Thread by @DavidHarrisAJC

Putin’s image as a strategist has been shattered.

In this thread, I identify 10 things he got wrong in his barbaric invasion of #Ukraine.

#1 #Putin thought attacking Ukraine would be a cakewalk. A few days at most. As 3 months approach, he’s far closer to defeat than victory.

#2 Putin believed Ukraine was divided — and that he could exploit the divisions to rally some Ukrainians to his side. Wrong. His invasion united Ukraine and strengthened national identity big-time. Hatred for Russia has grown exponentially across Ukraine.

#3 Putin viewed Ukrainian President Zelensky as a lightweight. With a background as an actor & comedian, how could he possibly lead a country at war? Not only has Zelensky done just that, but he’s the world’s most admired leader today & is being compared to Winston Churchill.

#4 Putin assumed the Russian army was invincible, highly motivated & well-armed. Not so fast. Sure, in sheer size & number of weapons, the Russian military is imposing. But it’s not 12-feet tall, it turns out. Outdated doctrine. Questionable motivation. Erratic weaponry.

#5 Putin was convinced he could sell “denazification” as a rationale for the invasion of Ukraine. No one bought it. Totally absurd, all the more so with a democratically-elected Jewish president leading Ukraine. In fact, it’s Russia, not Ukraine, that needs denazification today.

#6 Putin thought the world would quickly lose interest in this invasion, just as it did after his invasion of parts of Georgia in 2008 & Ukraine in 2014. But this time turned out to be different. He made the world grasp the defining stakes involved. No one’s losing any interest.

#7 Putin assumed the US was too divided & distracted to lead a global campaign against Russia’s invasion. He certainly miscalculated. He managed to unite a majority of Democrats & Republicans to stand w/ Ukraine in just about every way possible — strategic, economic, diplomatic.

#8 Putin minimized NATO, perhaps choosing to believe it was a paper tiger. Instead, NATO has responded by enhancing its strength, coordination & mission. And, lo and behold, Finland & Sweden, long outside NATO, now want in. Who will be next?

#9 Putin counted on the supporters his regime had been cultivating for years in Europe (& elsewhere). Surely, they’d stand up for him & keep Europe on the sidelines. No way. They’ve been discredited, while Europe aligns w/ Ukraine, sends arms & financial aid, & sanctions Russia.

#10 Putin was surely persuaded Europe’s energy dependence on Russian oil/gas would be a determining factor in the European reaction. After all, how could countries like Germany manage w/out Russian energy? Not easy, to be sure, but they’re figuring it out, leaving Russia behind.