Thread by @dsemenzcrim

In the wake of the #Uvalde shooting, I’d like to contribute by stating what should be obvious: more guns equals more gun deaths. This is true at all levels of analysis and can help guide the policy conversation on reducing gun violence. Here is a🧵with receipts, so bear with me:

First, the home. “Having a gun at home is a risk factor for adults to be shot fatally (gun homicide) or commit suicide with a firearm.” There are many other rigorous studies like this one that show similar findings.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Next, neighborhoods. Here is a study from Newark on illegal firearm access, but there are others in places like Detroit that similarly show more guns equates to more deaths.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…

Further, we recently found that within neighborhoods, shootings happen closer to gun stores, particularly in disadvantaged places.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

Across cities, both legal access via gun dealers and access to stolen guns corresponds with higher homicide rates, albeit depending on population and type of homicide in question. Here is a study on legal access via gun dealers in 286 cities.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

And here's a recent study showing that more stolen guns in a city relates to more gun deaths, using multiple measures, especially in disadvantaged places:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…

How about counties? Especially in areas with large cities, more access to guns within and in surrounding counties equates to more gun deaths.

link.springer.com/article/10.118…

Now onto states. Researchers at Boston University found that more guns equal more gun deaths looking at all 50 states in the country from 1981 to 2010.

ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.21…

And it’s worth highlighting a recent study showing that states with both lax gun laws and greater access to guns have higher rates of MASS shootings. This one is especially relevant given the policy/gun access climate in Texas.

bmj.com/content/364/bm…

Of course, it shouldn't be surprising this all holds true from country to country. “Across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides.” The US is exceptional here for all the wrong reasons.

journals.lww.com/jtrauma/Fullte…

Together, in a review of the literature from almost 20 years ago, Harvard researchers found the “available evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that increased gun prevalence increases the homicide rate.” The evidence has only gotten stronger.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Yes, there are different ways of measuring gun availability - no one way is perfect. But there is solid evidence pointing in a consistent direction from experts across disciplines. The US has more guns and more gun deaths than any peer nation in the world. These are facts.

We need policies that prevent those who wish to do harm to themselves or others from accessing guns. I believe this means: 1) universal background checks, 2) a ban on assault weapons, 3) increased age requirements, and 4) a comprehensive licensing and permitting infrastructure.

Implementing just one narrow policy will not make a big enough dent in the violence we have accepted for so long. But if we don’t start with the basic facts, things will never get better. I understand there are political realties but more people WILL die without major reform.

Please feel free to reach out to me directly via DM or email if you can't access any of these studies. I can provide additional studies at every level of analysis. And please share in case this can help move a fact-based conversation forward. #EndGunViolence

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