Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #investing

Most recents (24)


Global Recession (1986-88)
Market Fall 40.8%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs 199.5%⬆️

Gulf War/India Fiscal Crises (1990-91)
Market Fall 39.3%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs 320.5%⬆️

Harshad Mehta Scam (1992-93)
Market Fall - 56.4%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs - 90.2%⬆️
Stock Market Stumble (1994-96)
Market Fall 41.6%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs 73.8%⬆️

97 Market Meltdown (1997-98)
Market Fall 40.5%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs 11.7%⬆️

Dot-Com Bubble (2000-01)
Market Fall 57.1%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs 110.6%⬆️
Central Election Results (2004)
Market Fall - 32.4%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs - 238.3%⬆️

High Inflation (2006)
Market Fall - 30.6%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs - 73.2%⬆️

Financial Crises (2008)
Market Fall - 63.7%⬇️
Post Return 3Yrs - 124.6%⬆️
Read 4 tweets
warning: Long thread @Prashanth_Krish @dmuthuk
(applicable for long only style)

Occam’s razor, immutable laws, investments
Occam’s razor is a problem-solving principle (a guide / heuristic device) attributed to William of Ockham (c1287-1347). #pms #investing @Krishna49653296
The principle states that “Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily”. Over time it has been used by scientists, logicians and thinkers to choose between competing answers to a problem and has taken more understandable and unrelated forms like:
-if you have 2 explanations the 1 that requires the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct
-start with the simplest solution, and as you get more data, move to the next simplest
-the more assumptions you make the likelier you are wrong
-and my favorite “keep it simple”
Read 16 tweets

What Is the Federal Reserve System?
The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is the central bank of the United States. The 'Fed,' as it is commonly known, regulates the US🇺🇸monetary & financial system. #Money
@realDonaldTrump @GenFlynn…

Watch this excellent historical video that will clarify & answer this question! #MoneyForThePeople #FederalReserveSystem #banks

ThanQ 🙌 ColdFusion >UTube
@realDonaldTrump @GenFlynn

Note u're choice. Are u in agreement? Why / why not?
Read 11 tweets
1/ I've been having a few conversations with people in #VC about the denominator problem and I wanted to share this bit of math to put things in perspective:
If you run a $1B endowment, you may have a 15% #PrivateEquity target . . .
2/ So that means you're looking to have $150M in NAV of private holdings . . . and on top of that, you've got undrawn commitments of another 50 cents to $1.50 for every dollar of NAV depending on your positioning ands assumptions
3/ An old rule of thumb says that you should have $1 of undrawn for every $1 of NAV, but Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander wrote a great paper a while back that refined that thinking, although the rule of thumb still seems to work for most people
Read 10 tweets
1/ Is the stock market response to COVID-19 a once-in-a-generation mispricing? Has the pandemic really reduced the fundamental value of the US stock market on the order of 30%?

#coronavirus #covid19 #investing #stockmarket #behavioralfinance #socialecon #socialfinance
2/ I don’t know the answer, but there’s reason for suspicion. Suppose that rapidly-increasing social distancing policies and behaviors continue, along with increased testing and research on treatments.
3/ Some hard-hit countries are already getting the upper hand on their epidemics, which raises the hope that the US will also gain enough control in the coming months to start to limit the tragic consequences.
Read 26 tweets
@Chamath just dropped the 2019 @socialcapital annual letter.

It’s just as riveting as the 2018 letter.

I thoroughly enjoyed digging through it,

Here are key points and my notes in [ ]

Cc: @nlw @grummz @radigancarter

Thread…#investing #markets #entrepreneurship
1/ Social Capital has outperformed the S&P 500 for 2 years in row.

The 2018 and 2019 letters state different gross IRRs for the years 2011-2018…images below.

@chamath care to clarify?
2/ The Social Capital investment focus is healthcare, education and frontier tech biz like #space and #AI.

They’re closed to outside capital and are a tech holding company that wants to achieve meaningful impact in a complicated world.
Read 36 tweets
#investinglessons // Years of investing in the stock market has a special effect in humbling the investor and broadening his/her horizons like never before. When I first started out, I would have never bought a stock at its all time high ...
2) Regardless of how much I fancied its underlying business. Books that I had read ingrained me a desire to find “undervalued” companies, not “overpay”, & have a “margin of safety”. As a result, I picked many “undervalued” companies that were of poor quality.
3) These companies continued to stay “undervalued” for many years, lagging behind higher quality companies that continued to post even higher 52weeks highs. I ended paying huge opportunity costs in holding them despite my low entry price.
Read 7 tweets
#Investing in #Nigeria: What Should You Prioritize?

