Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housing.
Given how much house building has fallen since 2022 & how low it still is, for government to reach its target, house building would need to more than double to 400,000 homes a year in just 5 years, which has never happened & won't happen now. (2/n)
Interestingly, we would have expected deliveries to rise significantly in April, May & June but demand & house builder near-term optimism has slowed signficantly in 2025 Q2 & July. (2/n)
So, this weekend, the Chancellor announced “£600 million worth of investment to train up to 60,000 more skilled construction workers. This will help build 1.5 million homes to transform communities by the end of this Parliament”. (2/n)
The number of workers in UK construction in 2024 Q2 was 385,286 (15.9%) lower than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1 & 523,572 workers (21.0%) lower than at the longer-term peak in 2008 Q3, which was just before the impacts of the financial crisis. (2/n)
There were 2.08 million people employed in UK construction in 2024 Q1, which is 1.9% lower than in Q4 & a year ago plus 14.3% lower (347,000 fewer workers) than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. This sharp fall in construction workers is... (2/n)
Given the impact of the poor weather on construction activity in 2024 Q1, especially outdoor construction activity, 2024 Q2 may see a degree catch-up activity, although note that... (2/n)
In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were also 34.0% lower than the recent peak in 2022 Q2 although note that this recent peak for starts was an artificial peak boosted by house builders getting ahead of the building regulations changes... (2/n)
... & the 25.2% annual increase in UK construction materials prices in April 2022 compares with 24.5% in March & the recent peak of 23.7% in October 2021 (when there were materials availability issues) & it is worth noting that, firstly,... 
... Looking over the longer-term, Lee Rowley is also the 20th Construction Minister in the last 20 years, averaging 1 every 13 months. The lack of stability in the position is a long-term problem but it has clearly got worse in the last 5 years...
Looking across the sectors, the main contributors to the 1.6% fall in total construction output in July were private housing (-7.5%) & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) whilst the largest rise was in industrial (warehouses)...
... & note govt's terrible record of unrealistic announcements on retrofit & failing to deliver. e.g. With the Green Deal govt announced an ambition to retrofit 14 million homes & only 14,000 households used it... 
... as a more appropriate reference point construction output in April 2021 was 0.4% lower than in January 2020, pre-Covid-19 so it remains a 'V'-shaped recovery for construction output so far compared with a 'W'-shaped recovery for UK GDP... 
... note some very important caveats. These are inappropriate reference points given that 2020 Q4 was distorted (artificially high) due to stockpiling & 2020 Q1 was distorted (artificially low) due to an impact from initial lockdowns...
... & interestingly, male construction employment continued to fall in 2021 Q1 (by 10,717 vs Q4 & 180,237 vs 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19) & this was offset by a rise in female employment in 2021 Q1 of 25,534 (9.0%) vs Q4 & 25,808 (9.1%) vs 2019 Q4... 
... On a monthly basis, construction output in March 2021 was 5.8% higher than rain-affected February with increases in almost every construction sector & the largest rises public housing (+16.7%), private housing (+9.4%) & private housing rm&i (+7.7%) whilst...
Construction output in February 2021 rose by 1.6% compared with January as activity picked up after the usual Winter slowdown but growth was affected by persistent rain affecting outdoor site activity so expect significant growth in March as well.
... The 0.9% monthly rise in construction activity during January 2021 (was after a 2.9% fall in December &) was mainly driven by growth in public housing repair, maintenance & improvement (cladding remediation), commercial & infrastructure...