Buckle up. Fed is going full Inflation HAWK. 75 basis points now and again and again till stocks and housing implodes. And workers are brought back to line.
Powell wants to crush inflation. No more running the labor market hot to let wages rise. The goal now is "to get wages down" and increase employer power.
RIP #Bidenomics policytensor.substack.com/p/the-making-o…
that part above about Fed imposing worker discipline is not in quotes i.e Powell did not actually say that.
Inflation is always and everywhere a political phenomenon. Why do ordinary people hate inflation? "The answer has to do with the moral economy of price stability." That is, the consent of the governed to elite rule. Nice @policytensor thread:
Fed raises rates:
House & stocks fall
Incomes fall
Unemployment increases
Dollar soars, EM currencies fall
Debt detonates in developing countries as interest payments increase
Global recession next year
Damn this is good. Poszar may be the most creative thinker of our generation. We are going to argue that Poszar is offering Beijing a to-do list to solve their "Financial Malacca Dilemma". plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.ht…
Structure is uncovered from how shocks propagate thru a system:
Crash revealed NY-London centrality to Finance
Corona revealed Fossil-fueled 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘴 that undergird world economy
Ukraine war? Commodities & Multipolarity
"as @PMehrling taught us, always & everywhere, finance is hierarchical, & as @KatharinaPistor taught us, the laws the underpin the hierarchy of finance are flexible at the core & rigid at the periphery"
Andreas Malm's 'How to Blow Up a Pipeline (2021)' is cursed with such an incendiary title that people think they get the argument without reading the book.
3/ " What does it mean that as capitalism has become truly global, the gravediggers it has created dig not only capitalism’s grave, but also that of much organic life on earth?”- Andreas malm
What must be done? What would Lenin do? lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
There was a solution to the green problem but it involved deepening European-Russian relations. Crazy how we have terrible war because so many people keep Climate & Geopolitics in separate silos & are unable to do 'joined-up thinking'. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
We'll never know if West-Russia negotiations were done in good faith. December-January 2022:"German Economics Minister Robert Habeck wants to engage Russia economically by cooperating on renewable energy supplies to help de-escalate tensions over Ukraine"
Global food emergency needs institutional response to procure & distribute.
"During World War I, the Allies faced a similar problem: Shortages for key goods were being exacerbated by uncontrolled international competition on private markets" nytimes.com/2020/04/15/opi…
Russian and Ukrainian wheat as important to rest of world as Ru oil and gas are to Europe. Having no plan for alternatives is recipe for sociopolitical instability in both. Its why many countries in Asia & Africa abstained from UN vote to censure Russia.
Rising food prices in each country are NOT just because of blockades of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, but also driven by speculation in deregulated commodity markets hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
If there is any point to Putin 's nuclear brinksmanship and West's sanctions escalation of weekend, it is to bring everyone to the negotiating table! Thread on the HARD next phase of sanctions relief and economic+security deal that West-Russia can live with.
Not looking forward to nuclear winter. Hope sense prevails and West exchanges stoppage of war for pulling back sanctions. Punishment of russia's economy/people and talk of regime change in Moscow only fuels escalation towards MAD
Please, please don't push for a No Fly Zone. Its MAD
"I want to remind those proposing it a "No Fly Zone" would be an act of war against Russia which would result in the complete destruction of Ukraine: its churches, its people and its millions of lives."
A question to zoom out: Did high energy prices embolden Putin? Are the commodities markets responsible for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? @rupert_russell’s timely new book 'Price Wars' says: YES. penguinrandomhouse.com/books/622647/p…
2/ Moscow’s military interventions have come at times of historically high oil prices. And right now, energy prices are approaching triple digits for the second time in a decade. Previous highs:
1979 - Afghanistan invasion
2008 - Georgia invasion
2014 - Ukraine "
2022 - Ukraine "
3/ The Oil price - Conflict relationship is not unique to Russia. Russell draws on @cullenhendrix’s discovery that as oil prices increase, oil exporting petrostates are more likely to initiate military conflict. sci-hub.se/https://journa…