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Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
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Jun 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Forbearance went from near 5,000,000 to under 500K today. The Forbearance Crash Bros were all really Anti-Central Bank Housing Bubble Boys 2.0 people; I just gave them a new name for 2020/2021

#RIP
The biggest reason this group failed is that they didn't read. Reading is a good thing, not a bad thing
housingwire.com/articles/end-o…
The quick version was that most people who made over 60K got their jobs back by October 2020, so Forbearance was going to collapse, and it was going to take time getting off the data line. This is why a credit risk profile blackguard could have helped 😉
And reading the data could have helped. Reading is such an essential part of acquiring knowledge. Youtube, not so much! 😇

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More from @LoganMohtashami

Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 8
Image
The big difference between renters and homeowners, owners' cash flow is much better, and they have the most enormous nominal consumer debt. 😇 Image
While owners have a low shelter cost, renters don't; they're being hit on all fronts. Fixed debt cost vs rising wages Image
Read 4 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 8
Purchase application data
down 7% week to week
down 21% year over year
4-week moving average down 16.5% year over year
We are getting closer to the range I thought we should be at on the 4-week MA 18%-22% declines.
The comps will get harder starting in October. Image
You know my thing, housing got savagely unhealthy, and the only way to create inventory is by higher rates. Image
The NAR total inventory data goes back to 1982; inventory is finally showing some year-over-year growth. Context is critical; we need to get back up between 1.52 and 1.93 million. That is plenty of inventory to have a regular market; days on the market will be higher then. Image
Read 8 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 8
It's crazy that so many people missed the housing data before Covid19 hit us. Purchase apps up to March 18th of 2020. These aren't even hard data lines to read either. Image
February data we got toward the end of March when Covid19 hit us, but very evident that housing was breaking on in demand before Covid19 came. Again we aren't talking about difficult data to read. The median sales price was up over 8% in this report too. Image
The monthly supply data was under 3.2 months back then! How do people miss such primary data lines Image
Read 7 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 7
Housing peaked in 2005, not 2008 🤨and if you read more of the report, you see this. 😇
Maybe, just maybe, it's the Gotham in me, but this doesn't look like 2006-2011 😉
Also, the credit stress data from 2005, 2006, 2007, (2008) say hi to everyone 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. It really doesn't apply to 2012-2022
Read 6 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 7
🤨
The Fed doesn't see recessionary data because the data is still expanding. They're staying the course
Maybe it's just a data nerd in me, but I don't remember any recession having positive real sales, production, and over 1,000,000 jobs created in the first few months.
So if you're using Q1 GDP, your recession call is based on positive sales, production, and creating jobs.
Be patient, Grasshoppers, be patient
Read 7 tweets
Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Jun 7
👍🏾
Recessionary data isn't hard to spot once it's there. The fact that people actually believed we were in a recession in 2022 is really social media America post-2008, as people always thought a recession was here. 😇
I would say create your own recession model and follow a discipline code, but that would mean you couldn't troll America on the web, so I am not holding my breath 😇
Read 6 tweets

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