First off this is an extraordinarily difficult series to analyze. We have two brilliant and dynamic coaches going head to head, who are willing to make any adjustment necessary to win a game or the series.
The tactical possibilities are dizzying.
The tactical possibilities are dizzying.
Another reason is that you can throw out the regular season results of the two teams. Klay didn’t play in the first Dubs loss, and Dray didn’t play in the second two.
And the Mavs only loss was prior to the great midseason trade that instantly made them a contender.
And the Mavs only loss was prior to the great midseason trade that instantly made them a contender.
These two teams have literally never faced each other before.
Do the Warriors go big or small?
I would like to see them start Looney on the non-shooting Powell for two reasons:
First because he he’s not a bad option to guard Doncic on a switch.
I would like to see them start Looney on the non-shooting Powell for two reasons:
First because he he’s not a bad option to guard Doncic on a switch.
Second because the Warriors are desperate for healthy bodies. Mavs are both younger and deeper, and in a long series there is a distinct chance they do to the Warriors what they did to the Suns:
Wear them down.
Wear them down.
Play Looney as much as possible, at least early in the series.
Having said that, he probably won’t play much because Kidd is a genius and he’s got a great option to Powell in the middle: Maxi Kleber.
Having said that, he probably won’t play much because Kidd is a genius and he’s got a great option to Powell in the middle: Maxi Kleber.
Kleber is a great shooting stretch 5 who will likely force Looney off the court.
I believer Kerr will match up small with him to counter.
I believer Kerr will match up small with him to counter.
How should the Warriors guard Doncic?
In philosophy, just like they guarded Jokic. If you can take away one thing from him, it’s his ability to create for teammates. Single team as much as possible, stay at home on everyone else.
Force him to take EVERY shot.
In philosophy, just like they guarded Jokic. If you can take away one thing from him, it’s his ability to create for teammates. Single team as much as possible, stay at home on everyone else.
Force him to take EVERY shot.
On offense, run as much as possible. Transition defense is an Achilles heel.
Halfcourt defense is another. Target him every single possession.
Get him in foul trouble. WEAR HIM DOWN.
Halfcourt defense is another. Target him every single possession.
Get him in foul trouble. WEAR HIM DOWN.
Unfortunately the sort of targeting required runs against Kerr’s philosophy. Until it’s winning time.
Kidd will have no such qualms about targeting Curry and Poole.
But I digress.
Kidd will have no such qualms about targeting Curry and Poole.
But I digress.
If you’re thinking this strategy was easier against Jokic due to the fact that Dray wasn’t put into switches, you’re correct. But I have witnessed this strategy employed against another HOF point guard.
By a HOF coach.
By a HOF coach.
Nellie did it to Steve Nash and 7 Seconds or Less with a vastly inferior Warriors team, in a game I recapped:
goldenstateofmind.com/2009/12/27/122…
goldenstateofmind.com/2009/12/27/122…
If it worked against Nash it will work against Doncic. Here’s the thing: Nash was in world class shape. Doncic is, shall we say, not.
Also, he’s not a great enough shooter to really punish single coverage. 47 - 35 - 74.
This is a winning strategy.
Also, he’s not a great enough shooter to really punish single coverage. 47 - 35 - 74.
This is a winning strategy.
So who guards him? Wiggins.
Can’t put Dray on him, because he’ll simply force a switch. You want Dray in help position.
Kerr uses Wiggins to chase Doncic over screens and prevent the step back or pull-up.
Can’t put Dray on him, because he’ll simply force a switch. You want Dray in help position.
Kerr uses Wiggins to chase Doncic over screens and prevent the step back or pull-up.
Can Poole play in this series? This may wind up being as important a question as the coverage on Doncic. Because of what’s coming for Curry in crunchtime.
The blitz.
The blitz.
Kidd has a full nuclear anyone but Curry philosophy that served him well in the regular season.
Can the Warriors overcome it without Poole next to Curry in the backcourt?
Can the Warriors overcome it without Poole next to Curry in the backcourt?
On the face of it, it seems unlikely to me that the Curry - Poole backcourt will work in this series. Because Kidd won’t let it work.
Both Denver and Memphis simply ended Poole’s existence at the end of those series…
Both Denver and Memphis simply ended Poole’s existence at the end of those series…
It was as simple as guarding him with playoff length and crowding him. Couldn’t get his shot off, couldn’t go around.
And targeting him relentlessly on the other. He’s a turnstile.
And targeting him relentlessly on the other. He’s a turnstile.
You might think Kidd will run out of defenders. There’s DFS for Curry and Bullock for Klay, but then who? Brunson, Dinwiddie?
I’ll be interested to see how they fare if they take turns on Poole. But don’t forget about Frank Nkitilina…
I’ll be interested to see how they fare if they take turns on Poole. But don’t forget about Frank Nkitilina…
Nkitilina is a defensive wizard and Kidd loves him. Relied on him heavily in last series.
Bottom line I think Kidd ends Poole’s life at will. Hunts him relentlessly with Doncic on one end, shuts him down on the other.
Bottom line I think Kidd ends Poole’s life at will. Hunts him relentlessly with Doncic on one end, shuts him down on the other.
So who wins? I like the Warriors for all the reasons I outlined in the Memphis series. IQ, experience, championship DNA.
Curry Klay and Dray.
And maybe one other key factor: end game FT shooting.
Curry Klay and Poole: 90%
Doncic: 74%. /fin
Curry Klay and Dray.
And maybe one other key factor: end game FT shooting.
Curry Klay and Poole: 90%
Doncic: 74%. /fin
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