Gaurav Sabnis Profile picture
May 19 32 tweets 7 min read
Ah okay, something I've taught in class before. So short thread with the full story.

This ad is over a decade old. And first went viral 5-6 years ago with this very LOL sentiment. Making people think the company or ad agency overlooked something blatantly obvious.

Full story...
...is a lot more logical. Because obviously, there's no way this ad could pass through multiple eyes attached to sentient brains without anyone realizing that the woman is extremely pregnant already.

That, apparently WAS the point of the ad. As the Belgian company explained.
The whole point *WAS* for people to point this out and laugh. And Predictor had a response ready. That their tests are so extremely 99.99% accurate that they are even more accurate than a bulging belly.

It was deliberate absurdist hyperbole to go viral.

They did!
One of their jocular responses was, "she is actually an actress wearing a fake belly to rehearse a role and took the test between rehearsals 🤭🤭🤭".

This is one of the most brilliant viral ad campaigns ever. Going viral every other month somewhere even a decade later.
A proper professional advertisement has sooooo many people involved in approving it at every stage, that rarely does something escape notice. If there's something unusual or even offensive in an ad, it is there on purpose. Usually with the sole aim of going viral somehow.
I make living teaching students how the marketing sausage is made, which often makes me the buzzkill in such situations. That ads are NOT short films or works of art, even though they do their best to appear so.

They are cold hard business decisions made in an office.
Nope. Also something I talk about in class. Pepsi (and Kendall) knew exactly what the reaction was going to be. They most likely had an apology drafted alongside the ad.

And the VP Brad Jakeman was at Pepsi for months after. Quit to start his own thing.

And his career has flourished since the Kendall Jenner ad.
Sort of, but it's a bit more nuanced than that. As long as you immediately apologize and backtrack, you come out unscathed in the long run. I don't know of anyone who boycotted Pepsi over that ad. Cos Pepsi and Kendall instantly went mea culpa.

Both Pepsi and Kendall Jenner are massive brands. The ad wasn't just some film school project made by 6 people who missed. Dozens, hundreds of people were involved. It beggars belief that not a single one saw what the internet instantly saw.
Go read Pepsi's apology after the ad caught fire online. Dripping with sincerity and contrition and inclusiveness. Free media it was. And people quickly moved on.

Pepsi is a "reminder advertising" brand now, not a "persuasion advertising" brand.
There are broadly 3 types of ads, depending on the brand, product, market, etc.

Awareness - like new GM electric cars, to inform the customer

Persuasion - like Apple ads, telling you why you should buy their product

Reminder - like Pepsi, Coke, McD, Geico, just "remember me!"
Pepsi is such a mature brand and cola/soda is such a declining (and still distribution dependent) product that their only real advertising goal now is to just stay at the top of your mind for the next time you crave a soda. Persuasion they did in the 1970s.
So be it endorsement or title sponsorship or even that seemingly tone deaf Kendall Jenner ad, as long as the name Pepsi breaks through the clutter & noise, without any lasting damage, the ad did its basic job.

Sure, commentators will criticize it. But revenue isn't hit.
The instant sincere apology meant they walked away unscathed and not even remotely "cancelled". I have a bunch of before-after data to show that the Kendall BLM "controversy" did not hurt Pepsi financially at all. And arguably helped in the short to medium term.
Obviously no brand manager or ad exec is going to admit to this strategy on the record in public. But it's my job to dig deeper, talk to candid industry folks, than just column of the week takes. And give students the bigger picture, beyond blogs and podcasts. The grisly details.
Same reason I seem so Elon obsessed, lol. I'm not a day trader or business book reader or mutual fund manager to get personally invested in his hagiography. That's for CNBC, WSJ, podcast types. My job is to be the skeptic, dig deeper, look at actual numbers and facts.
A lot of people are like "Musk ji ne kiya hai toh soch samajh ke hi Kiya Hoga". Believing that the richest man in the world is a visionary efficient genius is so much easier and nicer than checking under the hood and kicking the tires on valuations & projections & such.
And when you do that, dispassionately, it becomes clear that Tesla stock crossed $1000 this year, not based on net present value of future revenues & profits. It crossed a $1000 on the belief that it will get to $2000 & $3000 & $4000. It's realistic value is about $300.
That's why everyone and their Uncle Bill is either shorting #TSLA or like Elon himself, selling it by the billions. The smart money knows this is the time to bank the returns.

