Faisal Islam Profile picture
May 23 6 tweets 2 min read
NEW:

BBC exclusive interview with Ukraine’s First Deputy PM Yulia Svyrydenko:

Calls for international community to secure “safe passage” for food export vessels in a “corridor” out of Odessa, to help Ukraine and avoid world hunger

… /1
NEW /2
Ukraine DPM:
“it would take us 5,6,7 years to export all these agricultural yields by [rail/road]. So right now it’s extremely important for us to unblock the seaports

“We need a guarantee from partners, of course it’s a defence guarantee, a security guarantee” #WEF2022
NEW /3

$300b to reconstruct Ukraine required… Shd Russia pay?

“Of course. Of course. We need a clear procedure to get
frozen assets..shd take them and fund reconstruction. No sense finding other sources.

Otherwise why freeze the yachts, apartments, football clubs?”
#WEF2022
Are you a little bit worried that some EU big capitals might sell out Ukraine?

“We're fighting for the democracy of the world, not only for Ukraine, that's why you know, it costs money…”

… world should take hit “right now” of stronger sanctions to stop war, she says.
“Russia treats the world with world hunger,” says Ukraine DPM Yulia Svyrydenko accusing Russia of deliberately blocking food supplies to provoke famine, something echoed by the UN World Food Programme, and plenty of attendees here at WEF

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More from @faisalislam

May 21
Interesting to see what some of the PM’s advisors, who have also been advising the roundly defeated Morrison campaign, think might be the lessons, if any, of this for their UK strategy…
limits to any parallels, but intriguing a well funded climate activist formed a party of independent mainly women “teals” is picking off seats helping defeat Morrison Govt..

And a late text message campaign on border migrant pushbacks hasn’t worked

abc.net.au/news/2022-05-2…
Read 5 tweets
May 18
NEW Chancellor speaks to biz leaders @CBItweets
“the economic situation is extremely serious. A perfect storm of global supply shocks is rolling through our economy simultaneous global demand shifting last year from services to goods and exacerbating supply chain bottlenecks”
NEW: Chancellor @CBItweets: “those inflationary pressures are starting to weigh on growth… The next few months will be tough…. And so as the situation evolves, our response will evolve. We stand ready to do more .” Image
Sunak: “At same time, we need to be careful….At time of severe supply restrictions, an unconstrained fiscal stimulus does risk making problem worse by pushing up prices still further, embedding high inflation expectations & creating a vicious cycle of even higher interest rates”
Read 4 tweets
May 18
NEW UK Inflation hits 40 year high on the CPI measure of 9%
Retail Prices Index - the older target measure - has now hit double digits - 11%. Highest since Feb 1982
This is what a 40 year high looks like in context - as I said they’ve had to recreate an artificial historical time series, because it is the highest reading on the measure since it was created. NB target is 2%.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Read 12 tweets
May 16
BLOG: Ahead of the Bank of England Governor’s appearance in front of MPs - the predictable cost of living blame game, and questions about its 25 year independence record as inflation heads to a 40 year high… bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Double digit inflation not good, its bad, says Governor Bailey to MPs, says at peak, “80% of this is down to energy and tradable goods” and the BoE cant predict wars, and the issue is a series of shocks one after the other without gaps….
… Bailey warns on some “very weak numbers” coming out of China as a result of its latest pandemic lockdowns… says it is being hit more than in first round…
Read 10 tweets
May 13
This is the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill Impact Assessment, dated 21 October 2019:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

It contains the Government’s own expectations at time the Brexit deal was done of the border/ checks required within UK, in the Irish Sea as a result of the PM’s deal:
4.5.1: Customs: “Any processes normally required on goods entering EU will be implemented at NI-RoW border or on trade moving East-West between GB & NI”

4.5.4.2.1 “Agrifood goods enter NI from GB via Border Inspection Post as required under EU law”
264: “additional documentation required on all agrifood goods moving from GB to NI.. incl EHCs, PCs, admin cost”

266: “Protocol will require additional checks covering all products subject to SPS”.. “upper limit in Table 8”

Table 8: “%age subject to physical checks 20%-100%”
Read 10 tweets
May 12
UK GDP up 0.8% in Q1 of this year, making economy 0.7% bigger than pre pandemic…

All that growth occurred in January, with flat economy in Feb, and small contraction in March in first few days of Russia-Ukraine invasion
Vs rest of G7, UK had second fastest growth in Q1 behind Canada, (awaiting Japan) some of that is still rebound from bigger falls before. Comparing with growth from the end of 2019, before pandemic UK 4th out of G7
UK trade deficit widened to a record 5.3% of GDP in Q1 2022 ..
Read 10 tweets

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