Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #wheat

Most recents (24)

For a whe now I've been pondering HOW to post about the #Russia-#Ukaine War and its global economic & Geopolitical implications.

Its not easy covering such a huge topic using twitter's 40 word limit. Crucial is "WHERE" and "WHEN" to start?

Where = the Middle East
When = 1973
It's 1973 and the young state of Israel was fighting the combined Armies of Egypt & Syria (the 4th Arab-Israeli War). Military aid from the USA however gave Israels the upper hand. Meanwhile, in Riyadh, 1500km south of Jerusalem, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia was worried. Faisal...
...didn't join other Arab states to attack Israel. But he couldn't stand idle while Israel wiped 2 Arab countries off the map. He was aware that the US the main supporter of Israel. So he & other Arab countries placed an Oil Embargo on the US & some of its allies.
It was a risky
Read 22 tweets
U.S. spring #wheat planting was near record slow as of Sunday at 73% complete, as wet weather has delayed top growers North Dakota & Minnesota. Spring wheat accounts for 32% of the full U.S. wheat crop, and last year's spring harvest was the smallest since 1988 due to drought.
North Dakota grows about half of the U.S. spring #wheat, but Minnesota, accounting for 14% of production, is planting at the slowest pace ever. Almost no wheat got planted in the state until last week. Still, it is uncertain just how many of MN's intended acres will get planted.
Only 29% of U.S. winter #wheat was in good/excellent health as of Sunday, the lowest for the week since 2006. Other years with similarly low ratings had terrible yields. However, the winter wheat problems have been known for some time now. Wasn't much room for spring crop errors.
Read 4 tweets
North Dakota is planting #corn & #soybeans at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant 🌽 and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn. Image
North Dakota grows 5% of U.S. #soybeans, a large portion of which get exported to China. Only 23% of ND's beans were planted by May 29 vs 86% last year. Final crop insurance planting date is June 10, but to complete planting, ND cannot have any more rainy episodes from here. Image
North Dakota's spring #wheat planting is no longer slowest ever (but it's close) at 59% complete by May 29. Final planting date is either May 31 or June 5, but 91% of ND's wheat should be planted by now. ND grows half of the country's protein-rich spring wheat. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14. Image
A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs. Image
U.S. planting progress and China/Brazil trade prospects weighed down the corn market Tuesday. U.S. corn planting is still historically slow, but not 2019, no-end-in-sight slow. China cleared Brazilian corn for import, causing concerns for US competitiveness into China.
Read 4 tweets
North Dakota grows half of the United States' protein-rich spring #wheat crop, and the state is planting at the slowest rate in history. With just 27% planted as of Sunday, the 2022 pace has fallen behind the prior slowest years of 1995 & 2011. Would normally be 80% done by now. Image
April was North Dakota's 2nd wettest in 128 years and 8th coldest, and on/off rains since then has not allowed fields to become properly fit for planting. Tractors can easily get stuck when it's this wet. And crops planted in saturated soils will have issues off the bat.
Through Sunday, North Dakota is having its 7th wettest May in 128 years - easy to see why planting is an issue. May is running about 31st coolest, coolest May since 2019. A little warmup is expected over the weekend but the first week of June is forecast to be cool.
Read 3 tweets
U.S. spring #wheat planting is advancing at the slowest pace in more than 20 years and was only 49% complete as of Sunday. Average for the date is 83%. Minnesota is only 11% planted vs 90% avg. North Dakota 27% vs 80% avg. Those two states grow two-thirds of the U.S. crop.
Just a reminder, this has to do with extremely wet spring weather in much of the Northern Plains. That area faced a bad drought last year, but too much rain in April and some rains/cool weather since then has kept farmers and their heavy equipment out of fields.
Update: U.S. spring #wheat planting progress at 49% complete as of May 22 is the SLOWEST in records back to 1981. Next slowest for the date is 1995, but 2011 is the slowest from late May forward.
Read 5 tweets
🧵We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving #Ukrainian #grains, #wheat and #agricultural products into the #European #Railway Network for distribution to EU #Export terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the #Danube Waterway.
Why, what's stopping this?

Similar to @Apple, @Microsoft or @Android Operating Systems, #Ukraine's and #Europe's #trains, #locomotives & #wagons operate on physically different track widths.

While having similar functionalities, they don't "play well with each other".
Specifically, a Ukrainian train cannot travel on a European railway (track) and European trains cannot travel on Ukrainian railways.

