Thread by @sizov_andre

What’s wrong with inevitable global food crisis prophecies. THREAD:
#wheat #corn

* Blocked Ukrainian grain terminals are a key factor supporting record-high prices. That has been priced in already – the war started almost three months ago.
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* Ukraine is likely to decrease exports in 21/22 by 5 mmt of #wheat (and 12 mmt of #corn) compared to pre-war estimates
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* Other price drivers are worsening weather in Northern Hemisphere (US, EU) and export restrictions (India)
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* The war in Ukraine should be stopped and Ukrainian ports should be unblocked. Hopefully, we will see that in the next months, not years. But that’s the best-case scenario
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* The worst-case scenario or real “world grain war” is not blocked Ukrainian ports, it’s blocked ports AND Russian export restrictions
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* Russia is to export 41 mmt of wheat in 2022/23 accounting for 20% of total wheat trade, as per our estimate. The biggest supplier by far.
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* If Kremlin really wants “grain war” and restricts Russian wheat exports – will wheat prices triple or only double? Will we see food riots in Africa only or all-over Middle East too?
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* Do politicians talking about “grain war” really understand how global S&D looks like? Do they have a plan in case their prophecies of full-scale “grain war” become self-fulfilling? I’m afraid the answers are “no” and “no”

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