📖 New publication 📖
It's been almost 100 days since Russia invaded 🇺🇦. In this new paper, @IlkeToygur & I look back at the EU's "modus operandi". We advocate for a more ambitious EU, rather than one that will put unity above everything else./1 epc.eu/en/Publication…
The last #EUCO summit was a wonderful example of how in the EU unity prevails over ambition. After weeks of blockage, we finally have an oil embargo, but only for 75% of Russian oil, and with a temporary exemption for pipeline oil./2
We start on a positive note: Both the COVID-19 pandemic & the Russian invasion revealed that the EU institutions & leaders are capable of managing crises swiftly and decisively. The EU could use this moment of change to increase its ambition & move European integration forward./3
What is needed now is not black and white thinking, but rather an explorative mood: EU leaders should look at all the options on the table to become more ambitious. Whether it is Treaty changes or differentiated integration./4
Moving forward, the EU will have to consider the shifting positions and alliances of EU members:
➡️A growing rift between 🇵🇱 &🇭🇺 (👀#RoL);
➡️ A more important role for CEE countries;
➡️ The raised profile of Nordic & Baltic countries./5
We outlined 5 areas for progress in the coming months:
1⃣ economic governance - e.g. a new recovery package & a reform of the fiscal rules;
2⃣security and defense - with improved EU–NATO cooperation & a stronger ‘European pillar’./6
3⃣energy policy - reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels, ensuring low energy prices & climate targets;
4⃣enlargement & neighbourhood policy - rethinking its aims & creating options for countries that are unlikely to become EU members in the near future./7
5⃣rule of law, to safeguard the Union's values 'at home' rather than sacrifice them for the sake of unity.
💡Above all, the EU should avoid returning to the "status quo ante" - we live in a new era, which in turn requires more ambitious politics from European leaders./8
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After yesterday’s 1st round in the 🇫🇷 election, some takeaways on the campaign, results & what to expect next. A relatively long 🧵, as there is a lot to unpack. /1
First, on the results: 1st round shows Macron as frontrunner. But do not interpret this as a safe win for him in the 2nd round. 33% voted for far-right candidates, 26% for far-left, which brings “extreme” vote in France to over 50% in total. This is worrying. (@lemondefr) /2
2nd round will take place on 24.04. Polls vary between 45:55 & 49:51 for Macron, but it very much depends on Mélenchon voters (22% in 1st round). Several candidates (Pécresse, Hidalgo, Jadot) called for a Macron vote - except Eric Zemmour, who endorsed Le Pen. (@franceinfo) /3
Amid all the hustle and bustle, it's hard to keep track of what actually happened yesterday in Brussels. Here are some takeaways from the diplomatic showdown (NATO, G7, EUCO) including @POTUS attendance & @ZelenskyyUa speeches. A 🧵 /1
Second, NATO news: NATO agreed on 4 new battlegroups on its "Eastern flank". In total, 40,000 soldiers stationed next to the border. More resources will be spent to prevent cyberattacks & to prepare for potential biological & chemical attacks./3 nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
My two cents on the latest EU RoL. I expected to write about the report's content, but ended up doing a political analysis of where we stand - bc in the end, the report can be a brilliant analysis, beautifully written and very thorough, the question is what we do with it. /1
First, let me emphasise that this is a positive development. The European Commission recognises the relevance of Rule of Law, analysing the situation in all EU27. Glass half full, but it could have been different. It is a first step in the right direction. /2
The annual report creates the evidence needed to assess the RoL situation. We already had ample information on some EU MS (heads up to the EP & CoE), but not on all - this EU27 report allows to say “we looked at everyone the same way”. Evidence is always good start for PM. /3
3) @EU2020DE is negotiating an "anti-corruption clause" for the recovery fund, trying to get around Hungary and Poland's rejection of a RoL mechanism that would sanction countries breaching EU values more broadly. I hope this won't be watered down any further. @MiRo_SPD
A relatively niche but crucial area in which EU really need to create a common framework: TAXES. I have experienced first-hand how incredibly old-school and uncoordinated European tax regimes are - and how utterly contradictory it is with freedom of movement. A thread. /1
Everyone knows, there are no common tax rules in the EU (beware, it's nat. sovereignty!) This means that despite freedom of movement, it is difficult to understand under which tax regime one falls, e.g. when someone has different incomes from two different EU member states. /2
An example: Belgium and Germany have signed a tax treaty in 1967 (!), which has been slightly amended still - but most of the treaty still remains valid until now. No need to mention that the labour market, jobs and work environments have *slightly* changed since then. /3
Back from holidays and lost in translation? Here's a quick overview of what happened in EU politics when you all where enjoying rosé on the Côte d'Azur, Italian pasta or simply walks in the countryside.
COVID-19 is still going strong - local outbreaks & rising infection rates are worrisome. But incomprehensible and ever-changing rules for quarantine and testing are not helping either (#colourcodes). EU countries can do better than this.
This summer, Brussels discovered a neighbouring country called Belarus and the fact that Lukashenka is a dictator since 1994 (better late than never?) The all-female opposition & protesters show incredible courage. Let's hope EU leaders will not play-act their support.