John Pfaff Profile picture
May 26 5 tweets 2 min read
This is why I keep saying we have NO idea where policing reform is heading.

The homicide/shooting surge in 2020/21 put reforms on the defensive.

But a video of heavily armed cops arresting parents while refusing to save children as unarmed teachers sacrificed themselves?
I know there is a sense that “nothing after Sandy Hook = nothing ever.” But that’s… an assumption. It MAY be true, but we have no data.

And here—we have video, and video arriving under a different underlying politics-of-crime.
Maybe nothing will come of this. But many Black men were murdered by police before George Floyd—yet his murder was ultimately a match that caught. (Of course, for some reason the others didn’t; it’s all so hard, if not impossible, to predict.)
There’s been a flood of reinforcing events: the Taiwanese churchgoers who had to subdue the shooter on their own, the Buffalo retired police officer who couldn’t kill the attacker, now the Uvalde cops fighting parents.

Politics built on sensationalism seem … unstable.
Anyway, I know Twitter isn’t real life, but I feel like there is a tone of systemic distrust in policing #onhere that is … new, and from unexpected sources.

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More from @JohnFPfaff

May 28
I get the outrage at the police waiting an hour. But also, I get why they didn’t want to get cut down by an AR15.

Sometimes I fear this line of discussion leads to “get more fearless cops.”

The resulting selection effect here? Seems AWFUL, right?
The police had JUST trained for this. And, like the cops at Columbine and Parkdale, didn’t charge into withering fire bc … that’s really, really hard.

I think we should emphasize the REASONABLENESS of that fear and work to make sure those bullets don’t fly at all.
School shootings, while devastating, are rare. Mass shootings are too (tho can depend on the def).

So if we change hiring practices for these events, we are also changing who does all the routine policing where these officers will spend 99.99% of their time.
Read 4 tweets
May 27
So: some data that is highly relevant to the @chesaboudin recall debate.

Here's an overlay of local voting outcomes with shootings in 2019. What we see that, by and large, Boudin did best where the shootings ARE. ImageImageImage
This is pattern we see elsewhere: it was the case in Philly last year, and preliminary results show similar patterns in Chicago and even Pittsburgh (where the progressive lost, but still appears to have done better where there were more shootings).

This is important.
This undermines a common pushback against progressive prosecution, that it is the indulgence of progressive white voters in safe areas who are unaffected by their decisions.

That is NOT what we are seeing here.
Read 6 tweets
May 26
Just need to say: graphs plotting some sort of gun control score vs gun deaths—all of which show more regs = less deaths—don’t… really show that. And may in fact misshape our debate on gun violence.

My priors remain that regs reduce violence. But….
There’s a huge selection effect problem here. The states that adopt tougher regs aren’t random. They’re the states more likely to invest in other social services as well.

Those TOO reduce gun violence. Maybe—given our volume of guns, perhaps likely—more than gun control.
Those simple graphs don’t show the impact of, say, Brady Scores on gun death. They show the impact of being in a state w a low Brady Score—including all the OTHER stuff that correlates w that score.

But “better Brady = less death” puts crim legal responses at the center.
Read 6 tweets
May 26
I’m paywalled out, but disagree w the title. Crim legal reform isn’t dead.

POLICE reform has taken a beating. But police reform isn’t the only thing. And police reform isn’t over yet.

Here’s what we really, honestly, absolutely know abt where reform will be in 5 years:
Nothing.
We have never been in a political moment like this, and we basically have no studies on what the (actual) politics of crime are to try to extrapolate from in the first place.

It’s way way WAY too early to say if reform has died or not.
Read 6 tweets
May 26
I get the emotional desire to scream #onhere abt the insultingly juvenile “solutions” GOPers have proposed lately. (I’ve done it myself.)

But better, I think, to point to solutions we know can work. Force the discussion to be productive, despite GOP efforts to thwart that.
Here’s a study from @Arnold_Ventures and @JohnJayREC on non-police responses that can reduce violence, including data on effective gun control responses: johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/upl… Image
Here’s a report by @courtinnovation on the social contexts of youth gun possession—there are REASONS we can address abt why kids have guns: courtinnovation.org/sites/default/… Image
Read 7 tweets
May 26
Going out on a limb to guess that most countries have not been forced to set up a database focused exclusively on gun violence in K-12 schools.

That we have--like the fact that we have to have methodological debates over what counts as a "mass shooting"--speaks ... volumes. Image
If interested, you can check it out here: chds.us/ssdb/
"How do we separate `school shootings' from all the other ways gun violence permeates our schools is a tough methodological question..." asks one of the only countries that has to have this methodological debate. Image
Read 4 tweets

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