Thread by @SabFis3

🇺🇦’s effort to defend itself against #RussiasWar is jeopardized on various levels. Western leaders must be careful not to undermine it. „Freezing“ the conflict along the current lines of combat would be extremely disadvantageous for 🇺🇦 and set a dangerous precedent for Europe.

🇷🇺 intensifies its efforts to complete the occupation of the Donbas and the southeast of 🇺🇦, putting 🇺🇦's army under enormous strain. 🇷🇺 is simultaneously working to transform the newly occ terr into de facto statelets (building administrative structures, handing out passports).

In March Kyiv desperately searched for negotiated solutions in the face of 🇷🇺’s mil superiority. This let to a 10 point plan presented in Istanbul on 29/03, combining restoration of the 23/02 contact line and talks about Crimea‘s status with neutrality and security guarantees.

Bucha in early April, resolute weapons supplies by the West (Ramstein meeting on 26 April!) and 🇺🇦’s mil successes changed the dynamic. 🇷🇺 had to refocus on the east and southeast, 🇺🇦 hoped to achieve more on the battlefield. The sides withdrew from the negotiations on 17/05.

For some weeks now there has been a confusing discussion in some Western capitals about 🇺🇦’s true war goals. Those calling for a more „moderate“ approach, including vis-à-vis Moscow, fear that Kyiv could strive for deoccupation of ALL of UA‘s territory, including DLNR and Crimea.

This was not only unrealistic, the argument goes, but also dangerous, because it might tempt Putin to escalate the conflict asymmetrically – for instance by using tactical nukes. So 🇺🇦 should be ready to compromise and not pursue overambitious goals.

Indeed 🇺🇦 leaders were more vague in their statements throughout April, suggesting that complete deoccupation might be on their minds. And seriously: after Bucha, how do you explain that eventually people will have to put up with the perpetrators of these atrocities?

But more recently #Zelensky reiterated 🇺🇦‘s Istanbul position (restoration of contact line, negotiations about Crimea) – perhaps to do away with the unhelpful debate in the West.
babel.ua/en/news/78904-…

The West is having some trouble with its support for 🇺🇦. The EU takes too long to impose its oil embargo. Turkey wants to reap transactional benefits from its approval of FIN and SWE NATO accession. Western societies are starting to feel the economic fall-out of the war.

Everybody is afraid of a global food crisis. The pressure is rising. But trying to force Kyiv to accept a ceasefire now would not only destabilise 🇺🇦 further, it would also confirm 🇷🇺 in its belief hat compromise is for everyone else but not them.

The West should support 🇺🇦’s Istanbul position. The closer UA gets to its realisation, the better for all of us. Italy’s proposal last week was untimely – even though it contained some good elements. "Fortunately" even Moscow dismissed it today.🇺🇦