The width, called "Gauge", between rails is different. Ukrainian is 1520mm wide, while European is 1435mm.
Read 21 tweets
What’s wrong with inevitable global food crisis prophecies. THREAD:
#wheat #corn

* Blocked Ukrainian grain terminals are a key factor supporting record-high prices. That has been priced in already – the war started almost three months ago.
1/ Image
* Ukraine is likely to decrease exports in 21/22 by 5 mmt of #wheat (and 12 mmt of #corn) compared to pre-war estimates
* Other price drivers are worsening weather in Northern Hemisphere (US, EU) and export restrictions (India)
Read 8 tweets
#MCProOpinion: Banks’ results for the March quarter have been excellent, but operating profit growth has hit a soft patch. What can boost their profits in FY23? 🤔

Find out ⏬…

by @aparnaviyer02 | #Economy #Bank
#MCProOpinion: The Rupee can weaken further in the near term, but there is something that can save the day over the medium term.

Read at:…

#Rupee #Inflation
#MCProOpinion: The impact on the global economy due to China’s zero-COVID policy is just a preview of the disruptions ahead. And that will happen once the economic slowdown in China starts to bite.

Read at:…

by @SaibalDasgupta | #China #Economy #Lockdown
Read 5 tweets
I have been skeptical about whether Indian wheat would replace Ukrainian and Russian wheat on the export market, but wasn't expecting an all out ban. Here are the factors I think contributed to this (and that will probably get me in trouble)...
The specter of famine in India is high, despite there not being any major famines since India's Independence. But the British really did some terrible things. Therefore, the government doesn't want to gamble with the possibility of not enough supply.
Climate change: Wheat in India is currently experiencing what scientists call "terminal heat stress," which causes the grains to shrivel and lowers the yield.
Read 10 tweets
FOOD SECURITY: India prohibited wheat exports that the world was counting on to alleviate supply constraints sparked by the war in Ukraine, saying that the nation’s food security is under threat | #OATT #wheat 🇮🇳 🌾…
Before the export ban, India was expected to be one of the top-10 wheat exporters for the 2022-23 crop season. Removing all (or part of) India's expected wheat exports creates a massive hole in the global supply and demand. Wheat prices will rise further, and quickly #OATT
After the 2007-08 and 2010-11 food crisis, the G20 debated banning the use of food export restrictions, and reducing support to biofuels. But the communique was watered down, with China and the US joining forces (US on biofuels, China on exports bans)…
Read 3 tweets

Will Govt have enough wheat for Public Distribution System (NFSA), Midday Meals & other regular welfare schemes including Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana ?

Will Govt have enough wheat for open market sales to flour mills ?

Will we see #wheat #atta prices spike ? Image
With #wheat opening stocks of 19 million ton (MT) & expected procurement of 18.5 MT, Govt will have 37.5 MT of wheat available for 2022-23. We take out the Min buffer Stock for March 31, which is 7.5 MT, it will leave 30 MT available for sale from government godowns this fiscal.
Govt requires 26 million ton (MT) to run Public Distribution System, Midday Meals & other regular welfare schemes, 5.4 MT for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana scheme for April-Sept 2022; this alone comes to 31.4 MT, which is more than what the Govt will b holding this year
Read 5 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
Do we understand the food we eat? Know it, intimately? The few who do, are making ginormous profits from our ignorance. The state is complicit. We are oblivious.
Farmers sell #wheat for Rs21/kg while we buy packaged whole wheat flour @ Rs41/kg. So how is the food processing industry benefiting either farmers or consumers? What explains this wholesale-retail price wedge?
India's native oils like mustard, groundnut, sesame, coconut etc were sacrificed to push refined and 'pure' packaged oils. Which made us heavily import dependent; now oil prices hit the roof during events beyond our control. Who is minting this crisis?
Read 6 tweets

Can we export #wheat

There is 10~15% #wheat yield loss in Punjab, Haryana, UP & MP, due to weather anomalies; wheat to mustard acreage shift & farmers holding back crop & exports; Seems, Govt procurement target of 44 million tons will fall short by around 10 million tons
#Haryana has set a target of 85 lakh ton #wheat procurement, but in the first 17 days, State mandis have witnessed nearly 20% less wheat arrival compared to last year. #Punjab has a target of 130 lakh ton, but reliable sources say procurement would likely be around 100 lakh tons.
Govt position is that "India's new season #wheat harvest is underway, with this year's production at a record 111.32 million tons-making it the 6'th season in a row that India has produced a surplus. But, it seems nobody factored yield loss of 10~15% i.e. at least 11 million tons
Read 9 tweets
After speaking to farmers in several states, experts and industry insiders, my sense is that a #wheat crisis is imminent for India in the next 4-5 months, or earlier
The agri ministry is estimating a crop size of record 111 million tonnes, but actual production is likely to be at least 10% lower due to the March heatwave and also shift in acreage from wheat to mustard
India is aspiring to feed the world but might end up with egg on its face when domestic consumer prices rise sharply in near future; retail prices are already on the rise
Read 8 tweets
Thea coming intensification of economic #Crisis in Europe,
A thread:
#foodcrisis #Economics #EconomicCrisis #UkraineRussiaWar
Ukraine faces mass starvation: Kiev authorities deliberately disrupt the sowing campaign

The sowing campaign in Ukraine is on the verge of failure, the agrarians lack seeds and fuel. Only in Odessa region and maybe in the liberated regions of the country (Kherson region and
the south of Zaporozhye region) are fully sown.

In Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv oblasts there is fighting. Fields are mined, demining is not carried out.

In the Poltava region, fields are also mined, the sowing season has not begun.
In the west of Ukraine in
Read 9 tweets
An important #wheat thread:

The world grew a record wheat crop in 2021/22, but don’t let that deceive you when it comes to actual availability.

You must look at the projected year-end stocks and most critically, the expected demand relative to those stocks, also record high. Image
Global #wheat stocks-to-use in 2021/22 of 28.5% would be a six-year low. Excluding #China, that ratio falls to 16.6%, a 14-year low.

But most of the actual available global supplies lie in the major exporters. Stocks-to-use in those countries of 14% is close to all-time lows. Image
Why do we exclude #China? It will hold 51% of the world’s #wheat by mid-year. None of that wheat is available to the global market as it is stockpiled for food security.

Five straight bumper crops will allow #India’s exports to hit records this year. It too has gov't reserves. Image
Read 5 tweets
What is Asia buying from #Russia🇷🇺?

Reactions towards 🇷🇺’s WAR against #Ukraine🇺🇦🌻 have been mixed in the #AsiaPacific.

#Japan🇯🇵, #SouthKorea🇰🇷, #Singapore🇸🇬 & #Taiwan🇹🇼 have joined in the Western-led sanctions effort.

But the two global giants, #India🇮🇳 and #China🇨🇳 have refused to condemn 🇷🇺.

Asia is geographically far away from the conflict and suffering less economic turbulence than Europe, which has complex economic links to 🇷🇺 and is heavily reliant on its energy & raw materials. 2/
Some Asian countries, like #India🇮🇳, even benefit from the WAR🇷🇺 economically as it goes on buying crude oil🇷🇺 at discounted prices. India has also refused to condemn Russia – its biggest supplier of arms – and is still keeping trade ties intact.
Read 8 tweets
U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date Image
Don't be fooled by +22% YOY for #soybeans when it comes to Sept. 1 possibilities. 2nd half use in 20/21 was a 6yr low and 18% below the 5yr avg. Exports were extremely light for the period after the big effort in H1, and the remaining 21/22 book is much bigger than usual.
When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.
Read 6 tweets
@Potus announced that there will be #FoodShortages in the U.S., and the prices for food are rising all over the world, mostly due to the #RussianUkrainianWar. As shown in FAO data, this is not a new trend. 🧵
Both Russia and Ukraine are among the top 5 #wheat exporters, fueling fears that the crisis could exacerbate inflation pressure in the food aisle. Wheat futures rose to the highest level since 2008, building on top of a rally that had been going on since mid-2020.
After recovering from a coronavirus dip in early 2020, the global FAO Food Price Index has risen quite steadily, reaching a new all-time high of 140.7 point in February 2022.
Read 5 tweets
Commodity markets are reacting to uncertainty in agricultural supply by sending futures through the roof. Will the #UkraineRussiaWar be a challenge to #FoodSecurity in the short to medium term? The short answer is YES. The long answer is a read through this thread ⬇️🧵 1/
#UkraineRussiaWar is disrupting physical, logistical & market dynamics in the Black Sea - a key hub for wheat, feed grains & sunflower seed to world markets. 🇺🇦 ports are all closed or blockaded by 🇷🇺 Navy. 🇺🇦 suspended port operations for commercial activities since 24/02. 2/
Most immediately, this will impact export of 🇺🇦 #corn, which has been harvested but not all shipped. Exports are predicted to drop by 18% due to trade disruptions and part of the stored grain being lost or damaged from shelling. 🇺🇦 exports 14% of all corn, so prices will raise 3/
Read 16 tweets
🆕 Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in #Ukraine 🇺🇦:

#OECD calls for well targeted support to the vulnerable as war undermines global #recovery.

Read full press release⤵️ Image
Global economic #growth will be more than 1⃣ percentage point lower this year as a result of this #conflict.

#Inflation could be at least a further 2⃣.5⃣ percentage points higher on aggregate than it would otherwise have been.

👉🔎 Image
#OECD calls for greater #EU solidarity in providing help to 🇺🇦 refugees:

Already some 3⃣ million people have fled #Ukraine with more waves of refugees expected in the weeks ahead.

This is far higher than in wake of the recent Syrian refugee crisis. 👇… Image
Read 5 tweets

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