Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #corn

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What has happened in the Black Sea since last Monday - THREAD
#wheat #corn #oatt

* 10 vessels left Ukrainian terminals thanks to the grain deal, mainly #corn. The total volume of food products blocked in the terminals since late February was 0.6 MMT

* Wonder what the quality is after 5+ months on board…seems that the buyer of the first vessel Razoni with 26K of corn refused to accept the cargo

* First two vessels arrived in UA terminals: Fulmar S (13K deadweight) & Osprey S (20K)...this is more important than blocked vessels…if everything is OK we could see fresh demand +freight & insurance offers

Read 11 tweets
🇺🇸A brief history of U.S. #corn yield growth since the 1860s 🌽 Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example).
I didn't include all possible difference makers on the chart, just the top ones, but there are probably other things I could include. Anyone have suggestions?

This shows just how bad the 1988 & 2012 droughts were (you can also see 1983, 1993, etc in there).
The first chart makes trend yield look like it's just up up up. But let's zoom in. Look at the last several years. What's really the trend? To me, 181 for 2022 seemed too high (USDA's original "unofficial" before planting delays). Input greatly welcome here, it's been on my mind.
Read 4 tweets
1/ #Russia’s reasons to agree #grain deal and deblock ports in #Ukraine:
1. Exemptions from sanctions for Putin’s cronies banks and billions $ from food exports
2. Russia’s agricultural sector is crucially dependent on import

For @CarnegieEndow…
2/ Russia got $11bln from grain exports in 2021, $10 in 2010. It’s very important part of state revenues. This year a record harvest is expected (130 min tonnes), and correspondingly high profits. Beneficiaries of the largest agricultural holdings are close to the #Kremlin
3/ Dmitry Patrushev, the Minister of Agriculture, is the eldest son of the secretary of the Security Council. The owners of Demetra-Holding (second largest exporter of grain) are VTB and the Marathon Group of Alexander Vinokurov, son-in-law of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov etc
Read 7 tweets
1/The agreement brokered by Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to open up ports along the Gulf of #Odesa in the #BlackSea cannot work if Russia plans on attacking the ports in question.

There are many hurdles that need to be overcome for this to work.
2/First, the need for the grain is paramount. @unctad has made clear the vital importance of #grain, in particular #wheat, #sunflower, #corn & #barley for nations in Africa.

3/Myself and @johnkonrad was on @CavasShips Podcast to talk about this very topic last week.…
Read 9 tweets
What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 250722

As anticipated by #Proshare analysts, the MPC, on Tuesday, decided to extend its hawkish stance by raising the base rate by 100bp.

read more:…

#AskProshare #MarketUpdates

Nigeria Economy:

According to the Committee Chairman, @cenbank Governor #Emefiele, the unanimous decision to hike the rate was aimed at curtailing inflation and reducing the pace at which consumer purchasing power was being eroded by inflation.…

Global Economy:

For the first time in 11 years, @ecb on Thur. raised its benchmark deposit rate by 50 basis points to zero percent. The EU’s record high inflation (8.6% in June) forced the ECB to end its eight-year experiment with negative interest rates…
Read 15 tweets
North Dakota is planting #corn & #soybeans at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant 🌽 and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn. Image
North Dakota grows 5% of U.S. #soybeans, a large portion of which get exported to China. Only 23% of ND's beans were planted by May 29 vs 86% last year. Final crop insurance planting date is June 10, but to complete planting, ND cannot have any more rainy episodes from here. Image
North Dakota's spring #wheat planting is no longer slowest ever (but it's close) at 59% complete by May 29. Final planting date is either May 31 or June 5, but 91% of ND's wheat should be planted by now. ND grows half of the country's protein-rich spring wheat. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14. Image
A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs. Image
U.S. planting progress and China/Brazil trade prospects weighed down the corn market Tuesday. U.S. corn planting is still historically slow, but not 2019, no-end-in-sight slow. China cleared Brazilian corn for import, causing concerns for US competitiveness into China.
Read 4 tweets
#China has signed an agreement with #Brazil to allow imports of 🇧🇷 #corn, previously subject to phytosanitary restrictions.

