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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Jun 14 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Not a believer in geopolitical coincidence. Take natgas. In 2022, flows reduced exactly by the amount the EU managed to increase LNG imp (24bcm). The better than expected storage fills in the EU may made the Kremlin decide to slow deliveries down by 12bcm (NS1).

#TTF @Alpen_R Image
@hi_roger
Here is the EU storage fill in %. It's on track to be 80% filled by August which would likely reduce some risk premium for the winter of TTF. That is unlikely in the best interest of the Kremlin while the war continues.

#TTF Image
@kittysquiddy @WifeyAlpha TTF will remain elevated now. That is what Gazprom wants and it will get its will.

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12
Libya’s 2-month-old partial blockade, which already disrupted 0.5mbpd of its 1.2mbpd production, is set to become a full-fledged 1mbpd shutdown.
Unconfirmed (by NOC) reports now say that Libya's Es Sider & Ras Lanuf export terminals (a combined 0.4mbpd) are shut down too.

1/4 Image
We expect the political power struggle to take months to resolve. Take the Sharara field. Recent efforts to restart the 0.3mb/d field underline the depth of the problems, with armed protestors storming the field 24 hours after it announced a restart.

2/4
@sohaibab9 and @AzizSapphire, did we not record our Libya Spaces session? I cannot find it at least.

Thx
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25
When bad geology meets great management, it is bad geology that wins.

#PARN is likely just that - an overvalued oil exploration company with a lot of OOIP within a challenging reservoir destined to disappoint the market's high expectations.

1/n
We encountered that for Hurricane Energy ($HUR) in 2017 after extensive due diligence work.

Back then, HUR was somewhat of a "darling stock" in the UK. Kind of the hope of an aging UK North Sea E&P industry. Why? For one, the 2017 CPR claimed a 1.1bnbbl 3P resource!

2/n
Its CEO Robert Trice was a geologist & claimed to be one of only a handful "expert" globally on "Fractured Basements".
But the reservoir next to the Shetland Island was always a tough location while initial data was everything but straight forward.

3/n
Read 22 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 10
A big deal for #TTF?

Today, Ukrainian Transit Operator OGTSU annouced force majeure on gas deliveries from Russia to Slovakia (Velké entry point) due to damages of facilities in occupied territory which cannot be accessed for repairs.

1/3
tsoua.com/news/diyi-okup…
Pro memoria: Russia delivers through 3 major pipeline systems & in the form of LNG by sea.

The pipeline via Ukraine has a capacity of up to 40bcm of which 1/3 of current gas transits via Ukraine is reported to be down now (32.6mcm/d).

2/3
Our view:
- Yamal -88% YTD due to "unfriendly state" decision (GER Mallnow at zero too);
- Velké: 6.2bcm YTD, 130days x 32.6mcm/d = 4.2bcm -> 4.2/6.2 = 68% - not 33% - affected.

Ceteris paribus, EU must replace 68cm annualised to match 133bcm deliveries in 2021 by R (ex LNG)
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 5
Can the European Union ban Russian gas imports?

Answer: Faster than you might expect, but it comes down to great leadership & setting the right priorities!

Let's go - Part 3 (total of 13 tweets) with a focus on the UK.

1/n 🧵
#UkraineRussiaWar #EuropeanUnion
In part 1 we explained EU LNG and the importance of its optimial use.

2/n
In part 2 we explained the potential of more local production & illustrated the need for policy corrections such as building German LNG regasification terminals.

3/n
Read 13 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 1
Diesel - the work horse fuel of the modern economy - is mooning as we are short everything.

More precisely, wholesale Diesel prices in the US are up >100% since January 1st while crude oil prices are "only" up 38%.

1/n 🧵
Step by step. What does it mean to pay $5.35 per gallon in barrels last Thursday?

A barrel contains 42 gallons, so that $224/barrel. Canada was even worse while Cuba tries to keep its regime going (by subsidising prices at the pump).

2/n
Don't feel bad if you are based in North America because Diesel prices in Europe are even worse due to higher taxes.

Take Germany - the land of diesel cars & no speed limit. Here people pay US$2.2/liter or the equivalent of $344 per barrel. How about that for cheap energy?

3/n
Read 16 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 27
Can the European Union ban Russian gas imports?

Answer: Faster than you might expect, but it comes down to great leadership & setting the right priorities!

We continue - Part II with a total of 25 Tweets

1/n 🧵
#UkraineRussiaWar #EuropeanUnion
In part I we explained that Europe must replace 150bcm of Russian gas imports to help support the end of the Russian genocide in Ukraine.

It will also be the recipe to reduce the current risk-premium in gas prices & avoid long-lasting food shortages or a refugee crisis.

2/n
We explained that...
- (1) higher LNG imports from optimised infra & capacity utilisation can deliver up to 90bcm or 62% of 150bcm if free market prices can continue to "pull" LNG into Europe;
- (2) one-off storage potential of up to 25bcm (one winter) to buy some time...

3/n
Read 22 tweets

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