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Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
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May 27 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
We have genuinely tried "living with covid" in highly vaxed pop & is proving unsustainable for health system & economy

Time to try "living w less covid?"

NOTHING in "vax only" strategy game changer in near term. Boosters marginal at pop level, better (mucosal) vax uncertain 🧵
Our strategy in face of unsustainable situation seems to be:
1. Doubling down on what's not working (vax, necessary but not sufficient)
2. Hoping better versions of (1) come soon &
3. Changing testing / reporting & a PR campaign to convince everyone that things are actually fine
Of course, things substantially better than pre vaccines. Refrigerated trucks, mass graves & lockdowns are a thing of the past
But we have settled into a state of chronic moderate levels of death which have made covid a/the leading cause of death in many places & imposed unsustainable loads on our health systems, economies (esp. those w social security) & personal lives

Add enormously worrying issue of #LongCovid

@BankofEngland:

"Scale & persistence of drop in labour supply has been surprise to many forecasters, including us... suspect much of rise in inactivity due to long-term sickness...for example Long Covid & rise in NHS waiting lists"
bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2022/ma…
We can debate whether was ever reasonable to proceed with vaccines only strategy but the fact is, we tried, & it is failing - not immediately catastrophically, but significantly & unsustainably

This strategy also offers no way out or forward given already mostly high vax rates
I wondered about this last year as we were getting vax rates up (necessary not sufficient)

Would we choose "high covid" state or "low covid" state afterwards? Deliberately avoided loaded / technical terms e.g. elimination

Currently we have "high covid / low protections" state

Is it time to shift course to "high protections / lower covid" state w:
- Public education
- Improved vax access for underdone groups e.g. kids
- #SafeIndoorAir
- Targeted mask use
- TTIQ

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More from @drgregkelly

Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Apr 5
"Vaccines only" #COVID19 strategy w removal of other protections makes perfect if you hold 6 beliefs

Each belief WAS reasonable in 2020, yet proved wrong w time. Now, to maintain the idea that things are OK, each of these 6 beliefs must be defended with ever more vigor 🧵
I am completely serious that each belief was reasonable to hold at the start of the pandemic, and I myself held most of them. As we have learned more, I have changed my view, however many people have not and each of these beliefs has become a frontline in its own right - why?
I believe that cognitive dissonance explains a lot

...It is hard for us to admit we were wrong because this causes dissonance in our minds "I am a good person vs. I caused harm / I was wrong"

It is cognitively easier to change facts than to resolve the cognitive dissonance
Read 29 tweets
Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Jan 27
Hi @edu_sagov @SAHealth -this press release contains dangerous misunderstanding of role of HEPA air purifiers in reducing #COVID19 transmission

Purifiers DO NOT remove CO2, so this trial says nothing about their ability to remove virus, which they can do

education.sa.gov.au/department/med…
@edu_sagov @SAHealth
Big win thanks to amplification on Twitter & great journalism by @stephrrichards. @edu_sagov have corrected error in press release & announced that they will purchase 4000 filters

More to be done but good progress

Here is article
indaily.com.au/news/2022/01/2…
Read 4 tweets
Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Jan 20
"Science has defanged Covid, time to get on with our lives"

This, by usually reasonable Devi Sridhar, is a huge worry because it is almost entirely disconnected from the current reality that the pandemic is far from over and buys into a HUGE fallacy

🧵

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Fallacy is this - we should relax about #COVID19 b/c then we "treat...this virus like we do other infectious disease threats"

Reality is that if we treated covid like we do other threats and STOPPED NORMALISING CATASTROPHE we would do MORE, not less
We should do more to control #COVID19 for three main reasons, all major concerns in most countries:
1. Death
2. Health, happiness & productivity
3. Inclusion
Read 10 tweets
Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Dec 15, 2021
The most dangerous idea in Australia right now is that, somehow, our #COVID19 experience could have / should have been much better

Objectively we have done better than almost anywhere w low deaths AND good economy yet we are about to throw it all away because it's really hard 🧵
It's done without any coherent strategic thought about where we're headed

New style is just to pick and choose bits we like from Western countries at certain times w/out seeing how their strategy fits together or how it unfolds. Eg Denmark looked awesome 3m ago let's be them!
And, side note, to completely ignore non Western countries and esp. Asian countries who have consistently and repeatedly outperformed Western countries
Read 6 tweets
Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Oct 25, 2021
I'm increasingly thinking that the main Q we need to ask ourselves in highly vaccinated countries is:

Do we want the pandemic to continue or do we want to start wearing high quality masks in public?

Brief 🧵
Mencken said that for every complex problem there's an answer that is clear, simple & wrong

However, caution re. oversimplification shouldn't obscure the fact that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 IS simple

It can ONLY be transmitted from an infected person to an uninfected person
Science is increasingly confident that airborne transmission of #COVID19 predominates

Humans ONLY breathe through their nose & mouth, both exhalation & inhalation*

*Principle not changed by small % with tracheostomies and some people that appear to talk mainly out of their arse
Read 9 tweets
Dr Greg Kelly Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021
Honoured to appear at the Senate Select Committee on #COVID19 alongside Prof Raina MacIntyre on behalf of @RealOzSAGE - specifically discussing COVID and kids

Chaired by Senator Gallagher @SenKatyG

⬇️🧵on my comments below

Appears to be controversy on COVID & kids:

- Experts saying less severe in kids than adults, only 2% hospital admission, death v rare

- Overwhelmed paediatric hospitals in US & now Canada

Both are true, if we understand why we can avoid worst of #COVID19 in Australia, again
1, risk is not evenly spread

An average of 2% of hospital admission & much lower of death hides that there are some children & adults with much higher risk

E.g. some data suggest Down Syndrome (pretty common) greatly increases risk of death
Read 12 tweets

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