Thread by @LahibHigel

🧵 Our newly published @Crisisgroup report on #Sinjar explains why the October 2020 Sinjar agreement has failed to stabilise the district, and why Sinjar remains a flashpoint years after Iraqi and Kurdish forces liberated it from ISIS.
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Nearly two years after Baghdad and Erbil signed the Sinjar agreement, the security situation remains precarious and the district lacks an authorised administration that can carry out public services.

Turkish airstrikes against the PKK and the affiliated Yazidi YBŞ have increased over the last year. Meanwhile, the Iraqi army has increased its presence in the district. In early May, army clashes with the YBŞ displaced thousands.

Around 70% of Sinjar's population are still displaced 8 years after ISIS' genocidal campaign against the Yazidis, as well as some Sunni Arab and Kurdish families. Many fear going back due to the proliferation of armed groups and lack of public services.

The Sinjar agreement's goal to facilitate IDP return is yet to be achieved. Its main provisions, to appoint a new mayor and establish a new local police force, are largely unimplemented due to rejection by local armed groups.

The YBŞ and other local armed actors, including some Hashd groups, claim that the agreement is rigged against them. Meanwhile, Turkey expects the elimination of any PKK presence in the district under the agreement.

The agreement can be fully implemented only if Baghdad and Erbil manage to shore up local buy-in. They should do so by seeking wider community consultation and clearly distinguish the YBŞ from the PKK, while embarking on a longer-term DDR plan with international support.