Thread by @ed_fin

@kuppy is back in tankers.
🧵
"I think there is more [upside] to be had there. No new supply coming, or negligible, low inventories for refined product around the world, Russia is not supplying refined product, it has to come from further away, it's coming from the MEG, the USG"

"It's leading to much longer voyages [ie more tonne-miles] and also you're having a lot of inter-basin arbitrage. Clean rates, especially on MR's, have gone to decade highs. I think they're gonna stay here for a while, because there's really no deliveries expected for 2023,"

"2022-23 are in the bag in terms of what orderbook looks like. So unless they start ordering, and even then it's [20]24 before new supply comes, meanwhile refined product inventories keep drawing down every month, people start scrambling for inventory."

"We had a diesel panic on the US coast, the East Coast ran out of diesel effectively; you have these situations where people panic and they pay a lot for vessels because they need it. I think the clean tankers can do well. I don't own any $STNG, but I own a lot of $TRMD."

"I've basically doubled my money in 2 months [via $TRMD]. I think it's going to keep going."

"The question with #drybulk is what you think the global economy does. If you think the Fed keeps tightening, and blows everything up, you don't want to own that"

$GOGL $SHIP $SBLK

"If you think the Fed takes a pause pretty soon [this is Kuppy's view], and the Chinese reopen, then [dry bulk] is going to keep doing well. All the bottlenecks have been great for containers, those guys are still printing money. The box companies like $TRTN are doing amazing,"

"The only thing that's not working is the really large dirty tankers. You still have some deliveries expected, and OPEC can't hit their numbers. So there's not a lot of seaborne transport. But I think that's going to resolve itself soon as well."

"Because you have new environmental mandates, and I think it's going to obsolete some vessels, and there will be a bit of scrapping, and I think it'll heal itself pretty soon. Even the dirty [tankers] will do well. That's probably a 2023 story, not a 2022 story."

"If you look at what's happening with $FRO, $EURN and $INSW, are doing this 3-way merger, I think consolidation is very good for pricing, and John Frederiksen has a long history of making money. I have a funny feeling it's going to be good for the whole ecosystem."

This was taken from a discussion on @TheMarketHuddle which dropped this weekend. Relevant to $STNG $ASC $TRMD $PXS $DIS.MI