“We want to see a strategic defeat of Russia,” U.S. NATO Ambassador @Julie_C_Smith tells #Strategic_Ark in Warsaw. “We want to see Russia leave #Ukraine.”
On Indo-Pacific and Ukraine: “we can address both of these challenges and threats.”
Focus now is on Ukraine, but the US “can walk and chew gum at the same time.”
Expect news on NATO force posture for mid- long-term at Madrid summit. NATO-Russia founding act (which forbade permanent bases in new alliance member states) is not a factor in that discussion, Smith said.
“Russia’s actions have fundamentally upset the order.”
“NATO unity is rock solid and will remain so.”
On Turkey re Sweden/Finland: “I’m entirely confident we’ll work through it.”
“We fundamentally want to allow Ukraine to figure out how it wants to end this war.”
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Given the fog of war surrounding what Olaf Scholz said when over the past few months re Ukraine, I thought a timeline of his statements might be useful. On the key questions of arms deliveries, sanctions and the terms for peace, he has been all over the map 🧵
Feb. 6 Before traveling to US for meeting with Biden, Scholz says that Germany “has for years pursued a clear policy of not delivering arms to crisis regions and that includes not sending lethal weapons to Ukraine..that was correct and it remains so.”
Feb. 15, 2022: At Kremlin press conference with Putin, Scholz refers to Nord Stream 2 as a “private commercial project” and pushes Ukraine to embrace Minsk and “Steinmeier formula”
Important sentiment, which underscores the degree to which the USA remains the linchpin of European security. Though no one in the region ever really trusted the French or Germans, their handling of Ukraine has erased any lingering doubt that they could be relied on. 1/3
The flipside of this is that the US will (and should) reconsider its own commitments to Europe. If Biden loses the next election that could happen sooner than people think. 2/3
Zeitenwende or not, nothing in below has really changed or is likely to if you listen closely to the domestic debate. 3/3
Observing Berlin’s debate from the outside, one could be forgiven for thinking the entire war is about Germany and its struggle to find its moral compass. 🧵
A current German obsession revolves around the question of whether it could be considered an active participant in the war under international law if it trains Ukrainian soldiers how to use the heavy weaponry it plans to provide.
In March, the research unit of the Bundestag (for many the gold standard of non-partisan analysis) opined that training Ukrainian would indeed be a bridge too far. Given Putin’s slavish adherence to international norms, this is clearly a key question.
Extraordinary interview with Merkel‘s chief economy adviser Röller, which is all the more revealing if you know that it‘s one of the “authorized“ interviews common in Germany, in which the interviewee is permitted to edit his answers…1/6 handelsblatt.com/politik/deutsc…
Merkel’s advisers didn’t speak publicly while she was in office, but in recent weeks a kind of cockfight has broken out over who is really to blame for her disastrous Russia policy. 2/6
The Süddeutsche Zeitung recently pointed the finger at Röller, saying he convinced Merkel to embrace Nord Stream 2 against the resistance of her chief foreign policy adviser Christoph Heusgen (wonder who the source for that was ;) 3/6 sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artik…
Amid the excitement over Germany's #Zeitenwende, it's worth stopping to remember how we got here, esp. how Ukraine got here. Today we profiled Ukraine's ambassador to Germany @MelnykAndrij, whose entreaties for Berlin to help his country defend itself 1/7 politico.eu/article/for-uk…
were met for years with a mix of with open mockery and derision. Top German politicians, led by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a Schröder crony who as foreign minister was a driving force behind the failed Minsk accords, repeatedly complained to Melnyk's..2/7
superiors in Kyiv about his outspoken advocacy for arms sales and more public support. But Berlin wanted to be left alone to build Nord Stream 2 and pursue a "new Ostpolitik" with Russia. 3/7
Few random observations from Berlin on German reaction to the Russian invasion of #Ukraine...🧵1 #UkraineUnderAttack
This being Germany, there's plenty of fingerprinting going on, with the usual suspects (the US and NATO) being blamed for offending the precious Russian soul by expanding the alliance eastward. (Never mind that it was a German idea to begin with). 2
German radio put a "peace researcher" on the air last night who lamented that the West hadn't done enough to engage Putin over the years. One woman called in to plead that Ukrainians all go onto the streets and surrender so no one else gets killed (on either side). 3