Thread by @CoppetainPU

It’s been clear for some time that WTO members are unlikely to agree on anything substantial on agriculture—despite declaring it a priority—when their ministers meet in Geneva Jun 12–15

Information from trade sources on a meeting last Thu May 19 reinforce that assessment🧵

1/11

The focus has changed in recent months—the Ukraine war has increased concerns about food security.

But the best binding decision that can be expected is to exempt the World Food Programme’s humanitarian purchases from export restrictions—still opposed by India & Tanzania.

2/11

Expect some non-binding/“best-endeavour” statement on food security, eg, the UK-led proposal⬇️, which draws on familiar themes of keeping supplies flowing, increasing transparency, minimising market disruption.

Even transparency is a problem…

3/11 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

…Some developing countries say notifying export restrictions is already a burden.

India has not (yet) notified its recent export restriction on wheat. In last week’s meeting it defended the ban and complained about “naming and shaming”.

4/11 agims.wto.org/en/SearchNotif…

This is what the talks’ chair Gloria Abraham Peralta (Costa Rica’s ambassador) has proposed on exempting the World Food Programme, and more generally on export restrictions.

5/n tradebetablog.wordpress.com/ag-draft-nov-2…

The main purpose of the WTO agriculture talks is to continue reforming internationally-agreed rules for govts’ farm trade policy—export subsidies (now banned but work continues on hidden subsidies), domestic support, market access.

Here: no movement

6/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/01/25/wto…

WTO Director-General @NOIweala has intervened—reviving “Green Room” meetings (explained⬇️) on preparations for the Ministerial Conference (#MC12)

The focus was on:
• a food security declaration
• work programmes on all other agriculture subjects

7/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…

In last week’s informal agriculture negotiations meeting, Argentina, Mexico, NZ and Paraguay (all active participants in the talks) complained about not being invited to the “Green Room” meetings, sources say.

Green Room = director-general’s meeting room. Holds about 20.

8/11

Overall, the aims written into the work programmes may be toned down in order to secure agreement at the Ministerial Conference, sources say. (Essentially that kicks detailed aims down the road)

Full details of what’s on the table are here⬇️

9/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/12/09/new…

Biggest problem: domestic support in developing countries’ food security stocks (holding stocks as such is NOT a problem).

Canada etc revised their analysis of the use of stockholding with/without purchases at govt-set prices (= domestic support)

10/11 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

The G33 (original proponents) and African Group said they are modifying the proposal for a permanent solution. They have only days to produce a new text and persuade the rest of the membership to accept it at the Ministerial Conference.

11/11 Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/08/24/rhe…