Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW38 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover GW38 at length:

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In this latest video, I share my own team and transfers for GW38: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/watch-bakars-f…

Q: In this section, I share what in my opinion is the FH draft for GW38.

If I was Free Hitting this week, I'd go with something like this:

Alisson
Trent Alonso James Cancelo Sessegnon
Mount Son (c) Maddison
Toney Kane

You can argue that opting for a five at the back formation in a week which is historically high scoring is questionable but I think the gulf in class between the respective teams and their opponents is such that I wouldn’t want to ignore them just on the basis of past...

... precedent. I expect comfortable wins for Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and City this week. One assist and a clean sheet gets you a 12 pointer just like that!

I’m aware that both James and Alonso in particular are at risk of rotation – but this squad allows you to be in a...

... position to afford decent first and second subs in case either of them miss out. I’d get Saka and Nketiah as the subs to cover for the Chelsea wing-backs – their ceiling if they play is absolutely mental so I don’t mind the risk of rotation...

... In the unlikely scenario that we get news that Kane/Sessegnon are missing out, I’d bring Robertson/Manè in as their replacements.

Q: What is the best way to defend a lead?

In this case, just choose the obvious captain and don’t do anything different – just be as template as it gets. Son will comfortably be the most popular captain this week with an effective ownership of over 150% in the upper echelons...

... of FPL managers.

He's the obvious captain on paper too - he's chasing the Golden Boot and playing against a Norwich side that have conceded the highest number of chances from his flank in the division this season...

... If you’re looking to consolidate rank, there is no reason to bet against him.

Q: How much to attack if chasing a deficit of 10 points or below?

I’m aware that it is the point in the season where it is make or break in most mini leagues so this calls for educated gambles to be made. I don’t think you need to be different just for the sake...

... of being different though. I consider a margin of 10 or fewer points to be minimal and one that can easily be made up. With this kind of margin, you should pick the obvious captain who I believe is Son.

Q: What is the best way to overcome a deficit of over 10 points?

Double up on defences which your rivals don’t own if you can do so without ignoring priority transfers. Invest in low owned differentials. If the deficit is too huge, then ideally captain...

... a player that your rival doesn’t own. Take the chance that he might haul big. Roll the dice!

Q: Who are the best differentials to own this GW?

I’d like to run you through three differentials, one in each position, all of whom I really like this week:

1) Ryan Sessegnon: Sessegnon has only blanked once in the previous five appearances and was hugely unlucky not to...

... have registered an attacking return against Burnley last week - he created four chances (including two big ones) and registered 11 penalty area touches. He also had the highest number of touches in the final third in the game. Conte's wing-backs have historically been...

...very attacking and Sessegnon is just another example of that recording an impressive xGi per 90 over the times he has played.

I think there's definitely haul potential in this fixture v Norwich - Norwich have created the fewest big chances this season while Spurs...

... are ranked best for big chances conceded since Conte has taken over. Further, Norwich have conceded the highest number of chances from his flank in the division this season which should bode well for Sessegnon.

Just a word of caution though - there's a...

... slight rumor that Sessegnon has caught a stomach virus as well. Wait for some team news tomorrow before making your transfer! We should have a fair idea of who has travelled at the very least.

2) Ivan Toney: Even though his ownership stands at 17.2%, I think it would be unfair to call Toney anything but a differential at the moment. A more accurate reflection of his actual ownership would be his ownership in the top 10k – which stands at a negligible 1.27% as of now...

... I really like the Leeds fixture for Toney - Leeds are ranked 20th for big chances conceded this season and have conceded the highest number of chances down the middle in the league as well. This fixture screams peak Toney territory to me. Needless to say, he is on...

... penalties too.

Brentford's own attacking underlying numbers have been really impressive in recent times too - in fact, they are ranked fourth for big chances in the division since Eriksen has started playing regularly. He's had a massive influence and has been...

... integral to Brentford's creativity ever since he has joined.

The bookmakers really like Toney as an option too - they have given him a healthy 51% chance of scoring this week.

