Thread by @busanga

This has immense effect. #ElectoralActDebacle

https://twitter.com/imranmuhdz/status/1527881072440184834

I remember the parties using the passing of this Act as a hammer to beat up on the President. The man signed it and now they have in it errors that exclude themselves from the delegate game. Who is the blame? 🤦🏿🤣#ElectoralActDebacle

Even when they made constitutional errors for self interest, by requiring appointees to resign (I support the notion morally, but cannot usurp the constitution) and the President asked for amendment they snubbed him. Now they’re stuck. LOL #ElectoralActDebacle

Now the real electoral implications of the absence of statutory delegates is on 3 or 4 levels. First, numerically - aspirants have far less folks to woo to win the nomination. For APC it goes down from 7800 to just 2,340. For PDP from 3,700 to 800. Money is now less of a factor.

#ElectoralActDebacle the implication of 800 vs 3700 delegates for an Atiku vs Wike vs Peter Obi, favors PO and makes Wike lot more influential. In PDP, Atiku is counting on his statutory to win it for him. Wike as financier of many states have adhoc more within grasp.

In APC, with lot less delegates - the two money bags in the race -BAT & Amaechi- have far less influence, as adhocs being fewer will have more competitive audience across more candidates.#ElectoralActDebacle

In the APC there is also cross-regional impact. Northern Adhocs are more Governor hence PMB controlled while South are more Chieftains from LGAs that never had electoral history. Hence, If North goes with Guvs, PMB is more important as they listen to him. #ElectoralActDebacle

The implication of this is that the North chooses the Presidential Candidate for APC with a divided southern elite delegate list. It also means PMB achieves two goals he has stated: reduce money bag influence at primaries & help PDP pick weak candidate. #ElectoralActDebacle

Which brings us to the second impact of the likelihood of PMB not signing the amendment which is now a real possibility - while the overall geopolitical balance of delegates within APC will not change widely, the implications at state level is more dramatic. #ElectoralActDebacle

Lets look at the numbers- before and After (add 6 FCT councils)

NW - 24.66/23.84 %
SW - 20.10/17.56 %
SS - 11.88/15.77%
NC - 16.38/15.51%
NE - 15.54/14.36%
SE- 10.74/12.18%

All zones lose % except SE and SS - the biggest gainer.

#ElectoralActDebacle

The implication even at regional level is that the establishment party candidates who had “structure” will be less advantaged if PMB fails to sign the amendment. SE and SS will matter more and PMB’s VP seem stronger there than even home candidates. Hmm.. #ElectoralActDebacle

Investigating the numbers beyond regions to states even have more dramatic implications. Lagos with 20 LGAs will have far less delegates than Oyo with 33 LGAs and almost same as Ekiti with 16 LGAs. Those banking on big statutory delegate states need rethink. #ElectoralActDebacle

Again, the implication of this implication is that PMB can choose - by refusing to sign the amendment. By shutting out other statutory delegates while having influence over wider spread adhoc votes, he can anoint a successor as super delegate of ONE. #ElectoraActDebacle

Why would PMB reduce his own influence on who succeeds him by agreeing with an egocentric legislature responding to personal interest and whims of a few godfathers to craft a bespoke law that favours their masters? I don’t see it. But anything can happen. #ElectoralActDebacle

For the PDP, imagine now that all LGAs are equal. The adhocs in PDP being in opposition were results of contested congresses/selection where Wike played active role especially in the North, while in South idealistic delegates that will support PO are likely. #ElectoralActDebacle

If I’m Atiku, I’m having sleepless nights right now that a Wike and Peter Obi can cut a convenience deal to exclude me at the floor of a consolidated convention. With millions of Intel sales money at risk, the bet against the newbies may be a bad one. #ElectoralActDebacle

The combined effect of Implication 1 and 2 produces Implication 3: Electability more than Loyalty will matter more when the chips are down. The battle for delegates’ secret ballots will be won in their head not the heart or pocket- in both parties, this time. #ElectoralActDebacle

Elections are won with Structure, Strategy & Sentiments - the party gives structure, strategy is a given & sentiment is 20% that moves 80% - Pareto Principle. The delegates will be looking at various sentiments including geopolitical & religious balance. #ElectoralActDebacle

Why? Because no party wants to lose. If @OfficialPDPNig flies a Northern candidate, it is likely to get 2011 Map in reverse or even worse, if @OfficialAPCNg selects a popular Christian southerner who chooses a strong Moslem Northerner. PDP will be shut out of the game. Fact.

Furthermore, if @OfficialAPCNg chooses a southern Moslem, it imperils its northern Vice President’s choice with a Northern Moslem Chairman already, and exposes itself to serious dilemma that gives the PDP a chance if it course corrects. Sentiments are real. #ElectoralActDebacle

Now to fourth and most dramatic implication…the choice of the President not to sign actually is likely to be better for democracy in the long run. Why? It separates the voting delegates from the enforcing delegates. Adhocs will votes, statutory who are big wigs will lobby. 🤣

Adhoc delegates will become hands of choice with strong statutory police - in party officials, current and past elected officers - who are more likely to have incoherent choices that will however reflect the popular choice as well as sentiments that will drive a general election.

Like no other period,fewer people who will be answerable to multiple layers of influence will be subjected to immense pressure by elites and majority of Nigerians in both parties for the next few days to choose the next President, & then vote their conscience #ElectoralActDebacle

Hope you enjoyed the thread. Lets watch the wire for what PMB does in the next 24 hours. If he doesn’t sign, now you know the implications. Baba always proves to be the ultimate ambusher. Always underestimated. #ElectoralActDebacle

Updates: There has been several specious news item saying the President have signed the amendment quoting a member of the House of Rep. None Carries an official conveyance. Safe to say you can’t believe anything until announced by the Villa.

He is the super delegate.

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