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Jun 3 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
The reaction to @Tobias_Ellwood's remarks on the single market - from both the Tories and Labour - is quite something. 1/11
On the Tory side, the remarks are reported to have raised the PM's spirits, and to have boosted the chances of surviving a VONC.

I don't see that at all. 2/11
Support for the single market within the Tory Party (members and MPs) is VERY LOW. Ellwood's position is vanishingly unlikely to gain support.

I would predict that EVERY contender for the leadership will lend their strong support to this Brexit. 3/11
There may be differences re the NI Protocol, but, with or without PM Johnson, the Tory Party is firmly set on a sovereignty-first Brexit with the UK free from EU (and bearing the huge costs of being outside the single market). 4/11
I haven't seen and heard any reaction from the Labour leadership. Opinion on twitter seems divided. Some want to see the Party move towards Ellwood's stated position; others to leave the Tories to fight it out. 5/11
My view is that Ellwood's comment poses a challenge for Labour. It's policy, 'to make Brexit work', has a certain strategic ambiguity about it, and, perhaps, enables the Party to focus on other issues. 6/11
But... as per the above, the Tories are not going to have a significant fight about Brexit. Ellwood's views will be shown to be marginal in the Party. The Brexit policy will be reaffirmed. 7/
And... while Ellwood's views are marginal in the Tory Party, they are NOT marginal in the country. Levels of dissatisfaction at this Brexit are rising. We are in the midst of a big economic crisis. 4% added to GDP would help... a lot. 8/
There is, post #Partygate, a sense that this is a tired Govt, out of touch with people's concerns. Labour wants to position itself as a Party which will use its power to act to improve people's lives. 9/
Trade policy and relations with the EU, are by no means everything. But they are significant. Labour may yet be able to win a GE without staking out a distinctive position in those areas. 10/
But, if it is serious about acting to improve people's lives, and reflecting people's concerns, it needs to do more than parrot slogans about Brexit, and make decisions about the extent to which it wants to cooperate with the EU. 11/11

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More from @syrpis

Phil Syrpis Profile picture
Jun 3
A simple way of thinking about Govt policy is that it is about a) economic policy - the size of the pie; and b) social policy - the distribution of the slices.

This is an attempt to look at the Govt's 'levelling up policy', and Labour's response, through that lens. 1/9
The traditional left/right economic divide is easy to sketch.

The right tend to focus on economic policy (the size of the pie), the left on social policy (the distribution of the slices). 2/
The right believe that as the size of the pie increases, via the operation of the market, so too will the size of the slices. The left believe in state intervention to ensure that happens. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
May 30
It has been 6 days since the Sue Gray report landed. Way back then, the humble PM said he took full responsibility.

Having been asked not to pass judgement or comment while we awaited the 'full facts', we were, immediately asked to move on.

How's that been going? 🧵1/8
First, #partygate is going nowhere. Why? Because the PM is, again, failing to take responsibility.

We've had more party allegations (Sue Gray's mandate only ever involved investigating parties on a list of dates); met with more obfuscation. 2/8
We've had allegations about editing the Sue Gray report, and a host of questions about the role of the Met Police.

The PM and No 10 are again, failing to provide any clarity; only increasing suspicions. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
May 25
My 'hot takes' on the Sue Gray report, the PM's statement in the Commons, and the PM's future. 1/
(The report itself is here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
First, we should not forget the terms of reference. Sue Gray was asked to establish a general understanding of the nature of the gatherings in scope (see paras 13-17).

Her task was NOT to establish whether the law was broken, nor whether the House was misled. 2/
Second, the detail of the various events which were the subject of the investigation (she notes at para 12 that it is possible that others occurred) matters.

It, like the photos we saw earlier in the week, helps to establish a narrative around what went on. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
May 22
I've been thinking about the (new) educational divide in politics and the role of Universities and the Govt. I might have the beginnings of a theory. 1/9
The common account is that the reason graduates are strongly hostile to the Govt is that students are somehow brainwashed by their 'leftie' lecturers, and that Universities need to be shaken up in order to restore some sort of balance. 2/9
Unsurprisingly, I don't subscribe to that account.

What I think might instead be happening is based on the fact that Universities aim to foster a particular form of 'critical thinking' (with eg the close interrogation of arguments in the search for meaning and truth). 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
May 20
A look at the NI Protocol from a slightly different perspective; looking to see where solutions can be found, and where positions need to be clarified. Long 🧵 - sorry. 1/17
There are two separate questions, which need to be distinguished.

The first question is, *to the extent that there needs to be a border between the UK and EU*, where should that border go? 2/
As I read it, the EU (certainly) and the UK Govt (almost certainly) *agree* that the border should be in the Irish Sea and not across Ireland. The problem here, is the position of the DUP. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
May 15
It is difficult to keep track of the shape-shifting arguments of the UK Govt on the NI Protocol (I've been listening to Frost, Kwarteng and Burns).

There are several strands which come up. The Govt is all too rarely interrogated about the detail. 1/13 🧵
The most obvious point is that the core problem - that there now need to be border checks between the UK (or GB) and the EU - is caused not by the Protocol, but by this Brexit. 2/
The Govt urges the EU to be imaginative and flexible. It should be confronted with the reality that a different approach to Brexit - one which did not insist on divergence for divergence's sake - would reduce the need for border checks, and 'de-dramatise' the border issues. 3/
Read 15 tweets

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