These are Brazil's top customers. Iran, Egypt & Spain in particular overlap with Ukraine, China's usual go-to supplier. Japan and S Korea overlap w/ USA. Image
Those original 7 countries I showed account for 2/3 of #Brazil's annual #corn shipments. Taiwan also overlaps with USA, as does Mexico when adding some secondary Brazilian buyers.

Will be lots of secondary overlaps because countries that don't grow corn NEED corn! 🌽 Image
Here's a reminder of where USA, #Ukraine & #Argentina export #corn for comparison. Two USA charts: 1 shows recent buyers and then another shows buyers' shares pre-#China (China started buying US big in 2020). Argy chart is from USDA/FAS.

USA+BR+AR+UA = 85% of world corn exports ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
The Indiana #CropWatch22 #corn was planted May 19, the 9th of 11 total. North Dakota & Ohio plan on this week, but highly weather dependent. Drought this year in Kansas allowed it to be the only Crop Watch corn field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 added #soybeans in South Dakota, W Iowa and Ohio last week. Just North Dakota remains, and the potential timing is totally unknown yet. Things are day by day in ND right now, and the focus is on corn. W Illinois is the only bean field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 planting comparison w/ 2019. Only 3 of 8 #corn fields were planted earlier in 22 than 19. 6 of 8 #soybeans earlier in 22 than 19 (unsure if ND will make it 7 of 8). CW had 8 corn/8 soy fields in 2019; SD, W IA & W IL were added in 2021.
Read 4 tweets
What’s wrong with inevitable global food crisis prophecies. THREAD:
#wheat #corn

* Blocked Ukrainian grain terminals are a key factor supporting record-high prices. That has been priced in already – the war started almost three months ago.
1/ Image
* Ukraine is likely to decrease exports in 21/22 by 5 mmt of #wheat (and 12 mmt of #corn) compared to pre-war estimates
* Other price drivers are worsening weather in Northern Hemisphere (US, EU) and export restrictions (India)
Read 8 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
It's finally a beautiful evening to plant #corn in western Illinois. This is the last of four Illinois #CropWatch22 fields to be planted, and the 8th of 22 total.
It was a decent night to plant #corn in Minnesota Saturday night, though rain was forecast Sunday, so the #CropWatch22 corn was finished 4:30 am Sunday morning. The South Dakota corn also went late into the night Sat-Sun, finishing at 2 am. Needing to beat some weather.
Not the common early sight for #CropWatch22 this year, but the SE Illinois fields, both planted April 23, have emerged. This was the earlier stuff the producer planted this season - his planting is still in progress.
Read 4 tweets
🌽Global #corn export thread🌽

🇺🇸USA, 🇧🇷#Brazil, 🇦🇷#Argentina & 🇺🇦#Ukraine account for 85% of the world's corn exports. But who ships where?

🇺🇸Let's start in top exporter USA. China, Mexico & Japan were the destinations for 69% of all shipments last year. Image
🇺🇸USA only started shipping heavily to #China again in the last two years, so here is the 3-year average prior to that. Mexico, Japan & South Korea accounted for 58%. Image
🇧🇷Two-thirds of shipments out of No. 2 #corn exporter #Brazil end up in these seven countries: Iran, Japan, Egypt, Vietnam, Spain, South Korea & Taiwan. That has been true the past 3 years despite annual export volumes varying drastically based on the harvest outcomes. Image
Read 6 tweets
Soils are a bit too cold across Iowa right now for any widespread #corn planting. Soil temps as of Sunday were hovering around 40F, but 50F and above is most preferable to plant corn. Air temps will be chilly most of this week, but warmer weather is forecast this weekend. Image
Here's going back 4 years on the same date: ImageImageImageImage
I also want to include 2017 because it was among Iowa's warmest for the date. 2018 was notoriously cold and Iowa's corn planting lagged normal most of the spring. Corn planting in 2021 was ahead of average and efficient from the end of April on. Image
Read 5 tweets
U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date Image
Don't be fooled by +22% YOY for #soybeans when it comes to Sept. 1 possibilities. 2nd half use in 20/21 was a 6yr low and 18% below the 5yr avg. Exports were extremely light for the period after the big effort in H1, and the remaining 21/22 book is much bigger than usual.
When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.
Read 6 tweets
Commodity markets are reacting to uncertainty in agricultural supply by sending futures through the roof. Will the #UkraineRussiaWar be a challenge to #FoodSecurity in the short to medium term? The short answer is YES. The long answer is a read through this thread ⬇️🧵 1/
#UkraineRussiaWar is disrupting physical, logistical & market dynamics in the Black Sea - a key hub for wheat, feed grains & sunflower seed to world markets. 🇺🇦 ports are all closed or blockaded by 🇷🇺 Navy. 🇺🇦 suspended port operations for commercial activities since 24/02. 2/
Most immediately, this will impact export of 🇺🇦 #corn, which has been harvested but not all shipped. Exports are predicted to drop by 18% due to trade disruptions and part of the stored grain being lost or damaged from shelling. 🇺🇦 exports 14% of all corn, so prices will raise 3/
Read 16 tweets
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets
#UkraineKonflikt ?