3) Sadio Mané: Playing for one of the best attacks in the league, Mane is as good as it gets when you're talking about explosive differentials on the last day of the season. He's completely nailed to start having been rested against Southampton and is highly likely to play...

... 90 minutes as well. Mane has been playing as a central forward in recent weeks and seems like that kind of player who has brace potential in him every single time you watch him play.

Statistically, the fixture is in his favor. Wolves are ranked 19th for xG conceded...

... in the previous six matches - and that is despite having played the likes of Burnley, Brighton and Norwich in that spell. They are practically on the beach with nothing to play for.

Historically, Mane has done really well at the end of the season as well. In his previous...

... three GW38 appearances, Mane has scored five goals (four of which were against Wolves!) and averages over 12 FPL points per game. If you're chasing a mini league or looking to make up big ground in no time, then I'd even go as far as to say that Mane is an excellent option...

... as a differential captain.

According to the bookmakers, Liverpool are the favorites to score over 2.5 goals this week with Mane given a 52% probability of scoring.

Q: Who are the best three differential captains?

I’ve already covered Mane. I think Vardy is an excellent shout too – him against Southampton’s high line is a match made in heaven. No team has conceded more big chances than Southampton this calendar year so everything is...

... pointing to a Vardy haul. I also like the option of going Havertz/Lukaku too but only if we get some concrete news before the deadline that either of them is starting.

Q: Keep/sell Salah?

With just one GW left in the season, is it worth holding on to him given the risk that he can cameo? Probably not if we don't get any concrete news that he is starting. There’s also the risk that if he starts, you can’t rule out an early substitution...

... I think I’d keep Salah if he is starting and if (a) you already have Son or (b) a realistic route to buy Son. If you don’t have any other route to Son, I’d sell Salah even if he is starting.

Q: KDB to Son?

KDB could very well haul but Son’s ceiling is much higher. I’d sell.

Q: What to do with Richarlison, Ings, Watkins and Coutinho?

I’d sell all four of them if you have them in the starting 11 – Villa’s assets as their fixture is incredibly tough and Richarlison as I believe his ceiling is limited. Everton have little to play for now that their...

... safety is secured. I was scouring through their fan forums and the majority of fans expect a rotated side against Arsenal. They want a lot of their reserves to be given a chance. That doesn't fill me with confidence – even if Richarlison does start, he could very well be...

... playing with a weakened team.

I don’t mind taking hits to sell each one of them if you are being forced to play them. I’d sell Richarlison/Watkins/Ings for Toney for reasons I have already pointed out above. Coutinho I’d sell for a well-rested Mason Mount:

Mason Mount v the bottom 3 in the PL this season:

Goals: 7
Assists: 4
FPL points per game: 13.6

Mason Mount v the rest:

Goals: 4
Assists: 7
FPL points per game: 4.7

Mount has 11 attacking returns in five games against the bottom three this season. He is yet to blank in a game against them – the fixture against Watford presents another opportunity for him to stat-pad.

Q: Alonso and James – buy or not?

I think both fall into the don’t buy, don’t sell category. They have huge potential but I’m not sure if they are worth buying – especially considering the fact that most FPL managers have a weak bench this week with Everton/Villa assets.

Q: What to do with Arsenal assets?

It's a tricky call to make whether to hold/sell Arsenal assets given their recent slump in form. I think I'd still back them in GW38 as it's their final home game of the season and because I believe Everton will field a rotated side with...

... little to play for. Both Saka and Nketiah I believe have good potential as I expect it to be an open game.

Q: What to do with Foden?

I’d keep Foden. City have so much at stake and Foden is expected to start according to most City fans and journalists I have come across. He is a great differential to own.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already Mane and Nketiah in my thread. I have selected Emerson over Sessegnon as Emerson has an easier target. Barnes and Zaha both have favorable fixtures on paper and have the explosive potential to reach their points target.

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can. A big thank you for following my work this season! If you would like to show your support, you can follow me on Instagram:

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