Thread by @VincentFoucher

#Guinea Defence Minister Aboubacar Sidiki Camara ("Idi Amin") is announcing pretty significant reforms in the country's force. It's important, because the military is a key player in Guinean politics. A thread...

President Condé was removed by a coup in last September and the country is led by a military junta under Colonel Doumbouya, the #CNRD.

Here are the key measures, and thoughts about their meaning and potential impact.

1. Instead of buying and providing rice to the troops in addition to wages, as the military used to do since the Lansana Conté era, the military will pay the money directly to soldiers, adding to their wages.

2. Food expenses that used to be allotted to commanders for them to provide for the troops sustenance will be paid directly to soldiers.

3. Soldiers will be given two kits a year, with four-year supply (280,000) already secured while soldiers had to buy their kits. The military has procured additional fabric and will produce and sell necessary kits at the Usine Militaire, Camp Alfa Yaya.

3bis. Incidentally, this indicates that the army stands at 35,000 (which is big indeed relative to the population by the region's standards).

3ter. Kits will be standardised. Only berets and insignia will differentiate units.

4. At a later point, when budget allows, private building company Guicopres will complete its pending works on accommodation for the military.

5. Military health services will be developed, in order to reduce the cost of medevacs abroad. (fun fact: the echography machine at Camp Samory was rented out to civilians !)

6. Guinea will develop its own military preparatory school ("prytanée"), to redress the monopolisation of the scholarships for the prytanées abroad (notably Senegal & Togo) by the top ranks and ministers.

7. Incidentally, General Camara mentions steps to remove ghost soldiers whose pay was taken by some military bureaucrats and bigwigs. I have also heard about that independently.

So what does it all mean? It may all seem bureaucratic and boring. But it is ESSENTIAL and very political and quite sensitive. The general direction seems to be that of cutting opportunities for enrichment for the hierarchy and improving the lot of the privates.

All this can substantially transform the dynamics in the military. It can weaken clientelism within the force... and thus also reduce factionalism and the potential for coups...

The standardisation of clothing seems to be part of this strategy to reduce factional and clientelistic tensions and consolidate the military's broad esprit de corps. Hitherto, units depended on their commander's good will and cunning...

Coming from Doumbouya, who led a smalland very distinct unit, the Groupement des Forces Spéciales, it is an interesting move. He is probably trying to consolidate his support in the broader military, particularly among the privates.

If those changes are implemented & maintained, they will certainly ruffle feathers in parts of the officer corps and bureaucracy. Brutal loss of rents for some...

Can it lead to some push back? Maybe. But my sense is Doumbouya and Idi Amin know the game and the losers may well just take their loss and play ball. Difficult for now to move.

There is also the broader political context: inflation & contestation of the slow pace of the transition by the political class & the influential civil society movement #FNDC are converging towards a new round of protests.

In this context, for Doumbouya, getting the military right is a real plus.

Let's see how this plays out. Implementation is a bitch. But with this reform, Doumbouya is hitting at the very core of the problem in many West African armies. This is what real #SSR should be about @NiagaleBagayoko @boisvertma @PaulinToupane @YabiGilles @issafrica @denis_tull

In a way, it's all about going legal-rational bureaucratic à la Weber: improving, stabilising and standardising wages, weakening dyadic clientelistic links, nurturing a more abstract loyalty to the institution.

As all major changes in legitimation styles, it takes what Weber would call "charisma" - Doumbouya's persona, his aura of strength, proficiency and modernity. Whether this can succeed, whether this will not turn into another clientelistic operation, we shall find out...

One thing that I find particularly interesting in this batch of reforms promoted by the Guinean junta is that it is endogenous. As opposed to the usual #SSR, it comes from the Guinean military themselves, and they know what matters.

Unlike a number of international SSR experts who know shit about the context, they are not stuck in technocratic procedural dream. They know the game, and they know it has a lot to do with political economy, career opportunities, income, formal and informal.

The junta, they don't have to be polite.They can talk about clientele & embezzlement. They have more leverage, a better sense of the gives and takes of reform.

Also, unlike external reformers or a civilian government, they have the leverage to go beyond procedures and training and they can try and effect significant structural changes in resource allocation.

Again, it's not clear how far the attempt will go. After all, it seems in part meant for self-protection (reaching out to the rank and file of the whole Army to try and deprive disgruntled officers from followership).

But productive reforms are not always carried out exclusively out of selflessness. It's definitely an interesting attempt, worth keeping an eye on.