Anytime I teach about wealth, I give an important advice: If you don't know what to do with money, you will eventually lose it when you get it. 🧵
The time to design your life is ideally before you become wealthy. Writing down your priorities gives you a keen sense of focus when you finally blow. You don't lose your head or become confounded.
Regardless of what you choose to do with your wealth, here are five things I think you should prioritize:
Read 10 tweets
In every market cycle, value investors don't make money during the blow out phase.

When markets correct thereafter, value investors lose some money.

Then, when do value investors make money? What gives them higher returns?
#investing #valueinvesting
Most followers actually don't know the answers. In fact, many possibly even question if value investors actually make decent money. They expect returns to always show up in a linear, visible mode.

But where value investors focus upon, this can never happen. #investing #nifty 2/7
When you keenly follow a value investor without understanding his mindset, timeline & investment style , what happens?
It could lead to your own behaviour & weakness impacting far more than merit of the borrowed ideas.His strengths are not going to work for you. 3/7 #investing
Read 7 tweets
A #thread on the largest wealth transfer in history

This comes from the notes that I took in August when attending the Private Wealth Forum in Palm Beach this year

#wealthpreservation #wealthcreation #investing #familyoffice
- US$48 Trillion are going from Baby Boomers to Gen X and Millennials

“People worry more about not having enough money more than taxes” - Vincent Munno

- US$122+ Trillion in UNFUNDED liabilities (USA)

- 328 Million population (USA)
- 122 Million taxpayers
- 116 Million benefits recipients

This means that taxes MUST rise.
Read 9 tweets
1/ in the following thread I am going to show how issuing equity can cost dearly over time. Here’s $CAR.U initial IPO portfolio from 1997. Note that every building except for one is in the GTA. Total suite count is only 2,900 #reits #investing #realestate
2/ $CAR.U had a small portfolio by today’s standards, but there were only 8.723 mln shares outstanding in 1997. This means every 1000 shares got you 0.332 of an apartment suite...and that suite was “sweet” with 86% exposure to the GTA
3/ The suites were appraised at that time at an eye-popping 8.8% cap-rate. Rent growth was lower then and the REITs average debt cost was 6.48%
Read 14 tweets
Hello everyone,
Initially, I had no intention of writing this note.
Before we continue...I hope everyone understands that we do not provide any advisory
services. All information is only for educational
purpose and not investment advice.
2) Nifty from its all-time high of around 12000 has only come down to somewhere around 10800,
correction of only about 10%.
I strongly believe market movements of less than 20% do not even deserve a comment.
3) When people say, “ There is blood on the streets, why don’t you comment on the market ?”
All I can think of replying is, “There is no blood on the street, there might be blood only in your
portfolio :p ”. Because you might have bought a lot of small-cap at a PE ratio of 100.
Read 46 tweets
0/ I've sat on this post idea for a long time but 4,200 words later here's "The Antidote to Getting a VC Job: 10 Prescriptions for Aspiring Investors". TLDR summary in this thread 👇🏾
Here are 10 prescriptions (I originally called them commandments but that felt too authoritative!) for people trying to get into #VC or #tech #investing

1/ Don’t ask for help. Be the helper.
2/ Don’t cold contact. Build relationships.
Read 13 tweets
After having read so much about how Amazon does not really lose money but constantly grows without reporting too much of a profit, I decided to finally take a dive into its financials over the last 15 years. In only about 20 minutes, my mind is already blown. 1/n #amazon
I started at 2003. Their financial statements start with cash flows. I'm not sure if that's the US GAAP convention but if it isn't, right out of the gate it says something about management's priorities. 2/n
In 2003, Amazon reported a net income of $35m. But operating cash flows of an incredible $392m. Two important bits stand out for me in there. Stock based comp. of $87.7m and an increase in accounts payables of $167m. That's ~$254m of cash you get to expense. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Alright let's get this through.
My key takeaways from the latest @OwnMarket AMA, and why they make me more bullish than before.

