Thread by @DaveKeating

Leaders now arriving for the #EUCO summit in Brussels.

The big question journalists will be asking: are we really close to a Russian #OilEmbargo agreement today, and what are the details of this compromise?

Entering #EUCO, 🇪🇺President @VonDerLeyen pours cold water on the rumours we are close to a #RussianOil ban deal.

"My expectations are low that it will be solved in the next 48 hours, but I'm confident that thereafter there will be a possibility."

Now entering: the man of the hour.

Will #Orban drop his veto on the EU's #RussianOil embargo today?

#Orban also squashes the #OilEmbargo compromise rumours: "There is no agreement at all" he tells journalists.

"I have just got the text now and there is no agreement of course"

Orban says he can't accept compromise text now on the table, but idea to exempt Russian oil coming via pipeline is "a good approach"

"But we need a guarantee that in case of an accident with a pipeline going through 🇺🇦, we have to have the right to get 🇷🇺 oil from other sources"

#Orban says if there's no #OilEmbargo agreement it's fault of Commission's "irresponsible behavior" for putting forward the proposal without MS agreement or an impact assessment.

"The responsibility of not having an agreement today will be on the shoulders of the Commission"

#Orban is asked to respond to criticism that he is behaving as "#Putin's puppet" by vetoing the EU's #RussianOil embargo.

"Fake news," he responds.

(In the past days I have also privately heard this complaint about Commission's proposal being premature from Western diplomats, one saying President @VonDerLeyen succumbed to 🇵🇱🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 pressure.

Particular discontent that Commission still hasn't conducted an impact assessment)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sounded more positive about the prospect of a deal today as he entered #EUCO.

“One should not praise the day before the evening...but everything I hear sounds as if there could be a consensus.”

Is he just out of the loop?

🇱🇻Latvian PM #Kariņš says he'll tell #Orban to think not about technical details of an oil embargo but about the big picture.

"It's only money. The Ukrainians are playing with their lives. If we get bogged down only thinking about money, what is the sense of our union?"

@EUCOPresident Michel also enters #EUCO sounding a positive note: "We made progress in recent hours on the topic and I hope we'll be able to take a decision [at this summit]"

Quite a different message from Commission President @VonDerLeyen.

#EUCO summit discussions starting now.

The future effects of an EU embargo on #RussianOil are still very unknown and no impact assessment has been conducted.

Here's a backgrounder article from me about all the uncertainty surrounding this issue: energymonitor.ai/policy/interna…