Thread by @busanga

Folks always delude themselves about delegates and their behavior. I always find external analyst views, especially journalists, interesting on these matters and they always seem to miss it. Because not all delegates, like all elections, are equal. #DelicateDelegateInsights

Not all elections are the same, and delegates are not given enough credit as to how savvy they’re about these things. Delegates are politicians, first and foremost - and want to win, which is the most important factor to them: not money, not godfather. #DelicateDelegateInsights

The method of voting also determine the behavior of delegates. Where absolute secret ballot is guaranteed, they can behave very independently, whereas if there is more close marking by their benefactors like serialized or coloured ballots- they toe line. #DelicateDelegateInsights

Going into the national conventions of both the @OfficialAPCNg and @OfficialPDPNig this weekend, one thing is clear - their delegates will behave differently based on some novel circumstances, relative to prior years. Hence, they’re unpredictable #DelicateDelegateInsights

For the @OfficialPDPNig there will be two types of delegates on the electability question: One, that believes in the Atiku Mysticism, the other that believes in Power Rotation. They will battle it out & no one can be sure the winner. Why? Blame @MBuhari #DelicateDelegateInsights

Prior to PMB ambush this weekend that pruned down PDP’s delegate list to about 810 (some say 821), the former VP Atiku was coasting to victory with the statutory delegates. But with adhoc in charge now, things look bleak for the former Customs Officer #DelicateDelegateInsights

Why? Adhocs are not as politically sophisticated as the statutory delegates and PDP’s adhoc list is a bench of political hangers-on, suddenly with the lives of candidates in their hands. The adhocs can’t be swayed by NE turn or the Atiku can do it talk. #DelicateDelegateInsights

The biggest challenge for Atiku, is ethnicity & religion. His biggest + is that his opponents can split the vote against him. The raw feelings of PDP southern bloc with 8 of 13 governors is that the Presidency should move south. Same in the Mid-Belt. #DelicateDelegateInsights

These governors will control their delegates heading into the primaries. And are from large states with lots of LGAs - Oyo, Benue & Rivers.Atiku is however lucky, that the leader of this coalition - Wike, is also not well liked by some Governor elements. #DelicateDelegateInsights

However, he can’t be too sure of the Anti-Wike feeling, in a secret ballot situation.With a coalition between the Southern States & Middle Belt likely, the unsophisticated adhoc May be swayed by the raw feelings for power shift & vote for the viable Wike #DelicateDelegateInsights

Atiku is also running into a dangerous situation in the North, esp NW where PDP has no Governor and thus unpledged delegates that can be swayed by $$$. Wike have lots of it. In the NE, the Bauchi governor is fracturing his tiny base with fewer delegates #DelicateDelegateInsights

What damage can a Peter Obi do to Wike in the South with an insurgency campaign fueled by idealists? I will estimate not much given his performance so far. His campaign started too late and half heartedly, and couldn’t match Wike in coverage. #DelicateDelegateInsights

His campaign may not be able to do as much damage as Bauchi Governor’s campaign May do to Atiku, since the Bauchi guy is actually a sitting Governor and the leader of the party in NE. Peter Obi has no base, and can’t suck guaranteed votes away from Wike. #DelicateDelegateInsights

The floundering campaign of Busola Saraki and Sule Lamido notwithstanding, their candidacy sucks away votes not from Wike but from Atiku, in the new PMB Scenario of few adhoc delegates instead of establishment statutory types that would have gone Atiku #DelicateDelegateInsights

But a late entrant threatens @GovWike insurgent campaign, Governor @MrUdomEmmanuel . He like the Bauchi Governor Bello, has guaranteed delegates that can reduced the strays to Wike, but his campaign unlike the Bauchi guy comes too late like Tambuwal #DelicateDelegateInsights

Correction: “where PDP has “one” governor”, in Sokoto State in the NW. Since he is running too, danger is also to Atiku to lose this vote and advantage Wike

On the balance of things, the PDP primary is a battle between Atiku and Wike. After the PMB electoral law ambush of this weekend, the race can only be called a toss up, instead of the mildly confident “Leaning Atiku” we would have called it last week. #DelicateDelegatesInsight

The one modifying factor to this outlook, is the method of voting adopted by the @OfficialPDPNig NWC. There is no doubt that Atiku has the Chairman in his pocket, but that is not enough. Wike have moles in NWC too. thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022… #DelicateDelegateInsights