Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

Happy Primary Night! I'll be up for a while on my flight so I'll do a bit of tweeting. Just don't expect me to still be up when CA starts reporting in 3 1/2 hours!

MS & NJ close their polls at 8pm ET. SD closes polls in the CTZ then, but a lot of the state closes at 9.

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I'm looking at MS 4, where incumbent Steve Palazzo is facing 6 challenger, four of whom have the money to be serious. A bit under 1/2 the total vote will come from the Gulf Coast, and 3 of the 4 serious contenders to Palazzo come from there.

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Watch Jackson and Hancock Counties - the challengers need to hold Palazzo well under 50% in their Home Counties to have a shot at forcing a runoff. Then watch Harrison, the county that will cast the most votes. If Palazzo is well under 50% here, watch the battle for 2d.

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In NJ I am watching the GOP races in NJ 5 and 7 and the Dem race in NJ 10. NJ 5 is a Biden +12.5 seat held by Josh Gottheimer that should be on the cusp of vulnerability if Biden's #s stay pathetically low.

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NJ 7 is Dem Tom Malinowski's seat but 2020 nominee Tom Kean should flip it if he's the nominee, which he should be.

NJ 10 is the Newark seat long held by Donald Payne. He should win but progressive Imani Oakley has raised enough to run a credible campaign.

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I'll also be watching the GOP race for SD AL. Incumbent Dusty Johnson is being challenged from the right by state Rep Taffy Howard. Howard has received about 1/2 million in outside help from Drain The Swamp PAC and it's worth watching to see if that's hurt Johnson.

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We'll see if I've got the energy to tweet much after that given that I'll still have hours to go before I hit my final destination. To tweet or not to tweet, that is the question! Or perhaps the question is whether I will be assimilated into the Borgen collective.

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The polls are closed in NJ and MS, so here we go!

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Time to go to the Richard J. Daley Plaza!

That's where they got that Picasso!

Yep.

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The counting is slow, so let's switch movies.

tenor.com/uO1e.gif

First result in MS 4 from tiny Stone County. Steve Palazzo at only 38%. Loads to come, but bad sign for the incumbent.

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IA closes at 9. I'll be looking at the GOP primary in IA 3, where Nicole Hasso is running against State Sen. Zach Nunn. Winner starts as the big favorite against Dem inc. Cindy Axne given the national trends and the fact the 2020 Prez race was basically even here.

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Two more small counties in MS 4. Palazzo not over 50% in any of them yet. Still extremely early and no large counties reporting.

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Polls are now closed in SD and IA. Hopefully they can count faster than the snails back east.

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Meanwhile, inc. GOP Rep. is losing to Michael Cassidy with about 6% in. Not a great sign but nothing from the big county, Rankin, which is a suburb of Jackson and where Guest cleaned up in his first primary in 2018.

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IT'S OV-AH! With 10% in, Donald Payne will easily win re-nomination. He leads progressive activist Imani Oakley 84-11.

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MS 4 update - it's clearly headed to a runoff as Palazzo only has 29% in early returns from Harrison County, one of the big 3 Gulf Coast counties and the only one a serious foe isn't from. He has 31.5% while Clay Wagner is 2d with 24%.

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Wagner is from Hancock County and 3d place Mike Ezell is from Jackson. Watch those two places to see who has the best shot at getting into the runoff.

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Not that there was any serious doubt, but Kristi Noem and Sen. John Thune are easily turning back challenges with 6% in. Johnson leads Howard 62-38.

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IT'S OV-AH! Tom Kean will easily capture the GOP nomination in NJ 7. He has 55.5% with 15% in and is winning every county. With no runoff requirement, he's in.

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MS 3 - Guest now has 44% with 13 % in. He's capturing clear majorities in the two counties neighboring Rankin that have reported some votes so far. I have to think he'll gain even more when it comes in. His margin there will largely determine whether this goes to a runoff.

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SD-AL - Johnson leads 61-39 with 9% in. Still nothing from the two largest counties, Minnehaha (Sioux Falls) and Pennington (Rapid City).

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IT'S OV-AH! St. Sen. Zach Nunn has won the GOP nomination in IA 3, destroying Nicole Hasso 71-20.

