Step back on gasoline. Another inflection. ETF on left, continuous on right. I tend to know what's happening with each. Cancel out pandemic panic low, clear trendlines in play. Arguably has been biggest bull input last 6 weeks.
Always amazed how perfectly technical something can trade when the crowd is on the other side of the boat etc.
$UGA breaking 200 dma as well
☕️👀🥃
Little early on that flag but still seems in play. Note RSI jumped over 50 for couple days max.
Also to give a sense of how not unusual this is, here is the progression in 2008.
Note that had you sold on the first hikes you not only needed the market to collapse *years* later but had ~6 months to re-enter. It's never as easy as the charts show etc.
$SPX $NVDA
Here's 1964-1978 (SPX vs fed rate), prob the trickiest secular market. Even in this scenario trading the rate hike cycle proves challenging.
2/3 ends/pauses result in lower prices, but by the time the cut trough arrives markets already recovered (green dots)
A, this isn't a prediction, B, I get it, C, note today's refinery news.
Doubt many remember but in '06 gasoline magically dropped in the 4 months prior to the mid-term. Was also the last time we saw talks of gouging and 6 dollar gas etc.
$USO $CL_F $ES_F
Zoom in here on 06 vs today. The price magically dropped essentially out of the blue then recovered the following year.
The political language was nearly identical, but yes the supply, ideology, geopol etc etc factors were different (they generally are).