Elon knows he really shouldn't be the richest just like Trump knew he really shouldn't be president.
But having reached their respective mountains, neither is willing to concede the spot to the next person. They're so invested in their unlikely success being entirely their own genius in the public's mind that they keep spiraling in public. Both have become laughably whiny.
Just to be clear, I'm not saying Elon is as dumb or useless or scammy as Trump. Dude has something. In addition to familial wealth, connections, and powerful friends. He just isn't as much of a visionary genius that he's convinced himself & the world that he is.
Gates or Buffett or Bezos didn't have public meltdowns when knocked off the richest person peak. But Elon knows he's going to get knocked off soon. That's the bigger picture. Not his free speech obsessions or whatever. It's all a big illusion most people play along with.
While the pundits and podcasts and LinkedIn posts churned out millions of words on how an Elon owned Twitter will be and free speech and moderation policies and Trump being restored and all that saucy stuff, I as well as Wall Street from day 1 went, lol, yeah right!
And the clearest objective evidence that "smart money" never thought Elon would actually buy Twitter, is the fact that the stock stayed well short of the offer price! Despite offering a 10% guaranteed return in a few months, if Elon's offer was serious.
Twitter was at about $40 before he started this drama. Which is the realistic price range for the stock. It's blindingly obvious that Twitter is never going to be an advertising juggernaut like Google or Meta. Elon pretending that he would privatize Twitter AND make more money?🙄
Not even his banks bought it, lol. Why they made him put up so much Tesla stock as collateral! And he himself didn't just buy it outright, despite being worth $250 billion. The market saw it and sat on the sidelines. Their silence was deafening.
From day 1, it was obvious to everyone that this was Elon trolling Twitter, doing his usual pump and dump, and most importantly, finding a face saving excuse to yet again liquidate billions in #TSLA. Though he keeps saying he'll be the last to sell.
Just like last time he pretended that he would let a Twitter poll decide if he should sell #TSLA, this time he pretended that he has no choice but to sell #TSLA to selflessly save Twitter from itself and champion true free speech or whatever shit he made up.
Now all the people who gushed "wah wah, Elonji will make Twitter great again" look like idiots while he coolly liquidated at least 8 bn (that we know of) of his company's stock and is now doing the usual Elon reversal.
Hehe, this has pretty much ended up an assortment of my class lecture snippets. The Elon one from last month. Many students this week are like "I wasn't fully sold on your analysis last month but it literally played out exactly like you said it would since then."

Nice ego boost.

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More from @gauravsabnis

May 20
Ah so this Business Insider report is the reason Musk started building the whole "leftists are after me" excuse.
Don't be surprised if Elon pretends he wants to buy Business Insider as well. Like Gavin Belson in Silicon Valley.
What Elon pretends he's playing vs what he's actually playing. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 19
An interesting contrast between my two countries.

In American high schools, the affluent kids come by themselves or are dropped off by parents, and cash strapped kids take the school bus.

In India, school buses are generally an affluent kid thing. Working class on their own.
Broadly speaking of course.
Yup, vans or even auto rickshaws, packed like sardines. Or braving deathly Indian traffic on bicycles.

School buses are the rich person thing. Just like the term "public school" means the exact opposite in the two countries.

Read 40 tweets
May 19
Can't believe I watched #YoungSheldon for 5 years always wondering if Iain Armitage is related to Richard Armitage, but never looking it up until now. Remember Dick Armitage? Iraq War enthusiast, outed Valerie Plame, consistent NeverTrumper?

Turns out he's the grandson!
I guess the best advice you can give aspiring young actors nowadays is to try to be born in a well connected family?
Even Lin Manuel Miranda, the inevitable EGOT, and doubtless talented guy, was helped immensely by coming from a connected family. Given how networking heavy the NYC-DC-Hollywood world is, it's not surprising I guess. Even Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, silver spoon kids.
Read 4 tweets
May 19
Goa does have some quality cannabis. 🤭
I'm going through the tweets and replies of the @GoaElectricity account and whoever runs it is like Peak Susegad 😂😂

So much cutting to the chase, so little punctuation. 🤭🤭
I'm officially obsessed with this official account now. There goes the day. 😂😂 ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 19
Indeed! The healing powers in boosting the haemoglobin in your blood is why its ancient capital was named Rakt-Jeevik! Corrupted by imperialists to Reykjavik.
Given the mindset of Indian public these days, I should make it explicit that I'm joking.
Also to put @smarimc's mind at ease cos there's a lot of Shivlings in Vestmannaeyjar 🤭
Read 7 tweets
May 19
Random political flashback. 2008 primary season when everyone was pretending that Fred Thompson was the next Reagan, he started driving a pickup truck. And he was so visibly miserable, lol. Cos he was a Hollywood Republican. 😂😂

He got bored and so did everyone else.
Of course in a Trump era, a Fred Thompson presidency doesn't sound all that absurd.
Fred Thompson for all his flaws, and may the bacteria keep him, did not seem like an unhinged cruel angry celebrity politician. I now yearn for the era when his candidacy being taken seriously was the level of absurdity in American politics.
Read 4 tweets

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