Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 Profile picture
Jun 8, 2022 32 tweets 8 min read Read on X
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RSI divergence, morphed into an H&S on the divergent high, ST trendline broken now as well. Image
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round figure + invasion gap Image
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Update on the gasoline thread. Basically the RSI divergences have hit all assets one by one since the market started tightening in '21.

$2.80+ is clearly the next level on gasoline, which is also about where the war spike began. Note price had trended higher into that move. Image
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Step back on gasoline. Another inflection. ETF on left, continuous on right. I tend to know what's happening with each. Cancel out pandemic panic low, clear trendlines in play. Arguably has been biggest bull input last 6 weeks. Image
Always amazed how perfectly technical something can trade when the crowd is on the other side of the boat etc. Image
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$UGA breaking 200 dma as well Image
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Little early on that flag but still seems in play. Note RSI jumped over 50 for couple days max. Image

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More from @FusionptCapital

Feb 7, 2023
Feb 2022: Equal weighted $SPX 155, Federal Funds 0%

Feb 2023: Equal weighted $SPX 151, Federal Funds 4.5% Image
Also to give a sense of how not unusual this is, here is the progression in 2008.

Note that had you sold on the first hikes you not only needed the market to collapse *years* later but had ~6 months to re-enter. It's never as easy as the charts show etc.

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Here's 1964-1978 (SPX vs fed rate), prob the trickiest secular market. Even in this scenario trading the rate hike cycle proves challenging.

2/3 ends/pauses result in lower prices, but by the time the cut trough arrives markets already recovered (green dots)

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So here's the commodity grid I am watching, left side the intact stuff, right side where we are seeing breaks and/or near breaks.

Gasoline/Energy in the headlines but personally most interested in lower range on copper and the Ag trendline.

$CL_F $SPY $USO Image
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Read 18 tweets
May 27, 2022
A, this isn't a prediction, B, I get it, C, note today's refinery news.

Doubt many remember but in '06 gasoline magically dropped in the 4 months prior to the mid-term. Was also the last time we saw talks of gouging and 6 dollar gas etc.

$USO $CL_F $ES_F Image
Zoom in here on 06 vs today. The price magically dropped essentially out of the blue then recovered the following year.

The political language was nearly identical, but yes the supply, ideology, geopol etc etc factors were different (they generally are). Image
Let's see, still early in political season etc. Image
Read 6 tweets
May 13, 2022
POWELL: IN HINDSIGHT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE CAUSED A BUBBLE BECAUSE THAT IS BAD.
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