. And while it may not cause mass hospitalisations, it will likely cause another wave of long covid.

Even ignoring the impact on individuals, we can't keep stressing our workforce like this 7/8
We should take preventative measures - clean air indoors, hybrid working where possible esp during waves, mandating high quality masks when new variants emerge / cases high, *support* people to stay home if positive.

One practical way is the pledge! 8/8
covidpledge.co.uk
PS this thread from @dgurdasani1 also v worth reading on similar vein.

should read 5%!

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
May 16
We've never had less data in the face of rising new variants. 🧡

The European CDC designated Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 as variants of concern on Friday. They expect a new wave in Europe in the next 2 months. 1/4

ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events…
In S Africa, where BA.4/5 are causing a wave right now, there is much less testing going on than previously. Admissions are going up, but are also lagged and have jumps (that may or may not be real).
SA *may* be close to peaking but v hard to tell... 2/4
BA.4/5 variants are growing fast here too (as is BA.2.12.2, causing a wave in US) but there is so little PCR testing happening now. This is the first new variant takeover where we are flying so blind.

We will only have limited warning this time. And who knows for next time. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
May 15
THREAD on why excess annual deaths are *not* a great *comparison* of impact of pandemic policy *between* countries.

TLDR: excess deaths have competing factors + depend on pandemic policy BUT ALSO popn health AND populatn age AND existing health systems etc. 1/11
Here's an illustrative example. Deaths in an "average" pre-pandemic year ("baseline deaths") will be a combination of deaths from (non-infectious) cancer, heart disease, diabetes; flu & pneumonia (and other infectious diseases); everything else. 2/11
How deaths are split among these causes, and how many deaths per population, are different for each country! E.g. depends on population health (& inequalities), population age, different levels of some diseases (e.g. malaria; flu); how well the health system functions etc 3/11
Read 12 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
May 13
THREAD on the NHS crisis that doesn't seem to be in the news...

The latest Omicron Covid wave is on the wane but hospitals remain severely overstretched - by over 2 yrs of Covid & over a decade of underfunding.

Things are not good if you are sick - some charts 1/9
Ambulance response time for the most life threatening conditions are over target everywhere except London - but for serious, potentially life threatening, problems they are way over target everywhere. SW is worst hit. 2/9 ImageImage
Things are no better once you get to hospital - the proportion of people waiting a long time in A&E before admission is way higher than ever before and rising.

And reports are saying it's much worse than even these figures show. 3/9 ImageImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
May 6
THREAD on current Covid situation in the UK:

TLDR: rapidly coming down from recent Omicron BA.2 peak but consequences of high infections are becoming clear.

Covering vax, infections, hospitals, deaths, long covid, variants...

1/14
On vaccination: we've made good progress in giving eligible adults their 4th dose but less well on boosting immuno-compromised adults.

But vax of 5-11 yrs is basically not happening. Many will be ineligible due to recent covid infection, not enough to explain low numbers 2/14
Good news on current wave though - ONS infection survey shows steep drops now in number of people infected and across all ages - particularly kids, helped by recent holidays.

Hospitalisations are falling rapidly too in all nations and across all ages. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
May 3
Thread on Omicron subvariants and what they might mean for UK:

TLDR: reasonable chance of a new wave of infections in 4-6 weeks or so, boosters should reduce admissions & deaths but not entirely. Ditto long covid. Can expect more future waves too. 1/12
the UK original Omicron wave was BA.1 in Dec/Jan, followed by BA.2 wave in March.

BA.2 remains dominant (98% of cases) and we are now on the firm downward slope of that wave, with infections & admissions decreasing rapidly.

But... 2/12 Image
South Africa has just entered a new wave driven by new Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, while in the US Omicron variant BA.2.12.1 is growing rapidly.

A few recent papers have shed more light into what this might mean... 3/12 ImageImageImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Apr 29
🧡I was on GMB this morning responding to Katherine Birbalsingh's comments that girls aren't choosing physics at A-Level because they don't like the hard maths and are more empathetic than boys...

I had a *lot* more to say but sadly didn't get time.

So here is a thread! 1/14
First - she said at the session that she'd never looked at A-level choice differences by gender *until the day before* and *had no idea*. How can she then *possibly know* why girls aren't choosing physics?

Doesn't stop her resorting to lazy gender stereotypes though. 2/14
It cannot be about the difficulty of maths when girls do equally well in maths as boys at both GCSE & A-level & more girls do maths than physics at A-Level (her school 59% maths vs 16% physics girls).

The maths in Physics A-Level *cannot* be harder than in Maths A-Level! 3/14
Read 16 tweets

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