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Noble Francis Profile picture
@NobleFrancis
Jun 1, 2022 • 10 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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A further rise in UK construction materials prices as expected as the spikes in energy costs & commodity prices continue to feed through after the Ukraine invasion. Materials prices in April 2022 were 25.2% higher than a year ago according to BEIS...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... & the 25.2% annual increase in UK construction materials prices in April 2022 compares with 24.5% in March & the recent peak of 23.7% in October 2021 (when there were materials availability issues) & it is worth noting that, firstly,...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... materials prices in April 2022 were not only 25.2% higher than a year ago but prices are now 38.4% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, which affects contractors on fixed-price contracts signed up to over the last few years, secondly...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... the full impact of energy cost & commodity price rises on construction materials inflation after the Ukraine invasion will still be coming through over the next 3-6 months due to the use pre-purchasing & forward contracts &, thirdly,...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... that the UK construction materials inflation varies considerably by product, with the sharpest price rises in the year to April 2022 on steel products such as concrete reinforcing bars (62%) & fabricated structural steel (46%) because...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... 13% of UK imports of construction steel come from Russia & Ukraine (so supply is directly affected & there is a rise in demand & price from other sources), recent commodity price spikes are leading to iron ore & steel price rises plus...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... steel construction is energy-intensive (& energy costs account for between 25% & 33% of total costs for energy-intensive product manufacturers) so the recent sharp energy cost rises are also contributing to the sharp price rises. For...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... softwood timber products, around 6% of UK imports come from Russia & Ukraine so there is a slight supply impact & import price rise as demand rises from other sources although these are not energy-intensive products so the price rises are not...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... for softwood timber are not as high as for steel & it is worth noting timber prices were falling, albeit from high levels, between October 2021 & February 2022 with prices rising from March 2022 due to the Ukraine invasion supply impact &...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... & as construction activity ramps up in the Spring in certain sectors such as private housing & renovation combined with merchant stocks of softwood timber simultaneously falling.
#ukconstruction #construction Image

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More from @NobleFrancis

Noble Francis Profile picture
Aug 13
The UK construction workforce yet fell again in 2024 Q2 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In 2024 Q2, there were 2.04 million workers in UK construction, 5.1% lower than a year ago & it was at its lowest level since 2000 Q1. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
The number of workers in UK construction in 2024 Q2 was 385,286 (15.9%) lower than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1 & 523,572 workers (21.0%) lower than at the longer-term peak in 2008 Q3, which was just before the impacts of the financial crisis. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Unsurprisingly, the main reason for the sharp decline in the UK construction workforce is the more than 20% fall in the two largest construction sectors; house building & housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) but... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Read 12 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
May 16
A thread on the latest UK construction employment data for 2024 Q1 as the industry continues to lose key skilled workers who will be critical for economic growth, productivity, building more homes, better infrastructure & net zero transition. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
There were 2.08 million people employed in UK construction in 2024 Q1, which is 1.9% lower than in Q4 & a year ago plus 14.3% lower (347,000 fewer workers) than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. This sharp fall in construction workers is... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... partly due to the double-digit falls in activity in the 2 largest construction sectors, private house building & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). The sharp decline in UK construction employment also includes the... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 13 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
May 10
A long thread on the latest ONS construction output data for March 2024... Construction output in a weather-affected March was 0.4% lower than in rain-affected February & 2.2% lower than a year ago according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Given the impact of the poor weather on construction activity in 2024 Q1, especially outdoor construction activity, 2024 Q2 may see a degree catch-up activity, although note that... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
... whilst an extent of catch up activity in construction may occur on larger sites, most smaller sites lack the additional spare capacity needed to catch up so work generally just ends up being pushed back instead. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Read 24 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Mar 19
A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
However, the age-demographic problem & the loss of UK-born construction employment has accelerated rapidly between 2019 Q1 & 2023 Q4 with a loss of more than 300,000 UK construction workers in less than five years. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
Read 13 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Feb 16
4,378 UK construction firms went out of business in the year to December 2023. This is 5.1% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to this morning's Government Insolvency Service data. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The 4,378 UK construction firms that went under in the UK in year to December 2023 was at its highest levels since the financial crisis, over 10 years ago. In fact,... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
... UK construction insolvencies were already at their highest levels since the financial crisis at the end of 2022 & have continued to gradually rise since then & UK construction insolvencies are expected to continue to rise further in 2024 H1. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 11 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Oct 4, 2023
UK brick deliveries in August 2023 (a proxy for actual house building starts as housebuilders rushed through 'technical starts' in Q2, doing the minimum necessary to get ahead of the uprated building regulations F, L, O & S that add cost) were... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... the lagged impact of mortgage rate rises in May & June on not only the housing market but house building starts, with house builders unsurprisingly focusing on completing existing developments rather than starting new developments. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
Read 7 tweets

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