1/5 Ukraine and the world are looking for ways to export grain from the country. It used to be shipped by sea but now russia is blocking all Ukrainian ports. Without Ukrainian grain, world faces hunger in near future.
2/5 russia stole some of 🇺🇦 grain, tried to sell it to Egypt & other Arabic countries. They rightfully refused to buy it.
Now Ukraine has enough grain stored to feed 300 million people for a year. This needs to be exported soon there will be nowhere to store the new harvest.
3/5 It is difficult to export grain through Poland due to differences in railroad width, all cargo cars would need to be updated, this is a long, difficult and expensive process - not for the present situation.
4/5 UN is looking for solution with 🇺🇦. Some possible options:
- exports by sea (🇷🇺 wants some sanctions lifted then)
- by rail through Belarus to Lithuania (also to lift sanctions temporarily). This will export only about 10% of grain currently in Ukraine but at least a start.
5/5 If belarus agrees to allow transit of Ukrainian grain to Lithuania, it might mean that lukashenko is seriously reconsidering his alliance with putin.
1/4Yesterday 🇷🇺 announced that #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would be rerouted to supply energy to russia, and Ukraine could buy energy from it if we wanted. #UkraineUnderAttack
2/4 This power plant is largest in Europe, and supplies 20% of Ukrainian electricity. Russia's statements are a continuation of energy war.
3/4 Ukrenergo, regulating body in this area, replied that:
- The plant is in 🇺🇦 network and under control of 🇺🇦 specialists.
- UA energy system doesn't have physical connection with RU energy system, so no electricity supplies over there are physically possible at the moment
1/4 🧵Putin is not ready for negotiations. The only way to end this - is the 🇷🇺 army defeat. As for when they will be ready to accept it - I think, we need a few more months. #UkraineUnderAttaсk
2/4 Every week the desire to support the "special operation" among russians is going down. No one wants to die for Putin's insane ideas. The rupture in perception among the russians will come in July-August when the number of dead 🇷🇺 troops exceeds 50,000.
3/4 Sanctions against 🇷🇺 must get stronger. One of the ideas - to sanction Yedinaya Rossia (United Russia) members, recognize the party a criminal organization & ban all of its 144 members [in 🇷🇺Duma] from entering civilized world.
1. Ukraine must win but Ukraine should define the contours of this victory, not the US. Government and people should decide which outcome of war they wll accept. We will support this decision.
2. We always acknowedged Crimea as Ukraine. But the decision to liberate occupied territories, including Crimea, lies with Ukraine. We want Ukraine to win this war.
Some thoughts from an article "Why russia Will Lose the War" by Oleksander Shcherba @olex_scherba, Chief Advisor to Naftogaz CEO, diplomat.
1. putin has been preparing for this war for years. He wanted to make conquering Ukraine his main triumph. He amassed capital, raised hatred and chauvinism in russians and built up beliefs that Ukraine is waiting to be conquered.
2. When russians saw that Ukraine didn't want to be "liberated" and would put up a fight, they became disappointed and furious. This is why Bucha massacre happened, among many others.
1. "It will be difficult for Ukrainian economy to withstand a long war," - Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko.
Ukrainian GDP will shrink by almost half in 2022, by current estimates. We need about $5 billion each month to sustain expenses - supplied by other countries.
2. If war lasts more than another three or four months, very painful measures will need to be taken (drastic tax increases, spending cuts, maybe a wave of nationalization). This will undermine all the progress Ukraine has achieved in recent years in modernizing its economy.
3. There is a huge problem with transportation of crops. Ports are blocked, railroads and trucks cannot manage such a large amount for transportation. Each EU country must allow free access of UA trucks onto their territory or food shortages will become reality.