Here is another episode of the never ending launch price/cost saga, starring @momentusspace: I am surprised that I have not yet seen any commentary on their appreciation of the price of access to orbit as shown in the May 2022 investor presentation. static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_pre… 1/
Beyond the fact that I don't know what is their basis for calculations, in particular how they allocate the cost of "own propulsion" to the launch, considering that the propulsion systems serves other functions, I gather from this that 15k$/kg is their price tag? 2/
So the "last mile" service actually applies a factor 3 to the baseline rideshare price on #SpaceX? I fail to see the viability of this model, but maybe it is still too early (also considering that #Vigoride didn't do very well so far: spacenews.com/momentus-attem…) 3/
Just for the sake of the discussion, here is my own appreciation of launch prices/costs. (hairsplitters, please note that I consider launch cost from the customer perspective, so it is the equivalent of price) - this slide is from my lecture on the space economy 4/
And BTW, the infamous #Stratistics did it again: a very creative assessment of the space transportation market. I don't know where these guys source their data from, but come on... 2020 TAM >15B$? And MEO>GEO? Here are my own values for comparison. 5/end

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More from @LionnetPierre

May 21
I thought I was the only using the burger analogy to explain space economics (scientificamerican.com/article/spacex…), well no: this report finds that a spaceport has an economic impact comparable to a couple of fast food restaurants. 1/
This was an independent assessment of the economic impact of a vertical launch site in Michigan, very much applicable to the spaceport project in Camden (Ga) that is facing a successful opposition from the locals. 2/ thecurrentga.org/2022/02/08/cam…
thecurrentga.org/2022/05/10/wha…
The study notably analyses how the projected 'demand' for spaceports forecast in 2018-2020 will not materialise, and will leave new spaceports without a business. 3/
scribd.com/document/57283…
Read 14 tweets
May 12
Quite some info here on @VirginOrbit and #launcherone to feed the never ending saga of launch costs reduction. Is it happening? is it supporting the 'smallsat revolution'? is it 'democratising' space and making it 'accessible to everyone'? 1/
First we read that the January 2022 launch yielded 2.1M$. With a total mass launched of less than 30kg, for 6 cubesats deployed (according to @planet4589 here: planet4589.org/space/gcat/dat…) that is a whopping >70k$/kg to orbit. Hardly a bargain. 2/
If that weren't enough, even at that price $VORB state they can't cover their costs for the next launches “It is probable for five of these launch service agreements that the costs to provide the service will exceed the firm fixed price of each launch” @VirginOrbit says 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jan 16
Starlink: 2000 satellites launched (and >10% already decommissioned). Why isn't #SpaceX accelerating the deployment? What is preventing it? Why is it not happening? I would have expected a higher frequency Starlink launch rate at this point (40-50 launches/year at least). 1/
I know that this is not a popular opinion, but I can only see two (non mutually exclusive) reasons for this: 1) Falcon9 is too expensive; 2) Falcon9 turnaround time is too long. Tu put it short: it is not as effective as required. 2/
In a recent talk with Lex Fridman @elonmusk said: "the upper stage is at least 10M$" & "the booster is not as rapidly and completely reusable as we'd like" ... "the minimum marginal cost not counting overhead per flight is on the order of 15 to 20M$" 3/
Read 24 tweets
Jan 11
"ESA Reignites Space-based Solar Power Research" shar.es/aWEETb via @spacecom - But does ESA considers a comprehensive study to assess the global impact of the large scale launch activity required to support the deployment of large solar power facilities in orbit? 1/
I attended most of the ESA workshop on solar Power Satellites mentioned in the article, and the question of the carbon/climate/energy footprint of launch was not a headline topic and was not addressed. For a "net zero" approach this seemed very incomplete to me. 2/
For instance, a baseline (very optimistic) design for a 2GW power unit in orbit would require the deployment of >2000 tons in GEO. That's about 300 Ariane5 launches just for the deployment, probably exceeding a few million tons of CO2? 3/ fnc.co.uk/discover-fraze…
Read 9 tweets
Dec 20, 2021
After seeing so many "artistic" space market forecasts lying around, and considering that this art form seems not so difficult, I decided to try my hand at it with a forecast on constellations markets. Here is my step by step tutorial applied to real data. 1/
But first the key findings. If ALL constellations announced today eventually secure the funding to deploy in full, the total (additional) satellite demand would be between 40 and 60 B$/year, and the launch demand would be 8B$/year. There would be >16000 sats launched per year. 2/ ImageImage
In other words if ALL the announced constellations eventually happen the total launch market value would double in the next decade, and the value of the satellite market would increase by 50-70%. But is this a credible prediction? 3/
Read 25 tweets

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