In the Dem race for IA Senate, Admiral Mike Franken is defeating former Rep. Abby Finkenauer by 58-37. He's leading in the large Dem counties in so far.

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MS 3 & 4 - In MS 4, it's still Palazzo-Wagner, but Ezell is beating Wagner everywhere but Harrison. This means the battle of the bases, Wagner's Hancock v Ezell's Jackson, will loom even larger.

MS 4 - Guest trails 48-42 with 21% in. Still no Rankin.

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Guest catching up on votes from another Jackson suburb, Madison County. He is getting 53% there. Again, Ranking should be big for him but the question is how big.

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IT'S OV-AH! SD AL - Johnson turns back the right-wing challenge from State Rep. Taffy Howard rather easily. He's leading 62-38 with over 20% in, and leads big in both large counties (Pennington and Minnehaha). Only losing two rural counties so far.

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MS 4 - Harrison is supposedly 95%+ in and Wagner lost by only 4 votes to Palazzo. Wagner now leads Ezell by 1,000 votes, but still nothing from their dueling base counties. Ezell needs a big win from Jackson to have a shot at finishing 2d and getting into the runoff.

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MS 3 - Guest now trails 49.8 to 43.7, but that gap will narrow as he's taking 59.7% in early returns from Rankin. He's getting clobbered in many rural areas, but he's gain back enough votes in the Jackson metro area to avoid losing outright.

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Polls are now closed in MT and NM! I'm looking at the GOP race in MT 1, where former Rep. and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is trying to go back to DC.

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MS 4 update - Wagner's home county, Hancock, is 95%+ in and he wins it with 39%. More importantly, Ezell doesn't get into the top 3, so Wagner now leads him by 2,200 votes. That will drop when Ezell's base, Jackson County, reports, but he'll need a huge win.

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MS 4 - And this is why I do the hard work to know where candidates' bases are! 80% of Jackson is now in and Mike Ezell is ahead of Clay Wagner by under 200 votes! He also swamped Wagner in the county just north of Jackson, George. Big edge now for Ezell to face Palazzo.

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NJ 5 - 2020 nominee Frank Pallotta leads Nick De Gregorio 56-38 with 11% in. Still nothing from the largest county, Bergen.

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MS 4 - The last big county to report, Forrest, just dropped and Ezell narrowly edges Wagner. The votes left to report are heavily tilted towards Ezell. Not calling it, but it's looking strong for a Palazzo-Ezell runoff.

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MT 1 - Potential big upset brewing! Ryan Zine is ahead by only 42-40 over former state Sen Al Olszewski with 31% in. Olszewski's base county, Flathead, hasn't reported and he's winning big in the counties bordering it. Flathead's pretty big and could propel Al into 1st.

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MS 4- IT'S OV-AH! All counties except Ezell's base, Jackson, are 95%+ in and Ezell holds a nearly 400 vote lead for 2d over Clay Wagner. That will grow when the last Jackson votes report. It's Palazzo-Ezell, the Jackson County Sheriff, in the runoff.

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I'm switching devices - bear with me as I navigate United Wifi!

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Back! NJ 5 - DeGregorio takes a narrow lead over Pallotta on Bergen results. Too close to call.

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MS 3 -Guest roars into his first lead of the night as Rankin (as I had said all night) delivers. He’s winning almost 69% there and now has 51.2%. There are still votes from Rankin, so if gets 69% there too he’s likely to avoid a runoff. Time will tell.

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Well I made it to 11, so it’s time for CA. Reminder: these are jungle primaries where the top 2 advance regardless of party. Should get significant results quickly from mail votes.

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MT 1 - Zinke’s lead grows as he leads in Missoula, but Al can still go ahead if he wins big in Flathead.

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NJ 5 - Pallotta regains a 900 vote lead as more votes from the non-Bergen counties report. Toss-up.

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Big error in MS 3 - the NYT has changed the votes in Rankin from 69% for Guest to 54%! Cassidy now leads and there’s no chance for Guest to avoid a runoff. Very small chance Cassidy can ride rural votes to a 50% win.

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That’s it for a while! I’ve got to get some sleep tonight. See you in a few hours!

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