Ali Vaez Profile picture
May 25 4 tweets 1 min read
At #SFRCIran, @USEnvoyIran: When the deal was initially concluded and debated by the Congress, and again when the previous administration left the deal, this question prompted heated arguments based on hypotheticals and counterfactuals.
But we do not need to rely on theory or thought experiments to answer it now. For we have gone through several years of a real-life experiment in the very policy approach critics of the JCPOA advocated: a so-called maximum pressure policy, designed to strangle revenue for…
the Iranian regime, in hopes of getting Iran to accept far greater nuclear restrictions and engage in far less aggressive behavior. Many of us strongly disagreed with this policy at the time, but we could of course not prove that it would fail.
That was then. This is now. Then we predicted. Now we know.

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More from @AliVaez

May 25
🧵 IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi: "Two things ongoing at the moment, which are parallel & interconnected. One is the attempts to revive the JCPOA. This has been a long process, ongoing for more than a year, which at the moment seems to be going through a great deal of difficulty" 1/
2/ Because of things that perhaps have not much to do with nuclear matters.

I think the nuclear aspects of the agreement are pretty much finalized.

But still, there are doubts.
3/ The issue there is what happens if we have to confront a reality where the agreement will not be there. And I have been reporting to the world about the developments around the nuclear program of Iran, which is a very big, very ambitious program...
Read 9 tweets
May 8
#OTD in 2018, President Trump announced that his administration was withdrawing the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal.

It was a massive gamble. It was a failed gamble. But should be an instructive gamble. 🧵👇
2/ Trump had criticized the agreement on the campaign trail, but held off for over a year from pulling the plug, in part because senior members of his team believed the deal continued to serve U.S. non-proliferation interests.
3/ In Autumn 2017, Trump refused to certify the agreement - though still holding off withdrawal.

"We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more chaos, the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakout", he said.

More on that shortly.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 5
Tomorrow marks 1 year since the first round of #ViennaTalks kicked off.

A state of play on where we've been, where we are, and where we might be going in this very peculiar exercise.🧵
2| It was clear from the outset that despite shared goal of reviving JCPOA, path would be anything but easy. To destroy is easier than to rebuild, & even having a baseline text already available still required a way for both sides to resume commitments under new realities.
3| Negotiators set up working groups on sanctions relief and nuclear rollback, with a third on sequencing added later. Through June - the final round involving Rouhani's team - significant progress was made before the Iranian electoral calendar led to 5-month hiatus.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
What's happening in #ViennaTalks? A state of play, best as I can tell [Thread]
2/ Last week, the main - but not sole - area of disagreement was over Iran's @IAEAOrg safeguards probe. U.S./E3 as well as the agency were clear that closing it was a non-starter.

DG Grossi went to Tehran on Saturday, secured an roadmap to address this.

One step forward.
3/ But the same day, right after 🇮🇱 PM’s visit, Russia's FM threw a wrench into the mix:

Facing what he described as an "avalanche of aggressive sanctions" against 🇷🇺 over 🇺🇦 Lavrov called for guarantees that these would not "in any way damage our right to free and full trade".
Read 9 tweets
Mar 10
Why should we listen to policy makers who have been consistently wrong? These Democrats supported Trump's withdrawal and are responsible for allowing Iran to advance to the verge of nuclear weapons. jewishinsider.com/2022/03/eleven…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
This afternoon, Senators @SenatorRisch, @tedcruz and @SenJohnBarrasso are leading a @SenateGOP press conference on the Iran nuclear deal.

You'd be hard-pressed to find three people who've been as wrong over as long a period on how to address Iran's nuclear program. [Thread] Image
2| Here's @SenatorRisch talking to @NPR in 2017, prior to Trump's withdrawal. He laments the deal's sunsets (not 10 years, BTW), and says the solution is... sanctions. Well, we know how that worked out - no nuclear restrictions at all! Image
3| Here's @SenJohnBarrasso on @FoxNews in 2019, lauding the decision to withdraw because "it didn't step them from getting the path to the weapon".

Yet here we are, with Iran enriching near-weapons grade, under limited monitoring, weeks from breakout capability. Image
Read 6 tweets

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