18 tweets so stay focused. 😉

Let's go:

$CHX #STO #securitytokens #Blockchain #Crypto #Bitcoin #Exchanges #gaming #mobilegames #ETH #investing
Let's start with the big one. The first STO (project Crowd) is now confirmed to launch its raise in September, this will be accompanied with a huge marketing campaign.
Remember for every #STO, $CHX gets locked away depending on the total raise.
1 month to go 😎
OWN now has officially signed a cooperation with Raiffeisen Bank who will support them in the STO space and also with their upcoming Stock exchange.
This is an impressive bank with over 2 million customers which has received several "best bank" Awards. #banking #crypto $CHX
Read 18 tweets
1) On 25 July, Tribeca's Commodity Trading Specialist Guy Keller gave an excellent presentation outlining their #bullish #Investment case for #Uranium, expecting to increase their exposure to #U3O8 sector over rest of 2019 as #nuclear demand grows...…
2) Summary: drivers for higher #uranium prices include growing #demand for #nuclear #energy, #China reactor builds, recent #U3O8 supply cuts & long lead times to recover, mines unprofitable without 50% U price rise, inventories down as contracts roll off, 232 uncertainty gone...
3) #Uranium will play an increasingly important role in global supply of clean, stable, #nuclear base-load power generation given today's focus on environmental improvement amid rising global demand for #CarbonFree low emissions #electricity...
Read 17 tweets
New to the stock market? Get started with this primer!

Road to Financial Freedom:…

#wealth #financialplanning #WealthManagement #freedom

For investing, I follow Mark Minervini's trend template / methodology to identify Superperformance stocks. Read his books:

Trade like a Stock Market Wizard:…

Think & Trade Like a Champion:…

#investing #superperformance #stocks 2/n
The screener I use to identify stocks that satisfy @markminervini 's trend template:…

You also need to manually check for
1. Volatility contractions - Price, Time and Volume
2. Number of Stage-2 bases < 3
3. Magnitude of previous Stage-4 fall < 50%

Read 6 tweets
is market fairly valued or not?
understanding few basic concepts
The earnings that we generally expect to grow by 14-15% every year, assuming the real growth of GDP to be 8% and inflation to be 6%.
In the last 4-5 yrs the GDP growth has disappointed. (1/n)
That does not mean we believe the growth rate expected in future should be lowered, we still believe based on RBI and govt comments that India is a country where to employ the large number of people that join the workforce every year, we need 8% real GDP growth and (2/n)
Read 21 tweets
To learn #swimming, one need to be comfortable going subcutaneous. One needs to be comfortable breathing out under water. Until one does that once can't swim properly.
It's part of the swimming process.
1) Breathe in outside
2) take your face under water breathe out gradually
3) use your hands & legs to propel forward
4) pull your face outside water
5) Repeat
Most green horns focus on other things, not doing step 2 for the fear of drowning. Ironically, it is the step 2 which will help them the most in not drowning and swimming efficiently.
Read 5 tweets
If a person cares to get the right advice early in his #investing journey, outcomes will be far superior.

Where outcomes are poor or ordinary, the quality of #advice is the most likely cause.

Investors unduly worry about returns, even when quality of investing is decent. 1/5
Every step of my #investing journey, I received #GoodAdvice & #value everything I was taught. To this day, I seek constantly advice from the wiser. What I get, I freely give. As I learn, I teach. I rarely forget what was taught from day1, though my early Gurus are no more. 2/5
The early years are crucial. Starting with virtually nothing, we need to get #GoodAdvice, wise counsel & emotional support. From a few 1000s to one's first Lakh is the toughest part. From a lakh to a million is not easy either. Scale must be carefully sought. Most fail here. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Are you ready to scale up your real estate business for Good?

1. Start small - 1 unit of a not too expensive property option and put it to work

2. Reinvest the yield/profit to a bigger opportunity. Bigger could mean a different environment or yield opportunity

3. Switch into multi unit opportunities- could be residential or retail. Controlling more units means more profits with literally the same effort.

4. Upgrade into owning your own building or property fully. This is easier and more viable with mixed use commercial units.
Because you can now have your offices within the building at almost no cost to you.

If you choose to do same with residential units, it might be worthwhile to also live in one of the units

Read 3 tweets
I am always fascinated by those pithy & witty one liners which pack so much meaning in them.

In this thread I will share some of my favorite #quotes on #investing
Read, Ponder!

1. "If you don’t know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out" - Adam Smith
2) “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” — Robert G. Allen

#quotes #investing
3. " Eagles don't flock" - H. Ross Perot

Just three words but conveys so much......

Read 21 tweets
[thread] The real reason why Indian real estate is suffering: by @babablahblah_

India's youth does not want to buy a house. period
@babablahblah_ 1/ The younger generations (read millennials) don't see why they should make a 30+ year commitment to a single investment which end up rooting them to a single location.
@babablahblah_ 2/ It's hard to justify to them why they should invest money into real estate (which is highly complex and illiquid) instead of buying mutual funds or investing into SIPs (which are easy to understand, can be traded with an app and provide instant liquidity).
Read 9 tweets

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