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Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
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Jun 1 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
#JOLTS 11.4 million
Manufacturing JOLTS back up again!
Construction JOLTS back up again.
Those pesky robots and immigrants didn't take all the jobs. ๐Ÿคจ
No country has a Dorian Gray Labor Market. ๐Ÿ˜Ž
Back when #Jolts was 7,000,000 calling for 10,000,000 in 2021 ๐Ÿ˜‰

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More from @LoganMohtashami

Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 2
@Lava_Flow2 @JackMonero @notabigdeal111 @RealWillyBot The majority of people who buy homes live in them, and the net seller is usually a buyer as well. Their DPI levels are so low that selling to rent doesn't make sense. This is why we have had an inventory issue post-2010. Image
@Lava_Flow2 @JackMonero @notabigdeal111 @RealWillyBot This is a major problem Image
@Lava_Flow2 @JackMonero @notabigdeal111 @RealWillyBot This is the only check we have now. We need the economy to stay firm to keep yields up Image
Read 4 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 2
๐Ÿ˜‰
None of the homeowners had any issues with their loans before Covid-19. By October of 2020 most people who made over 60K got their jobs back, the entire Forbearance Crash Bro movement was fun to watch though ๐Ÿ˜‰
So you can understand why in September of 2020, I created the phrase Forbearance Crash Bros. The dudes were not going to shut up about Forbearance in 2020/2021 housingwire.com/articles/end-oโ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 2
This has been one of my main talking points for years and the reason I knew the Forbearance Crash Bros would fail so badly. However, fico scores are the second positive aspect of lending. The first is that we didn't have any exotic loan debt destructures post-2010. Image
Fixed debt cost vs. rising wages, 3 refinance waves post-2010, cash flow got better and better. Dear Lord, how did so many people miss this story for 11 years?
They didn't read, and when you don't read, you miss things ๐Ÿ˜‰ Image
Then the crazy half of our society kept saying it was 2008 all over again! 2012-2022 ๐Ÿ˜‚
So cute, misguided, but adorable.
First, it was never 2008; it was 2005; second, we never had the credit stress from 2005 to 2008. See, this reading thing is a positive, not a negative. ๐Ÿค“ Image
Read 4 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 2
It's still a savagely unhealthy housing market until we get inventory back to 1.52-1.93 million ๐Ÿ˜‰ Image
๐Ÿ˜ speak of the ๐Ÿ˜ˆ and he shall appear, I didn't know this was there before I tweeted ๐Ÿ˜‡ Image
Now that we are in June 2022! So much price damage was done in such a short time. Our first real inventory crisis and just look at that action ๐Ÿซฃ๐Ÿ˜ฑ Image
Read 11 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 1
Purchase application data update.
Down 1% Week to Week.
Down 14% Year over Year.
4-week moving average - 13.25% YoY
Trending still 4.75% - 8.75% better than I thought it would have with rates this high on a 4WMA.
The comps will get more challenging starting in October.
As you can see with the blue line, ๐Ÿ˜‰We are back to 2009 levels!
Inventory, on the other hand, not so much!
If it kills me, I will get you to focus on the total inventory data properly. Since anyone with vision skills can see, we never had the credit boom of 2002-2005. ๐Ÿคจ
You can now understand the extreme growth in prices vs. the housing bubble years that ran higher with credit demand. This wasn't the case this time around; this was more of a supply story. We got caught and paid the price for it. ๐Ÿคจ
Read 11 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
May 31
2 Rules, Folks! ๐Ÿ˜‰
We don't talk about Fight Club!
We don't use the monthly supply data for new homes for the existing home sales market, which is 2.2 months today.
Plus the new home supply, 6.0 months of that are homes they haven't started to build.
0.8 months are completed homes
2.2 months are homes under construction.
Read 5 tweets

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