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May 18 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/2

#finanstwitter #fintwit #inflation

Core PCE been down to 0.3 last 2 MoMs, sure, headline been high but will that stick around? 🤷‍♂️

High headline might hold also core back .. and ppl already bought a lot of "stuff" last 2 years, probably a lot of spending moved fwd. 🤷‍♂️
2/2 However..

Good thing I am not a hairdresser..
@HogfeldtJohanna

Hur resonerar ni är och vilken data följer ni?
Jag påstår inte att jag vet! Men hade jag fått gissa så hade jag inte landat där ni landar :)

ht @AndreasSteno

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More from @thecarefreebear

Baloo Profile picture
May 19
#fintwit #finanstwitter

1/n According to "my" crude estimate, "stocks" are more expensive then 1st nov last year when ERP was at 2,96.. where is these variables in 1 year? 🤷‍♂️ ImageImage
2/n How long will financial conditions tighten .. I guess we have to look no further than the inflation prints.

as for 30y,no idea .. iirc supply surprised on the downside on may 2. Growth expectations surely took a hit yesterday, but who knows where EPS will end up..
3/n the base case(as well as consensus) feels like fin. cond. will continue to tighten until beginning next year both 30y and fwd EPS are hard to predict for my, Id be inclined to guess that EPS has some downside to go..
Read 4 tweets
Baloo Profile picture
Jul 16, 2021
@MacroAlf @JackFarley96 Did someone say get started? 👀
@MacroAlf @JackFarley96 I think that what leads to confusion is that there are a lot of constraints, legal and in terms of "wanting to take risks" on banks and it is the mix that leads to their choice of composition of balance sheet.
@MacroAlf @JackFarley96 I am going to take it from the top and possibly on the chin, for the benefit of the rest who also don't know :)

This is a typical bank b/s. Now let's make some "simplified defitions" i.e not true once Image
Read 17 tweets
Baloo Profile picture
Apr 10, 2021
1/ #finanstwitter #pratapengar Great update on @RaoulGMI thinking! He is indeed right that we, to some extent, have to rethink valuation in the light of the dynamics of the monetary system. I am not betting that much on the next hot/new things..

2/..since these things require too much energy to try to capture. Rather I try to be on top of the political impact on markets, which requires much less precision imo.

We might get a big drop in markets which is indeed the consensus view atm, but there is also the chance that..
3/.." powers that be" powers through. They are after all smart people, regardless of what big parts of #fintwit say. Neither China nor the US has anything to gain on a "collapse" and they control the levers to some extent..
Read 5 tweets

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