For those who ask:
“Why does Ukraine matter? “

How the nation of #Ukraine ranks:

1st in #Europe in proven recoverable reserves of #uranium ores;

2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of #titanium ore reserves;

1/1 Image
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of #manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);

2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);

2nd place in Europe in terms of #mercury ore reserves;

3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale #gas reserves
(22 trillion cubic meters)

4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in #coal reserves
(33.9 billion tons)

Read 11 tweets
Why #Ukraine 🇺🇦 matters to #EU, #US, #UK, #Canada, the world thread 🧵↓

© Olena Karpenko Image
This is #Ukraine 🇺🇦 pictured on top of a map of #Europe. It's the biggest European country, bigger than France. Donbass' territories occupied by Russia are as big as Switzerland.

What is happening now is not a small local conflict, but a hazard for the whole world.

Why does #Ukraine 🇺🇦 matter?

✅ 1ˢᵗ in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
✅ 2ⁿᵈ place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;

Read 15 tweets
Brazil #soybean thread:

Sharing an email I wrote to a client this morning replying to a question about the situation in 🇧🇷

Just some more “factual perspective” about what is really happening with the bean crop in 🇧🇷, read on 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
1/7) “Brazilian farmer is selling on the rally, even more so as their harvest approaches.

FWIW however, focus should probably not be on farmer selling as they will absolutely sell more than enough for another potential export record Jan-Dec ‘22.
2/7) Crop is huge, especially on a horizontal line above Northern Paraná. When I say huge, I mean HUGE, multiple clients sending videos/pictures and estimating 80-90 bpa expectations.

Of course I’m not saying those are statewide/region wide averages… but crop is indeed huge.
Read 8 tweets
Thread 1/7)

Here’s the real scoop on southern Brazil drought & potential impacts on #soybeans #corn prod & exports…

✔️ yes, parts of RS & PR (2nd & 3rd largest #soybean producers) are dry w/ less than 1” (25mm) since late Nov

✔️ Southern tip of MS & W. SC also on drier side

✔️ Rains of 25-50mm were expected for Paraná this week, so far very disappointing & not much on the forecast for next 10-14 days

✔️ On the other hand, parts of MS & RS received some nice rains last night and today, bringing some much needed temporary relief

✔️ Rains are expected to return to southern 🇧🇷, as well as 🇵🇾 & Central-North 🇦🇷 by the 1st week of Jan ‘22, however that is too far out to have much confidence

✔️ IF rains do return, the drought effects for southern 🇧🇷 will be contained & minimal on a general scale
Read 7 tweets
At the top of the hour--

farmdoc webinar:

* "#Illinois #Farm Economic Summit 2021- - - 2021/22 Market Outlook for #Corn and #Soybeans."

* Presenters: @ScottIrwinUI and @JosephJanzen.

* Register here:
Daily March 2022 #Corn Futures Prices, June 1, 2020 - November 19, 2021
Daily March 2022 #Soybean Futures Prices, June 1, 2020 - November 19, 2021
Read 25 tweets
1/ "#Brazil Starts Planting Grain Crop with Forecast of a New Record," by Joana Colussi

#Farmers in Brazil began planting in September for what is expected to be a recording-breaking 2021-2022 harvest.
2/ The first projection from CONAB (National Supply Company in Brazil) projects farmers will produce 289.6 million tons of soybeans, corn, cotton, rice, and beans – accounting for nearly 95% of the total grain produced in #Brazil.
3/ About 99 million acres are expected to be devoted to #soybeans, and about 51 million acres to #corn, both records.
Read 4 tweets

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