Jake Wurzak Profile picture
Jun 1 4 tweets 2 min read
The yield curve is wrong more than it is right. 📈 Yet many banks nowadays are requiring rate caps on loans which in this volatile market are incredibly expensive. 👇🏻

wsj.com/articles/risin…
Important to note that the cap really only protects against a rate rise above the curve, which is even a lower probability event than the curve itself.

At some point investors need to underwrite risks in terms of probabilities and be prepared for swings.
Swing can go multiple ways - huge profits or capital calls… however if you are buying at a cap rate lower than your interest rate, the swing for you can only really go one way.

That’s negative leverage.

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More from @JWurzak

Jul 9
Brokers can’t hurt you by doing nothing, but they can hurt you by doing something.

Important to show respect both ways, it’s never just one deal, if both broker and buyer are@committed it could be a lifetime of deals.

A short story. 🧵
My firm was recently bidding on a deal. Both sides were highly sophisticated and had conviction.

The negotiation escalated to high stakes. Strategy and emotion were on high alert 🚨.
At some point during the negotiation emotions took the lead and some tension emerged between the broker and me and my firm.

One of the hardest job of a broker is to defuse situations and keep the focus on deal progress.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 9
It’s hard to find deals.

It’s harder to find deals worth doing.

It’s even harder getting a deal done.

The beauty of real estate, particularly hospitality, is that if you are willing to work at it and put in the time then you can out grind your competitors.

#Discipline👇🏻
The opposite is also true.

It’s easy when you buy in a weak market.

It’s easier when you overpay.

It’s even easier when you allow a seller to shift all their risk to you.
Profits are not guaranteed. It just doesn’t always go up.

If you give up too much upside at the BUY 💰 you may never make it back.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 3
We recently broke ground on a $60 million hotel and retail development in downtown St. Pete Florida. It’s also an OZ which is a bonus 💰!

Building a hotel is hard work. If you do it right you can compound your basis.

We have made some mistakes along the way and learned. A 🧵👇🏻
1. If you are not a hotel developer, partner with one. Not only will they save you from 🤯 but most banks will not lend without an experienced hotel developer and operator on the team.
2. Hire the project design team from the start , that includes interior design and related consultants and don’t rely on GC pricing if they are pricing at least 100% DD drawings.

Everyone assumes different things especially contractors 😉.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 27
Between 2020 and 2021 my firm completed 9 preferred equity transactions in the hospitality space.

given the recent volatility in the debt market and the macro economy I think there may be an opportunity to do some more of this investing now.

Some reasons why. 🧵
Hospitality has had an amazing recovery, some assets quicker than other but there is strength going fwd

1. On floating rate investments cash flows are reduced as a result of increased debt payments. Could be double in many cases.

That cash flow may have been needed for capex.
2. Many loans are coming due and an extension will require a debt service reserve or pay down. Capital is needed for both.

In some markets optimal time to sell an asset will be ‘23 , ‘24. Capital may be needed to get there.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
We have a deal under contract to acquire a $40mm hotel.

For the first time in our due diligence process we hired a forensic accountant to review the financials.

There is a huge bump in T12 NOI from YE NOI , we want to b sure it’s real.

This was a great idea! 🧵
When buying a hotel your are buying the real estate , not the operating business, but you need to verify the business because in hotels there are no long term leases.
Our team is very accustomed to analyzing operating data however we believe in due diligence it makes sense to bring in a forensic accountant.

The forensic accountant will see things my team may miss.

He is looking for irregularities, differences between related documents.
Read 5 tweets

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